Why The Korean War is Inevitable!

Welcome to the vast darkness of my mind ATS….

I know another North Korea thread but please stick with it,

This is important; through a thorough analysis of the current situation on the Korean Peninsula I have come to the conclusion that war is imminent. We have gone beyond a “if” to a “when”, there is going to be a war and if you take the time to read this thread you will understand why I have come to this conclusion.

Some Background

As well all know since the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK, North Korea) tested a nuclear device last tensions have been running high. Though a series of events that have all been well documented on ATS following this test right now for many we are teetering on the brink of a new war.

Well I say a new war but something that is often left out of the media coverage of this recent war of words between North Korea and the rest of the world is that North Korea and South Korea are currently locked in a state of war. These two states have been at war with each other ever since 1950 a war that is still technically on-going (link) . The Korean Armistice agreement of 1953 was only ever intended as a cease fire, it was not a peace treaty or a formal declaration of peace between the two opposing states and to this day they are at war.

It is this same document that on March 11 2013 that North Korea formally declared “invalid”, in otherworld’s that they were no longer recognising this ceasefire. Now one might read this and think “My God! No ceasefire, they’re going to go to war” well North Korea are a little bit like the boy who cried wolf because they have said this at least 6 times in the past and we have not seen any war. As such very few seemed to care when they said it this time but this empty claim was just the start. In the weeks that followed North Korea cut off the communications to the south, said they had entered a state of war, restarted their nuclear facility, threated America with nuclear Armageddon then close the Kaesong industrial zone to the south and just today (5/4/13) they start loading up missile tubes. And in the middle of all of this we have daily threats from North Korea and the incandescent propaganda of the DPRK state media.

Many quite rightly point out that this just fitting with a pattern that we see every few years on the Korean peninsula. DPRK tests a nuke, we all jump up and down like excited monkeys complain to the U.N then North Korea starts getting, then China wades in and convinces North Korea to shut up and it all blows over.

So that begs the question this time…..

Why There Will Be War?

The answer is quite complex but hear is why my analysis of this situation has lead me to believe that war or at least a shot being fired in anger is an inevitability

North Korea as we all know is a communist state headed up by a dictator with the backing of his generals. The population of North Korea starve, there are up to 200,000 people in concentration camps, they have no freedom of speech and people live in abject poverty as the ruling elite focus on spending obscene sums of money on their pursuit of nuclear weapons. To keep the very unhappy people in line the dictator, Kim Jong-un relies on the military and state police to keep the people in line it is the generals of Korea who therefore whiled the real power (and lil kims aunt and uncle).

These generals see North Koreas nuclear weapons program as the saving grace of the state. They believe that these weapons will deter an American/ South Korean invasion of their homeland based on the presumption that they would not risk a nuclear attack. They also command a massive army that they are not afraid to use, just take a look at the number of clashes between North Korean forces and South Korean forces on the border. In short North Korea is not afraid to use its forces to attack their southern neighbour but at the same time South Korea has yet to retaliate with significant military force. The 2010 attack by North Korea on Yeonpyeng is a perfect example of this however so far young kimmy has been all talk.

As a young leader with little known military experience Kim Jong-un has been forced to appease the generals he has to appear as a strong leader otherwise they will perform a coup. As such much of the recent rhetoric has been about little Kim consolidating his power, trying to appear like a tough guy in front of daddy’s old friends so they don’t cut off his head.

This in my view is part of the problem that has sent us on a path to war, Kim Jong-un is a different beast compared to his father and as such it would be naive to assume that history is going to repeat itself and all this tough talk from North Korea is going to just go away. While yes little Kim might not be the one who is truly holding onto the power, he is none the less the commander in chief of the armed forces of DPRK. He has to at the very least appear to be a strong leader and in doing so he is arguably even more dangerous than his farther as one Senior official put it

The new leader is acting in ways a bit more extreme than his father, who was colder and more calculated I don't recall he ever went this far in terms of the pace and scope of the rhetoric.

Threatening to launch nukes directly against the United States and South Korea confirms what a lot of people have been saying, which is we are dealing with someone new

Link

This unpredictability and keenness to appease the generals of North Korea is only one small part of the bigger problem. With so much rhetoric of war and promises of strong action Kim Jong-un has backed himself into a corner. So far he has been all talk with no action something that the old generals are not opposed to. It is not out with the realms of possibility that soon the generals will demand some action to back up these tough words and there will be a small attack launched by North Korea against its Southern neighbour. This assessment of the situation has been backed up by Sue-mi Terry North Korean analyst for the CIA and now a Columbia university professor who has said that:

North Korea will launch an attack, it will be something sneaky and creative and hard to definitively trace back to North Korea to avoid international condemnation and immediate retaliation from Washington or Seoul

Link

Professor Terry goes on to point out that in her assessment the North will launch a small scale attack in order to prevent a all-out war against South Korea, a war with she said the North knows it would lose. However also points out the dangers of a miscalculation with the new president of South Korea, Park Geun-hye promising a strong military retaliation against any North Korean aggression. Such a miscalculation in my mind is a likely scenario.

