USA March Unemployment, Disaster. Lowest worker rate since 1979!

Originally posted by octotom
reply to post by hoochymama

 

Per my understanding that 7% only is those in the labor force.

Yes obviously lots of hidden unemployed, for example black unemployment is much higher and has historically been above 10% for over 5 years so most of those unemployed have fallen off the books long ago..

Is the Dow Jones telegraphing?
14,565.25 Down 40.86(0.28%) Apr 5

Unemployment stood at 5.8 in October 1994 down from its peak of 7.8 during the 1992 recession. 6 months later it again bobbed up to 5.8 and remained above 5.5 till 1996.

We could be in an April fools recovery with a 29 style depression hidden for the history books.

Can any of these economic indicators be read with any kind of confidence?

Originally posted by xedocodex
I love how when the unemployment rate goes down, people have to find other numbers that aren't usually used as a measure to complain about.

Unemployment dropped to 7.6% in March...still continuing the downward trend it has been...hence an improving economy.

It's amazing that there is a group of people that hope that the economy isn't recovering just so they can trash on Obama some more.

Give it up people...History will show that Obama pulled this country out of a nose dive...that is just historic fact.

Yes,but more people are retiring, which means Romney is automatically the Lord and Savior!

Seriously though, you're right. It would be like making a big deal about the number of auto accidents in 2012 being higher than in 1912. Gee - I wonder if there's a good explanation for that. And then people back it up by saying this company or that is laying people off - companies are ALWAYS laying people off! The fact is, hiring has been steadily increasing. Around me, all I hear about is companies hiring.

Originally posted by xedocodex

Originally posted by camaro68ss
reply to post by St Udio

 

That’s a good theory you have. Either way the economy is not improving. All the numbers are fudged! I don’t even believe the numbers that are out right now. The numbers released are spun and are at least twice as worse as reported.

But you are using the numbers that the government has released to bitch and moan about the economy.

So in your mind it is ok to cherry pick numbers you want to believe...as long as you can complain about them?

You can live in your perpetual state of gloom if you want...I'll live in reality where almost all aspects of the economy are improving....housing, jobs, stock market, etc.

Nothing is improving.
These figures don't mean anything when they aren't in context.
For example, putting job growth into context is comparing the jobs created by how many needs to be created to take into account the amount of people entering the work force.
Putting unemployment figures into context is by also taking into account people who aren't looking for work, the economically inactive.
It seems like the only people doing the cherry picking are the governments spinning figures and not giving all the facts.
And the rise in the stock market has nothing to do with how well the economy is doing.
When you have vast amounts of money being printed by QE then that money has to go somewhere.
The stock market is the only place where this money will end up because nothing else will yield any kind of meaningful return because interest rates are so low and the economy isn't moving.
And who do you think are the kind of people investing vast amounts of money in the stock market? The man on the street? no. So why is this any kind of indicator of how well an economy is doing?
And this inflation of asset prices will eventually find it's way into the rest of the economy and result in a sharp rise in inflation.
It's the same thing all over again. Everyones getting drunk on borrowed money and creating this illusion that everythings fine, until the next hangover arrives, and the cure for that will be more alcohol, more money printing, and it will continue until eventually something will give.

Originally posted by xedocodex
I love how when the unemployment rate goes down, people have to find other numbers that aren't usually used as a measure to complain about.

Unemployment dropped to 7.6% in March...still continuing the downward trend it has been...hence an improving economy.

It's amazing that there is a group of people that hope that the economy isn't recovering just so they can trash on Obama some more.

Give it up people...History will show that Obama pulled this country out of a nose dive...that is just historic fact.

Wow, what a load of rhetoric (really want to say bull#)....there is a reason why certain criteria aren't being used to measure unemployment - it would show how bad things are.

Yes, unemployment is going down - because people have stopped looking for work. Are you so blinded by leftist rhetoric you can not see this?

