Welcome to the vast darkness of my mind ATS….
I know another North Korea thread but please stick with it,
This is important; through a thorough analysis of the current situation on the Korean Peninsula I have come to the conclusion that war is imminent.
We have gone beyond a “if” to a “when”, there is going to be a war and if you take the time to read this thread you will understand why I have
come to this conclusion.
As well all know since the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK, North Korea) tested a nuclear device last tensions have been running high.
Though a series of events that have all been well documented on ATS following this test right now for many we are teetering on the brink of a new war.
Well I say a new war but something that is often left out of the media coverage of this recent war of words between North Korea and the rest of the
world is that North Korea and South Korea are currently locked in a state of war. These two states have been at war with each other ever since 1950 a
war that is still technically on-going (link
) . The Korean Armistice agreement of
1953 was only ever intended as a cease fire, it was not a peace treaty or a formal declaration of peace between the two opposing states and to this
day they are at war.
It is this same document that on March 11 2013 that North Korea formally declared “invalid”, in otherworld’s that they were no longer
recognising this ceasefire. Now one might read this and think “My God! No ceasefire, they’re going to go to war” well North Korea are a little
bit like the boy who cried wolf because they have said this at least 6 times in the past and we have not seen any war. As such very few seemed to care
when they said it this time but this empty claim was just the start. In the weeks that followed North Korea cut off the communications to the south,
said they had entered a state of war, restarted their nuclear facility, threated America with nuclear Armageddon then close the Kaesong industrial
zone to the south and just today (5/4/13) they start loading up missile tubes. And in the middle of all of this we have daily threats from North Korea
and the incandescent propaganda of the DPRK state media.
Many quite rightly point out that this just fitting with a pattern that we see every few years on the Korean peninsula. DPRK tests a nuke, we all jump
up and down like excited monkeys complain to the U.N then North Korea starts getting, then China wades in and convinces North Korea to shut up and it
all blows over.
So that begs the question this time…..
Why There Will Be War?
The answer is quite complex but hear is why my analysis of this situation has lead me to believe that war or at least a shot being fired in anger is
North Korea as we all know is a communist state headed up by a dictator with the backing of his generals. The population of North Korea starve, there
are up to 200,000 people in concentration camps, they have no freedom of speech and people live in abject poverty as the ruling elite focus on
spending obscene sums of money on their pursuit of nuclear weapons. To keep the very unhappy people in line the dictator, Kim Jong-un relies on the
military and state police to keep the people in line it is the generals of Korea who therefore whiled the real power (and lil kims aunt and uncle).
These generals see North Koreas nuclear weapons program as the saving grace of the state. They believe that these weapons will deter an American/
South Korean invasion of their homeland based on the presumption that they would not risk a nuclear attack. They also command a massive army that they
are not afraid to use, just take a look at the number of clashes between North Korean forces and South Korean forces on the border. In short North
Korea is not afraid to use its forces to attack their southern neighbour but at the same time South Korea has yet to retaliate with significant
military force. The 2010 attack by North Korea on Yeonpyeng is a perfect example of this however so far young kimmy has been all talk.
As a young leader with little known military experience Kim Jong-un has been forced to appease the generals he has to appear as a strong leader
otherwise they will perform a coup. As such much of the recent rhetoric has been about little Kim consolidating his power, trying to appear like a
tough guy in front of daddy’s old friends so they don’t cut off his head.
This in my view is part of the problem that has sent us on a path to war, Kim Jong-un is a different beast compared to his father and as such it would
be naive to assume that history is going to repeat itself and all this tough talk from North Korea is going to just go away. While yes little Kim
might not be the one who is truly holding onto the power, he is none the less the commander in chief of the armed forces of DPRK. He has to at the
very least appear to be a strong leader and in doing so he is arguably even more dangerous than his farther as one Senior official put it
The new leader is acting in ways a bit more extreme than his father, who was colder and more calculated I don't recall he ever went this far in terms
of the pace and scope of the rhetoric.
Threatening to launch nukes directly against the United States and South Korea confirms what a lot of people have been saying, which is we are dealing
with someone new
This unpredictability and keenness to appease the generals of North Korea is only one small part of the bigger problem. With so much rhetoric of war
and promises of strong action Kim Jong-un has backed himself into a corner. So far he has been all talk with no action something that the old generals
are not opposed to. It is not out with the realms of possibility that soon the generals will demand some action to back up these tough words and there
will be a small attack launched by North Korea against its Southern neighbour. This assessment of the situation has been backed up by Sue-mi Terry
North Korean analyst for the CIA and now a Columbia university professor who has said that:
North Korea will launch an attack, it will be something sneaky and creative and hard to definitively trace back to North Korea to avoid international
condemnation and immediate retaliation from Washington or Seoul
Professor Terry goes on to point out that in her assessment the North will launch a small scale attack in order to prevent a all-out war against South
Korea, a war with she said the North knows it would lose. However also points out the dangers of a miscalculation with the new president of South
Korea, Park Geun-hye promising a strong military retaliation against any North Korean aggression. Such a miscalculation in my mind is a likely
edit on 5-4-2013 by OtherSideOfTheCoin because: (no reason given)