Path to war.

As discussed above we have very strong rhetoric form a young North Korean leader trying to prove himself and we have the new president of South Korea promising strong action against any North Korean aggression. In the background of all of this we have a nuclear weapons test, a large scale military exercise angering the North Koreans, the mobilisation of Chinese troops and America mobilising its missile defence shield running around like they’re at DEFCON 2. It’s only going to take one wrong move and this is going to blow up (hopefully not in the literal sense with a nuclear bomb).

If North Korea makes any further shows of aggression something is going to have to give and force retaliation. This could be anything really it could be a small boarder skirmish or North Korea testing another missile, it could even be them claiming to have done something by accident, but something will happen. Kim needs to put his words into action to continue to appease these generals to consolidate his power and the military exercises offer up the best excuse possible.

Whatever it is that does happen its then going to force the hand of the new south Korean president who will have to hit North Korea with a strong retaliation as she had gone on record saying she will do. This will lead to a tit for tat situation as neither leader wants to appear to be week, it will eventually drag American forces into a war. Once this tit for tat escalates into a full war the only option for peace is going to be the unification of the Korean peninsula and the destruction of the DPRK regime.

To Finish.

Essentially what I am saying here is that pretty soon little kim is going to have to act to appease his generals this is going to lead to a strong retaliation form South Korea. As neither of these two leaders can aboard to appear week it is going to lead to a tit for tat escalation of arm conflict that is eventually going to drag America into a full blown war that will only end with the unification of Korea. It is my stern belief that this will happen in months.

Some might disagree with my assessment and if I am honest I can see both sides to the argument and I totally understand the counter argument that this will just all blow over, I honestly hope that it does.

I also know that some will call this thread “fear mongering”, that is not my intention however I do think that we do have something to fear in how this situation has developed.

I apologise for the length of this thread.

Great post.
Star & flag for you.

I think you might be on to something.
He needs to do something to forever cement in the minds of other countries how far he's willing to go.
It's like he's the little guy willing to hit the bully on the nose if they don't leave him alone.

I'd say look for something serious soon.

Great thread - I'd like to join in with a theory of mine on another reason I believe some conflict is inevitable - but it's going to take me a few to get back to you.

I'll be interested to see what others have to say about your theory/info.

peace

reply to post by OtherSideOfTheCoin


Why do you kinda want it to blow over? See I am not a war monger or anything, but if you take the regime out now then you don't have to give them time to make a more useful nuclear bomb....

If it blows over and they are this serious with the bombs they have, whose to say in 10 years they won't be fully capable of reaching the USA with a nuclear warhead?

Take him out, let China take over rule of the Korea territory like they want and bring the troops home quick.....Tactical missile attacks on all weapons cache locations and military.....THAT'S IT!!

Then come home and get some sleep, it might take 2 hours total to wipe them out without nukes.....

reply to post by Chrisfishenstein


That my friend actually encroaches onto another thread I was thinking about writing about why America does want a war against North Korea and a large bit of that is about nuclear proliferation .

It is interesting to note that North Korea has been caught out supplying nuclear technology to other states such a Syria.

One big threat is that North Korea sell a nuclear weapon to say Iran.

Another reason would be like you say prevent them developing other significant technology such as the ability to put their nuclear war head on a ICBM.

Indeed even a strike against their nuclear instillations would be in Americas interests to prevent them further developing nuclear weapons technology.

I think your hypothesis is a very good one. The only thing I might add is that it could be the UN sanctions are really starting to strangle NKorea. They simply may be out of money. Without money the natives are getting restless so-to-speak. I also think the US may be pushing their buttons on purpose this time, so they can get it over once and for all. If NKorea is to fall, the US damn sure wants to be the ones that go in there instead of the Chinese, if they want to keep it that is.

Edit: I've had another idea as well. Maybe this is a gift from the US to China. The US owes China a lot of money. Maybe they are paying China back by putting North Korea on a silver platter for China to come in and clean house. Kind of a, "we'll start it, if you finish it" type thing.

reply to post by OtherSideOfTheCoin


You make a lot of sense and I really don't think that you are fear mongering.

I have the local news on right now and they reported that (Mr. Kim Jong-un leader of NK ) has given foreign embassies until April 10, 2013 to get out of North Korea; and that if they don't leave by then; that will be their bad luck.

Originally posted by Sandcastler
I think your hypothesis is a very good one. The only thing I might add is that it could be the UN sanctions are really starting to strangle NKorea. They simply may be out of money. Without money the natives are getting restless so-to-speak. I also think the US may be pushing their buttons on purpose this time, so they can get it over once and for all. If NKorea is to fall, the US damn sure wants to be the ones that go in there instead of the Chinese, if they want to keep it that is.