Originally posted by xedocodex

Originally posted by camaro68ss
reply to post by St Udio

 

That’s a good theory you have. Either way the economy is not improving. All the numbers are fudged! I don’t even believe the numbers that are out right now. The numbers released are spun and are at least twice as worse as reported.

But you are using the numbers that the government has released to bitch and moan about the economy.

So in your mind it is ok to cherry pick numbers you want to believe...as long as you can complain about them?

You can live in your perpetual state of gloom if you want...I'll live in reality where almost all aspects of the economy are improving....housing, jobs, stock market, etc.

The stock market is being propped up by cheap money from the FED, the government is doing all it can to maintain the housing bubble.......and looking at your statement you must own stock in the Democrat kool-aid factory.

reply to post by ownbestenemy

From the government. So the nation added 88K jobs; but nearly half a million dropped out of the labor force. That isn't good news.

You have no way of telling if that is good or not. People dropping out of the work force does not automatically mean it is a bad thing for the economy. People retire, people die, people go back to school, women have babies and decide to not go back to work, people get hurt and can't work anymore...none of those indicate bad news for the economy. Those jobs are still there, it's just the people that filled them are no longer filling them...so in that case it would be a good thing because we now have open jobs. Of course there are other reasons like people just giving up...but as far as I know there is no way to find a breakdown of these numbers.

You can't really make a determination if it would be a good thing or bad thing when the participation rate drops. It has been steadily dropping since 2000 due to baby boomers retiring. So when people all of a sudden want to focus on the participation rate instead of the unemployment rate (which they have been obsessed with for 5 years), it is only because they know the unemployment rate is improving and so you need to find something else to complain about.

Originally posted by octotom
reply to post by xedocodex

 

Can we really say that the unemployment went down though? As far as I know those that aren't in the labor force aren't counted toward the unenployment number. This would mean that if those 90 million people where looking for work, unemployment would go up. That's almost 1/3 of the US population!

Yes, we can say that the unemployment went down. It is the exact same formula that has been used for decades...so why all of a sudden doubt it?

Those aren't in the labor force should not be counted. They consist of people under 16 years old, full time students, stay at home moms (dads too), and people who are retired. I'm sure there are more qualifiers, but that is just off the top of my head. These people should not be considered "unemployed" because they aren't looking for a job...hence...not participating in the labor force.

Originally posted by xedocodex
reply to post by surrealist

 

If the 63.3 per cent participation rate had remained at the previous month's 63.5 per cent rate, the UE rate would have gone up, possibly close to 8 per cent.

No, it would have remained exactly the same.

The unemployment rate is the unemployed divided by the labor force. If you add all those that fell out of the participation rate, you add them to both the unemployed numbers and the labor force...they cancel each other out and there is no change.

So no, the participation rate falling doesn't effect the unemployment rate at all.

I can admit when I'm wrong...and I should of known better to try to post while so tired. My math is off in this post...the unemployment rate wouldn't stay the same.

But the fact is that we have no idea why those people fell out of the participation rate, so you can't really make any claim on if they rate would increase or decrease or stay the same if they didn't drop out. You can't automatically count them as "unemployed" because they may have died, retired, went back to school, etc.

Just wanted to clear that up.

reply to post by SpaceMonkeys

These figures don't mean anything when they aren't in context.

They are in perfect context because you can compare them to all the other unemployment figures that use the exact same formulas.

It is so sad that when our economy is actually improving, so many people are hoping for it's failure. Just because your situation, or your own communities situation hasn't improved does not mean the economy as a whole hasn't.

reply to post by MidnightTide

Wow, what a load of rhetoric (really want to say bull#)....there is a reason why certain criteria aren't being used to measure unemployment - it would show how bad things are.

Were those critera ever used to measure unemployment???

If they weren't before, why would you want to use them now?

Yes, unemployment is going down - because people have stopped looking for work. Are you so blinded by leftist rhetoric you can not see this?

Prove it.

