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Washington, Apr 5 (ANI): Global population data spanning the years from 1900 to 2010 have enabled researchers to predict that the number of people on Earth will stabilise around the middle of the century, a report has said.
The results, obtained with a model used by a research team from the Autonomous University of Madrid, coincide with the UN's downward forecasts.
According to United Nations' estimates, the world population in 2100 will be within a range between 15.8 billion people according to the highest estimates, high fertility variant- and 6.2 billion according to the lowest, low fertility variant, a figure that stands below the current 7 billion.
A mathematical model developed by a team from the Autonomous University of Madrid (UAM) and the CEU-San Pablo University, both from Spain, seems to confirm the lower estimate, in addition to a standstill and even a slight drop in the number of people on Earth by the mid-21st century.
Originally posted by tadaman
According to the UN and everyone else the worlds population is and has been shrinking for some time now.
Studies like this make sure it will never pick back up due to over population paranoia.
Originally posted by ForwardDrift
Does anyone know where I can find the actual paper for this thesis/data? What were their variables in this study?
During the initial stage, i.e., during the lag phase, the rate of plant growth is slow. Rate of growth then increases rapidly during the exponential phase. After some time the growth rate slowly decreases due to limitation of nutrients. This phase constitutes the stationary phase.
The curve obtained by plotting growth and time is called a growth curve. It is a typical sigmoid or S- shaped curve.
Here is the university website which is in spanish. There are research centers. Sorry I dont know spanish
Originally posted by ForwardDrift
Does anyone know where I can find the actual paper for this thesis/data? What were their variables in this study?
Originally posted by grey9438
reply to post by hp1229
well it makes sense that at some point we would hit the carrying capacity that the earth can support. Though new technology does increase food and water resources.
Originally posted by grey9438
reply to post by Hopechest
well I did mention new technology but I did not think about increasing the space to grow and inhabit so it owuld be hard to tell what the overall population would be.
Originally posted by Hopechest
Originally posted by grey9438
reply to post by Hopechest
well I did mention new technology but I did not think about increasing the space to grow and inhabit so it owuld be hard to tell what the overall population would be.
Actually if the world all worked together we could easily farm enough plants and animals and fish and find enough room for an indefinite expansion of the human race.
If push came to shove, we do have the technology to start building colonies on the moon as well as food up there. Might not be the most ideal solution at this point but it is possible.
Excellent job. Thanks for posting the supporting links. Star for you.
Originally posted by ForwardDrift
While I couldn't find the updated version (2013) as I would have to pay for that here, I did manage to find the working version of the paper (2011), which contains some of the equations/theory. Perhaps someone more familiar with statistics and mathematical models can elaborate a little more.
Here is the pdf for the working paper: Working Paper
Maybe I'm wrong, but I still just see a mathematical model based on available biomass to human fertility rates. I don't see any consideration for other factors, is this an accurate perception on my part or no? And if so, I questions the validity of using such a model....