North Korea Watch 2013-2019

reply to post by -Rugged Shark-

thanks i was beginning to think i was a lone here ion this thread now for some bad news , Un might be up to his old tricks english.yonhapnews.co.kr... fromthe link

N. Korea postpones Kaesong complex communications, travel sub-panel talks
2013/09/25 20:46

SEOUL, Sept. 25 (Yonhap) -- North Korea on Wednesday postponed scheduled talks to enhance communications links and ease access to and from the inter-Korean factory park in Kaesong.

The Ministry of Unification in Seoul said Pyongyang called for a delay of the sub-panel meeting without giving a reason or setting up an alternate date. The meeting was set to take place at the Kaesong Industrial Complex on Thursday.

this is not a good sign at all

Throwing the rattle out of the pram again I see. Well even the Chinese are fed up with North Korea and I think if this spoilt brat continues to upset everyone, he is gonna find that China will cut off the painful appendix.

reply to post by Wirral Bagpuss

i agree it is just a matter of time before China takes him, Un er DPRK over their knee and gives a good spanking, then there might be true peace there and not the thought of war.
and here is a sign of hope of peace from SK english.yonhapnews.co.kr... from the link

S. Korea to prioritize trust building in inter-Korean policy
2013/09/25 17:45

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SEOUL, Sept. 25 (Yonhap) -- South Korea on Wednesday unveiled a five-year plan for fostering peaceful inter-Korean relations in the hopes of leading to an eventual reunification, the government said.

The plan, which gives top priority to trust building, will define the Park Geun-hye administration's policies towards Pyongyang, and seek "a small form of unification" that can lay the foundation for the two Koreas to eventually become one in the future, the Ministry of Unification said.

"By building trust, the two Koreas can expand exchange and cooperation," the ministry said. "Forging so-called small unification in various bilateral programs in such areas as economics can lead to large political merging of the two sides."

The step-by-step approach and trust building has been a key goal under the Park administration, who took office in late February.

The plan also outlined the need to build up South Korea's security capabilities while at the same time expanding all manner of exchange with North Korea.

It said the government will strive to help the North achieve meaningful change.

Under the 2013-2017 plan that must be revised every five years by law, Seoul also outlined 10 main goals for easing tensions and cooperation.

Foremost among the goals, Seoul called for all sides to seek dialogue to resolve outstanding issues and to stick to agreements once they are signed.

In the past, the North has repeatedly disregarded pledges, fueling mistrust.

Seoul will, moreover, seek to realistically resolve humanitarian issues, such as helping to reunite families separated by the 1950-53 Korean War, and engage in mutually beneficial cooperative ventures and work together to progressively develop the inter-Korean factory park in Kaesong that reopened last week after being closed for more than five months.

now the ball is Un's court will he take the ball,and run with it, or let it fly by him?

North Korea collapse inevitable, new report says

The United States should prepare now for North Korea’s impending collapse, a report released Friday from the Rand Corporation says.

North Korea, like former communist countries in Eastern Europe, could dissolve quickly with little warning. Yet, unlike East Germany or Romania, a North Korean failure could be far more dangerous and disastrous.

“The current North Korean government, led by Kim Jong Un, has showed signs of instability for some time and most experts agree that a collapse is likely,” said Bruce Bennett, the study’s author and a senior defense analyst at the think-tank. “It is more a matter of ‘when’ than ‘if’ it will occur.”

The 342-page report warns of civil war, a humanitarian crisis or even war with China. That becomes an even more deadly concern because of the North’s chemical, biological and nuclear weapons.

GlobalPost

Unfortunately, I doubt a collapse of NK will happen anytime soon. That regime has been there for more than 60 years despite the many earlier predictions of the regime collapsing.

reply to post by -Rugged Shark-


I think the Rand Corporation has a problem. Some wishful thinking has entered their analysis. They are letting their belief in American exceptionalism interfere with objectivity. You want something to happen, and then you predict that it will happen (because you know that you are secretly funding and supplying arms to rebels). With Assad it was "not if but when". Well that is now in doubt. The US, because of the egos of people like Kerry, McCain, and Obama, tried to launch a war when their certainties became uncertain. Now they are saying the same thing about North Korea. The same thing they have been saying for 60 years. What kind of secret operations are the fools in Washington conducting in North Korea? Is the US going to commit another major miscalculation in Korea with a nuclear weapon state when their certainties become uncertain?

Wirral Bagpuss
Throwing the rattle out of the pram again I see. Well even the Chinese are fed up with North Korea and I think if this spoilt brat continues to upset everyone, he is gonna find that China will cut off the painful appendix.