Originally posted by MidnightTide

Originally posted by xedocodex
I love how when the unemployment rate goes down, people have to find other numbers that aren't usually used as a measure to complain about.

Unemployment dropped to 7.6% in March...still continuing the downward trend it has been...hence an improving economy.

It's amazing that there is a group of people that hope that the economy isn't recovering just so they can trash on Obama some more.

Give it up people...History will show that Obama pulled this country out of a nose dive...that is just historic fact.

Wow, what a load of rhetoric (really want to say bull#)....there is a reason why certain criteria aren't being used to measure unemployment - it would show how bad things are.

Yes, unemployment is going down - because people have stopped looking for work. Are you so blinded by leftist rhetoric you can not see this?

The stock market is being propped up by cheap money from the FED, the government is doing all it can to maintain the housing bubble.......and looking at your statement you must own stock in the Democrat kool-aid factory.

edit on 6-4-2013 by MidnightTide because: (no reason given)

Have no fear NEW JOBS are on the way!

You too can become a ' Navigator '.

Qualifications: You must be an Obama Kool-Aid drinker.

Congratulations! You're hired! Welcome aboard! We have a cool training program (not really).

Originally posted by xedocodex
reply to post by MidnightTide

 

Wow, what a load of rhetoric (really want to say bull#)....there is a reason why certain criteria aren't being used to measure unemployment - it would show how bad things are.

Were those critera ever used to measure unemployment???

If they weren't before, why would you want to use them now?

Yes, unemployment is going down - because people have stopped looking for work. Are you so blinded by leftist rhetoric you can not see this?

Prove it.

danielamerman.com...

Now come on, it is very apparent that the number of people in the workforce is decreasing, this explains why the unemployment rate is going down.

Just take a look at the U6 unemployment numbers, it doesn't show a pretty picture:

portalseven.com...


Things are not looking good at all, they are getting worse. Governments around the globe have been able to sell the continued illusion of a recovery because they are spending trillions of dollars - trillions of dollars out of nothing.

reply to post by MidnightTide

Now come on, it is very apparent that the number of people in the workforce is decreasing, this explains why the unemployment rate is going down.

Sorry, but you are wrong.

What don't you understand about retirement, death, or leaving the workforce for other reasons besides the lack of jobs?

Prove to me that all the people that left the workforce did so because there are no jobs.

Just take a look at the U6 unemployment numbers, it doesn't show a pretty picture:

The U6 unemployment is never pretty. It is back to pre-recession numbers and it is still falling along with the U3. You can't try to compare today's U6 with the past U3 numbers, that is just being dishonest.

Things are not looking good at all, they are getting worse. Governments around the globe have been able to sell the continued illusion of a recovery because they are spending trillions of dollars - trillions of dollars out of nothing.

I know that you and others are cheering for doom and gloom and very desperately want to say that Obama has not recovered the economy. But it just doesn't match reality.

In 10 years, maybe you will come to your senses when your kids or grandkids are learning about the 2008/2009 recession and how Obama's policies brought us out of a nosedive.

Only time will cure this denial that you and so many others seem to have.

reply to post by xedocodex


Sure, I am just pro doom and gloom. Why am I thinking that if there was a Republican president individuals like yourself would be running around screaming the sky is falling.

Obama supporters will just keep on denying until the economy collapses.....

Originally posted by MidnightTide
reply to post by xedocodex

 

Sure, I am just pro doom and gloom. Why am I thinking that if there was a Republican president individuals like yourself would be running around screaming the sky is falling.

Obama supporters will just keep on denying until the economy collapses.....

edit on 6-4-2013 by MidnightTide because: (no reason given)

And you are accusing me of rhetoric???

You have failed to prove ANYTHING you are claiming. Prove that everyone, or at least the majority, of people that fell out of the workforce did so because they stopped looking for jobs.

The economy is improving, I have data to back that statement up. Stock market, housing market, unemployment numbers, etc.