Edit: I've had another idea as well. Maybe this is a gift from the US to China. The US owes China a lot of money. Maybe they are paying China back by putting North Korea on a silver platter for China to come in and clean house. Kind of a, "we'll start it, if you finish it" type thing.

edit on 5-4-2013 by Sandcastler because: (no reason given)

edit on 5-4-2013 by Sandcastler because: (no reason given)

I think China may prefer things just the way they are, using NoKo as a buffer zone against US bases.

also i think that war is not only going to happen..but rather sooner than later...I can imagine Kim watching his beloved weaponry getting old..all the arsenal they have are coming from the cold war era...i think he knows that if war doesnt break out now..in a couple of years it will be hard for them to update their military and keep up to date as to be a threat to the united stated and south korea


billions are needed...billions and north koreans already spent and cannot see how they can spend again..not to mention military maintenance.

I think now..that all we are seeing now..is the result of years of sanctions...north korea is falling into pieces

reply to post by Sandcastler


We owe Japan the same amount of money what makes China so special? China isn't on the level as much as ATS wants it to be they just cant handle a US offensive. China wants no part of this. That';s why they have stopped backing NK so much they want NK to relax and keep status quo. What debt do we have to China if we obliterate them?

China has there own issues as they are drowning in there own filth. They need to expand or make environmental changes and they don't seem to be making any significant environmental changes. They will be expanding soon enough. They need time for more carriers and technology upgrades before they can match US. A war now is against their best interests.

NK will back off, they always do, and if they do launch now it plays into the US hands. Because then they get assimilated and we stand on China's doorstep. Neither NK or China wants this. This will cool down and cool down quickly.

reply to post by OtherSideOfTheCoin


There will be no war on the Korean Peninsula - their leader is like a spoilt child seeking headlines and world attention.

North Korea would be squashed like an ant if they even dared to fire a nuclear missle.

I am not in the least worried.

It is all rhetoric and big mouthing...

I can see your point. I feel like Kim, being raised under the regime may have been brainwashed by their own propaganda. His father probably remembers the Korean war, but little Kim was too young. I think about Saddam Husein's sons and their psychopathy from being raised in that environment. That is what makes me concerned that he is going down a road that he has to act on, and maybe believes he can win. I don't recall China putting troops and planes on the northern border when his father would pull the usual stunt every spring, but this time they are. Why? Does China expect he may actually start a war? And now that they have nukes, and no one really know how many, he may think he can do what he wants and not lose the country doing so.

Definitely a serious situation brewing. In 1989 when I was in the Army, we were told our next war would be with Iraq or North Korea. I always wonder how they knew this so far in advance about Iraq if it wasn't already in the planning phase for 1991.

One other thing I haven't read in these threads on this subject is the Pentagons war plans for North Korea. I remember they came out during another incident that the US planed to nuke North of the DMZ to wipe out the majority of the troops and equipment headed South if that eventuality happened. The reason was that there were not enough troops or time to stop them otherwise. So, if little Kim did set off a nuclear device somewhere, and started a massive troop movement to the South, things could blow up very quickly. Of course, Bush was in office when the war plan came out and I can't say Obama would do the same thing. Different administration and all.

Originally posted by spirit_horse

I feel like Kim, being raised under the regime may have been brainwashed by their own propaganda. His father probably remembers the Korean war, but little Kim was too young. I think about Saddam Husein's sons and their psychopathy from being raised in that environment. That is what makes me concerned that he is going down a road that he has to act on, and maybe believes he can win.

What you have stated above a friend of mine and I were discussing yesterday. It seems to us that he is lethally programmed and crazy.

At this point I am just as concerned with this administration.We do have a history of going to war around depression time.

WELL, all Kim Jong Un has to do is go on TV and say "The agressors have backed down!" and the people will cheer and go back to their day-to-day.

HOWEVER, at WHAT POINT is SK/US/JAP/CHN going to say "Enough is enough." The international bullying has to stop and something is done.


Hopefully in my life time. I would love to see the North Koreas faces when they see 70 inch HD Tv's, huge modern light structures, iphones

*Yawn*

Are 500 North Koreans going to throw a missile at anybody? Cause that's pretty much the only way it doesn't get shot out of the sky 5 minutes after launch.

The only concern I have is NK unleashing an artillery barrage towards SK.

Missiles however, well..I'm less than enthusiastic and trusting of their delivery capabilities, than I am about our intercept capabilities.

~Tenth

I don't think that a war with N. Korea is Inevitable. China has opened up it's market a lot.
It's more of a part of the world economy. The USA is a major part of China's economy.
We buy all their crap. If there is a war with N. Korea, then no one will be buying Chinas crap.
And China will suffer greatly.

My prediction .. China is embarrassed by the leadership in N. Korea and they'll either force them to pull back their rhetoric .. or China will take them out and install someone who is actually sane.

That's my guess.

reply to post by tothetenthpower

The only concern I have is NK unleashing an artillery barrage towards SK.

you mean like they did in 2010?

I think everything we are being told is propaganda, NoKo knows it is outgunned and no-one there wants to die, its Nukes are its only defence and the fact that NoKo are threatening to use them means they know an attack against them is imminent, Further, China is boosting its spending on military and is strengthening its ties with Russia.

If the West want their best chance of taking NoKo the time is now, I feel.