China is not fed up with North Korea. North Korea is not a spoiled brat upsetting everyone. These are western talking points. It is not a rogue regime. Their leaders are not crazy. It is also a possibility that some of the things that North Korea does are part of a Chinese strategy.

reply to post by Adaluncatif


I don't think the inmates of the concentration camps in North Korea would agree with your assessment. There are whole generations being imprisoned against their will and the very few that have managed to escape the camps have come out with horror stories that would make your toes curl.

reply to post by -Rugged Shark-


Well I agree with you to a point. What I think is interesting is that western goods are being smuggled in ie the DVDs of films and so forth via the black market. It is opening people's eyes. Another interesting development is that with the advent of mobile phones, granted I know that so far the elite have access to them, that if one is near to the Chinese or even South Korean border than one can pick up their mobile phone networks and so information will filter through that way. Sooner or later the mobile phones will also wend their way to the black market and more and more people in North Korea will wake up to the Grand Deception that is the Kim Dynasty.

People said the USSR would never collapse. But it did. Not quite panned out the way I hoped though, with a quasi dictatorship Government in power and with Tsar Putin on the throne but still there is much more relative freedom now than was back in the USSR. What North Korea needs is their own Glasnot and Peristrokia. Exciting words back in the days with the end of the Cold War. We all owe Gorby a huge debt of gratitude for saving us from impending nuclear war.

Adaluncatif

Wirral Bagpuss
Throwing the rattle out of the pram again I see. Well even the Chinese are fed up with North Korea and I think if this spoilt brat continues to upset everyone, he is gonna find that China will cut off the painful appendix.

China is not fed up with North Korea. North Korea is not a spoiled brat upsetting everyone. These are western talking points. It is not a rogue regime. Their leaders are not crazy. It is also a possibility that some of the things that North Korea does are part of a Chinese strategy.

I'll never understand the members of ATS who have the most bizarre and unimaginable ideas just because they have their own critiques of the West or angers in life. I am the biggest critic of my country, you have to be just like you have to be a self critic in life to improve or fix problem. But i've never entered a delusional state of mind to rationalize the things I don't like.

North Korea is not a spoiled brat upsetting everyone: Sure the Japanese and South Koreans simply LOVE constant missile threats an insanely beefed up border, neighbors they can't trade with, a political system run by entitlement in which like ancient civilizations some Caligula can end up in charge and kill the crap out of everyone... The Chinese surely feel they can control one man and his Aunt and a couple of other nut jobs. The Russians love Asian refugees entering Siberia every day ethnically changing the landscape. They don't bother anyone...

It's not a rouge regime the leaders are not crazy: sure the leader is fine in the head, he thinks one person should basically own a country in the year 2013 at the age of 28, he's right up there with the thought process of oooooo no other nation left on planet Earth, while the entire world including the Usa moves to a global system he's hard core 1950's style communism, bans books, doesn't allow internet beyond the nations border, has death camps and the people praise him as a deity... Totally in line with most of the planet, not "rouge" at all...

If you had ever been to Asia you'd know, while the West is "reactionary" and the "East" prefers to treat him as a child and ignore where possible, the place, the man, the system is embarrassing as heck and people just don't like to talk about it, the political systems Chinese or western like Japan would really prefer to save face and the people really don't go on and on about their mistakes like we do about Vietnam or Afghanistan but everyone knows damn, damn well they bet on the wrong fricken horse in the Korean war.

penninja

Adaluncatif

Wirral Bagpuss
Throwing the rattle out of the pram again I see. Well even the Chinese are fed up with North Korea and I think if this spoilt brat continues to upset everyone, he is gonna find that China will cut off the painful appendix.

China is not fed up with North Korea. North Korea is not a spoiled brat upsetting everyone. These are western talking points. It is not a rogue regime. Their leaders are not crazy. It is also a possibility that some of the things that North Korea does are part of a Chinese strategy.

I'll never understand the members of ATS who have the most bizarre and unimaginable ideas just because they have their own critiques of the West or angers in life. I am the biggest critic of my country, you have to be just like you have to be a self critic in life to improve or fix problem. But i've never entered a delusional state of mind to rationalize the things I don't like.

North Korea is not a spoiled brat upsetting everyone: Sure the Japanese and South Koreans simply LOVE constant missile threats an insanely beefed up border, neighbors they can't trade with, a political system run by entitlement in which like ancient civilizations some Caligula can end up in charge and kill the crap out of everyone... The Chinese surely feel they can control one man and his Aunt and a couple of other nut jobs. The Russians love Asian refugees entering Siberia every day ethnically changing the landscape. They don't bother anyone...

It's not a rouge regime the leaders are not crazy: sure the leader is fine in the head, he thinks one person should basically own a country in the year 2013 at the age of 28, he's right up there with the thought process of oooooo no other nation left on planet Earth, while the entire world including the Usa moves to a global system he's hard core 1950's style communism, bans books, doesn't allow internet beyond the nations border, has death camps and the people praise him as a deity... Totally in line with most of the planet, not "rouge" at all...

If you had ever been to Asia you'd know, while the West is "reactionary" and the "East" prefers to treat him as a child and ignore where possible, the place, the man, the system is embarrassing as heck and people just don't like to talk about it, the political systems Chinese or western like Japan would really prefer to save face and the people really don't go on and on about their mistakes like we do about Vietnam or Afghanistan but everyone knows damn, damn well they bet on the wrong fricken horse in the Korean war.

