New potentially dangerous asteroid - 2013 GM3

Object is flagged as a Virtual Impactor by SENTRY (JPL)
3-day observation arc. More observations needed
Classification: Aten [NEO]
Diameter approximately 21 meters
Earth MOID = 0.0000114246 AU
Earth close approach 2026-Apr-14 17:25
Nominal Distance (AU) 0.00342429621570451
Minimum Distance (AU) 0
Maximum Distance (AU) 0.0285408415998983

JPL data: ssd.jpl.nasa.gov...

In other words, there's a chance that this asteroid will impact us, or even the Moon (according to JPL close approach table) in 2026. It's only been discovered a few days ago, so it's still early to say anything with any certainty. Let's see how this one turns out.

YAY!
Doom is back on!
great we were running out of doom there for a while....cept for NK we havent had any decent doom since fukishima.

So in 13 years it will possibly impact? Am I understanding this right? And it's 21 meters in diameter? So basically similar to the one that flew over Russia last month?

Not doomy enough for me, too far off.

This rock makes a number of real close encounters with Venus in that time span. The exact orbital effect can throw these numbers way off so don't expect any real conclusive data to come out for another 6-8 years.

The scariest 63ft asteroid you'll ever meet!

reply to post by wildespace


Oh darn- thought we had some real doom there for a second, but according to my calculations, in April 2026 that thing is still going to be well over 300,000 miles nominal distance from earth. They'll get a better clue once more observations are done over time. Too bad, I was ready to bring in my tomato plants, lock and load, and tell Intrepid what I really think of him. j/k.

reply to post by SunnyDee


I was freaking out until I read you're post. The fact that its the size of the meteor that just flew over Russia means its not an ELE. I feel better now. Thanks!

The one in Russia was 17 to 20 meters, and was stony, with many fractures. If this one is much denser, like a solid iron meteoroid, it might make it all the way to the ground and cause bigger harm.

From: www.hohmanntransfer.com...

2010 GM23 - approaching
Approximate diameter 40 meters (H=24.663)
Closest Earth approach 3.87 LD at 2259 UT on 13 April 2013 - Note: JPL reports an approach uncertainty of +/- 2.260 days
Inside Earth's Hill sphere 13 to 14 April 2013
Inside ten LD of Earth 10 to 17 April 2013
Data based on JPL SSD orbit solution #7 downloaded from JPL on 4 April 2013 UTC (dated 14 Sept. 2011 local) based on 54 observations spanning 5 days
Optical observation none recent
Notes risk
Links JPL Small-Body Database NEODyS Close Approaches

40 metres in diameter not 21, this site says that it is twice the size stated above...

Not sure what is correct here another page gives different measurements:

Object Risk Monitor When Noted UTC 0000T0000 Year Range VI # 000NN00 Prob Cum T0000 PS Cum T0000 PS Max T S Notes for Today's Latest Risk Assessments 2013 GM3 JPL Sentry 1700 2026-2113 619 2.8e-03 -2.60 -2.60 0 JPL #2 for the day: "Analysis based on 27 observations spanning 2.6253 days (2013-Apr-03.32112 to 2013-Apr-05.94644)." Diameter approximately 0.021 km. from mean, weighted H=26.0. NEODyS 1544 2026-2090 134 1.65e-04 -4.01 -4.1 0 NEODyS: "Based on 27 optical observations (of which 1 are rejected as outliers) from 2013-04-03.322 to 2013-04-05.947."

reply to post by whatnext21


Yeah, they gave a different absolute magnitude for this asteroid, 24.663 instead of JPL's 26.026.

You can use this online calculator to convert absolute magnitude to diameter: www.physics.sfasu.edu... For JPL's magnitude it gives the average of 21m, but for the one you gave first it's 40m.

JPL tend to be a bit behind the latest calculations from astronomers, so it maybe simply the matter of catching up.

Um if the Russian Asteroid had remained in tact for a few more seconds it's explosion would have flatened about 1000 miles. Thats doom enough for anyone lol.

Originally posted by TrueAmerican
reply to post by wildespace

 

Oh darn- thought we had some real doom there for a second, but according to my calculations, in April 2026 that thing is still going to be well over 300,000 miles nominal distance from earth. They'll get a better clue once more observations are done over time. Too bad, I was ready to bring in my tomato plants, lock and load, and tell Intrepid what I really think of him.

j/k.

Hey TA, not to nitpick... buuuuut....

92,955,807.267433 (1 AU) x .0000114246 (minimal approach in AU) = 1,061.9829157075 miles... let's just call it an even 1,062 miles on closest approach. That's a bit closer than I would like, considering that it can change so significantly between now and then due to its approach to Venus.

I'd rather use your calculator.

~Namaste

I did read (this weekend) about NASA trying to tow an asteroid into our orbit. The goal is to create permanent space settlements for humans, and that this was part of a broader project.

We are becoming more space faring and I love it.

reply to post by ButterCookie


I wish they would just build the U.S.S Enterprise NCC-1701-D and just get it over with.

In regards to the asteroid; the movie, "Seeking A Friend for the End of the World" has taught me everything I need to know in case of an asteroid impact. Spend the last days on Earth with the people you love most. Live your life to the very last day. Go out with a smile.

lol, 21 metres, I can catch that with a baseball mitt.

2013 GM3 Earth Impact Risk Summary: neo.jpl.nasa.gov...

At the moment, it gives 1 in 10,000,000 (ten million) chance of impact in 2026, or 99.99999000% chance that the asteroid will miss the Earth. But the cumulative impact probability (which, if I understand correctly, takes into account future close approaches) is 1 in 11,000 chance, and "The Number of Potential Impacts" is given as 151.

So even if it misses us in 2026, it's still one to watch out for.

Hey TA, not to nitpick... buuuuut....

92,955,807.267433 (1 AU) x .0000114246 (minimal approach in AU) = 1,061.9829157075 miles... let's just call it an even 1,062 miles on closest approach.

The nominal close approach distance (basically the centre of the error range) is 0.00342429621570451AU. That equates to roughly 510,000 kms, which is further out than the orbit of the Moon. The distance that you have quoted (0.0000114246AU) is the MOID (Minimum Orbit Intersection Distance). This is the closest point between the ORBITS of the Earth and 2013GM3, not the objects themselves.

Can't you find something a little closer to cause mass destruction to the planet. That is a long time from now. By then I may have alzheimers. I will definitely be more worried if I can poop or pee right in thirteen years than whether an asteroid is going to hit