So, where is your evidence that shows that the economy is collapsing???

reply to post by xedocodex


Housing Market:

the recovery in the housing market has been helped in a great part by heavy buying by both retail real estate investors and major institutions. According to the National Association of Realtors, cash buyers and large investors account for about 32% of home purchases across the country. (Source: Timiraos, N., “Investors Pile Into Housing, This Time as Landlords,” Wall Street Journal March 25, 2013.)

he housing market, especially in warm climate regions such as Florida and Arizona, has also been triggered by the inflow of foreign capital into the country. For the 12 months ended March 2012, foreign buyers purchased about $82.5 billion in U.S. property (4.8% of total U.S. sales), up from around $66.4 billion for the 12 months ended March 2011. (Source: “2012 Profile of International Home Buying Activity,” National Association of Realtors web site, last accessed March 26, 2013.)

So if it wasn't for the big money buying up homes from small families getting kicked out from their homes wonder how the housing market would be doing.


Stock Marke and the Economyt:

Who is convinced that the stock market represents some sort of leading indicator of wealth and prosperity. Nothing could be further from the truth. How many individuals are on food stamps these days? Do I have to get into how manipulated the stock market is? Do I need to explain the Plunge Protection Team (Executive Order 12631) Should I get into the Gramm–Leach–Bliley Act of 1999?

It is readily apparent that the stock market is phony. It is apparent that most Americans are just getting by, many depend on the government to make ends meat. Is that an indication of an improving economy? Further more the FEDs low interest rates are only promoting reckless spending....spending that is not sustainable. Once the FED is forced to raise interest rates you are going to see the economy sink fast then the Titanic.

Its worth repeating, Print 1 BILLION US DOLLARS = 1 job created!!!!!!!

What?

I'm sorry.. would you mind explaining this oddness? You are seriously suggesting that our government spends 1 billion dollars to get one person a job? And you mean it?

I guess they have to tell a little truth once in a while. Situations in other parts of the world are not much different in terms of manipulated figures.

In Singapore, there are people I know who are either jobless or underemployed. And inflation here is ridiculously high. Mainstream media can spin anything they like but the middle to low income earners are suffering.

Originally posted by camaro68ss

Originally posted by jimmyx

Originally posted by butcherguy
reply to post by xedocodex

 

Give it up people...History will show that Obama pulled this country out of a nose dive...that is just historic fact.

Yeppers, we're doing really well!

Thanks to your Emperor Obama.

right....because Obama can just wave his hand and make everything better...why don't you insist that the lazy-assed republican congressmen work on a jobs bill, as much as they work trying to lower personal income taxes for the top 1%

A jobs bill would require more debt, more spending. Job bills are quick fixes. and will not fix the underlining problems we have.

Then instead of a new 'jobs bill', maybe we should not allow the lawful exporting of our jobs.... courtesy of Congress.... mostly due to Repubs.

I shared this already in a different thread... it should be common knowledge at this point... But for some reason... it escaped everybody who has read or posted in this thread.... I looked, and did not find a mention of this bill in the previous pages.... if it's there, please let me know. I would love to be wrong about this.

This is the site to deny ignorance, is it?? WTF!! Ridiculous at this point.

Congress approves of the law to continue to pay companies to leave the country.... using our tax dollars... article link

And for the record.... this doesn't mean that I am enthralled with the Dems either.

reply to post by xedocodex


And the counter is true then; one cannot say it is "good news" because it fits their belief. 500,000 people dropping out of the work-force is above average for the factors that you have presented. Zerohedges chart on labor-force participation is pretty telling; hint: a 3% drop is not a good thing in terms of how the economy is; coupled with record number of people joining the ranks of "disabled" it spells disaster.

90 Million of the able-bodied (well, minus those who have now claimed disability on some pretty tenuous grounds) population are not working. That is unsustainable if we continue the trend. Either the taxes need to continue to skyrocket on those still working (expanded into the new definition of 'rich') or drastic cuts/policy changes need to be made.