Originally posted by kwakakev
reply to post by Hopechest
I would reply that they are causing the sanctions by their actions and therefore we should not back down but squeeze tighter.
That is the position that is being portrayed in the media, so you do have some very wealthy and powerful people taking a similar mindset. So
considering the effects and ongoing troubles Iraq and Afghanistan do you really think that this is the best solution?
Considering the western stand down in Syria because of Russia, how are they going to factor in with any change of leadership in North Korea? And what
about the more regional influential China? By squeezing harder it does increase the risk that NK will use their weapons, is this what you want? What
steps are being taken to mitigate the risk of WWII picking up where things left off?
Have you thought about the long term consequences, new wounds and ongoing troubles that will still be there once the bullets stop flying? If you
cannot sort out these problems now what makes you think you will be able to sort them out after a heap of infrastructure is destroyed and another big
pile of bodies remain?
Great post by the way.
First of all, Russia is not really a player in the North Korea debate so you can remove them from the discussion. They are too far removed from
influence to be anything but a voice in any UN action, of which they've already indicated they are either willing to side with the UN majority or
China on the other hand is the wildcard. We simply do not know, although we have a slight indication, which way China is leading. It appears, from
recent comments, that they do not like the rhetoric coming out of NK but nothing definitive from them yet. All we can do is guess at their
We do know they will not allow a western power, or a western supported government to take control in NK so that right there limits our choices. We
cannot know if our government is talking with China, though presumably they are, or what sort of arrangements might be in the process of being worked
out. Remember that China did not stand in the way of increasing sanctions against NK so that would indicate they are indeed playing ball with the
As for NK setting off a nuke?
Extremely unlikely. Anyone who thinks Kim is actually fully in power does not know how succession works when a leader, especially a dictator dies. Kim
has handlers, presumably the military command, and does not have full control of the country, probably very little control actually. The sanctions
that have been in place for years have not even touched the leadership of NK and it wasn't until the recent batch, which hit their access to funds,
that the leadership has started feeling the pinch. They don't really care what happens to their people.
Anyways, the leadership, military and political, have remained relatively unscathed and undoubtably like their lifestyles and power and if they are
like all the other leaders throughout history, they will do what they have to in order to ensure their way of life doesn't change. This is why they
will not launch an attack. They know what the end result will be, especially if China is talking with the west, which apparently they are. They also
are in control of the country, not Kim, and are probably instructing him on what to say and what to do in order that they can get some sanctions
lifted and return to their way of life.
If America doesn't play ball, which it appears Obama isn't, than I imagine the rhetoric will die down fairly quickly and they may offer up something
else instead, such as inspector access to their country which they will quickly remove as usual and continue the same thing they've been doing for
decades. I would imagine this is what their strategy is at the moment.
The problem I see for them though is that it appears their protector China is getting rather tired of having a nuclear threat, which appears unstable,
sitting on their border. From a national security standpoint, it makes sense for China to want that threat removed. It would not surprise me if China
is working out a plan to take over NK with the US, Britain, France, and Russia's blessing.