Have you ever noticed that every enemy of the US is crazy or evil? This does not make sense logically. The United States wants to control the entire planet. This requires the destruction of governments that are not subservient to the United States. If you need to destroy a country you have to come up with a reason that does not involve pure greed. Therefore the enemy is evil. It uses chemical weapons even though there is no proof and such a use would benefit its enemies. If one person is in a prison camp in an enemy country that evil country is torturing millions in "DEATH CAMPS". Its just like the Holocaust. You cannot question the Holocaust because the facts are known even though nobody is ever allowed to study how many people actually died. Never mind the fact that the Zionists were pushing the 6 million number during the previous war, World War I, because 6 million fulfills Jewish prophecy for the creation of the state of Israel. It sickens me that so many people in this country and ATS cannot discern between known facts and propaganda. Most people live in denial. They cannot believe the truth that is staring them in the face and decide to believe propaganda. I am no longer going to be nice to idiots. You people are at fault. You who believe propaganda are going to get us all killed.

China called firm backer of North

China has not made a fundamental change in its policy toward North Korea, the U.S. Congressional Research Service says, adding that Beijing’s “overriding priority is to prevent the collapse of North Korea.”

A report by the research group earlier this month said recent statements from China’s leadership, coming even after Beijing had agreed to additional UN sanctions, indicated no change in its fundamental stance toward its impoverished neighbor.

Joongang Daily

reply to post by Adaluncatif


Not just wishful thinking, but also outdated data.
the economic growth chart that they used went only up to 2010, leaving out the economic growth they achieved in 2011 and 2012.

Despite the UN sanctions, which have undoubtedly a great impact on their economy, they had a 1.3% growth this year.

The other problem that I have with the Rand and the CRS reports is that they both are focusing on one thing: The collapse of North Korea.

There are, in my opinion, also other scenarios possible which aren't being mentioned.

1. No collapse, continuation of the Kim regime
2. No collapse, Kim regime is overthrown by a more moderate regime
3. A collapse, full reunification with South Korea
4. A collapse, creating a new DMZ but shifted further North (see Rand report)

here is the latest news from SK english.yonhapnews.co.kr... from the link

China hopes U.S., N. Korea to hold direct talks on nuclear standoff
2013/09/27 17:02

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BEIJING, Sept. 27 (Yonhap) -- China said Friday it hopes the United States and North Korea will hold bilateral talks to help resolve the North's nuclear standoff as Beijing has intensified its diplomatic efforts to resume the long-stalled dialogue on Pyongyang's atomic weapons program.

Hong Lei, a spokesman at China's foreign ministry, made the remarks a day after Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi and U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry held talks in New York, during which they discussed North Korea, Syria and Iran, among others.

Describing the Wang-Kerry meeting as "candid, practical and constructive," Hong said they agreed to "commit to the denuclearization, peace and stability on the Korean Peninsula."

"At the same time, China believes that legitimate concerns of the DPRK (North Korea) should be resolved, and hopes to see more direct contacts between the U.S. and the DPRK," Hong said.

The remarks by Hong are unlikely to gain traction from Washington because the Obama administration wants North Korea to change its course before the resumption of any nuclear talks with the North can take place. However, Obama's so-called "strategic patience" policy toward North Korea has produced little results so far.

and this english.yonhapnews.co.kr... just a few: from the link

China hopes U.S., N. Korea to hold direct talks on nuclear standoff 09-27 17:02
(LEAD) S. Korea to calmly deal with delay of family reunions: unification minister 09-27 15:53
Russian expert urges Koreas to move forward with trilateral railway project09-27 14:07
S. Korea to give US$6.3 mln to help N. Korean children09-27 11:58
S. Korea to calmly deal with delay of family reunions: unification minister 09-27 10:28
(LEAD) Gottemoeller: N. Korea should take 'real, practical' steps towards denuclearization09-27 05:57
In CTBTO session, North Korea issue to be addressed09-27 05:54
Hagel due in Korea next week for annual talks 09-27 04:49
Gottemoeller: N. Korea should take 'real, practical' steps towards denuclearization 09-27 04:33

that is a lot of reading

reply to post by -Rugged Shark-

what no China??? Taking the north and south over a 10 year time frame? this is how it would play out:
Un tries to take. as he is now, reunification plan of the south , the South being more stable keeps winning this new trade war.

Un threatens to use a nuke, thus China steps in Takes over the north , after 9 years of failed talks and trade by the south, US steps out of the South, thus China sees the chance and takes the south by default of "trade war" South does not have the funds to pay China, thus becomes by default a China owned province.

here is the new news of the day english.yonhapnews.co.kr... seems the DPRK ias not wanting to have talks , but talk about it from the link, in part

China hopes U.S., N. Korea to hold direct talks on nuclear standoff
2013/09/27 17:02

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BEIJING, Sept. 27 (Yonhap) -- China said Friday it hopes the United States and North Korea will hold bilateral talks to help resolve the North's nuclear standoff as Beijing has intensified its diplomatic efforts to resume the long-stalled dialogue on Pyongyang's atomic weapons program.

Hong Lei, a spokesman at China's foreign ministry, made the remarks a day after Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi and U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry held talks in New York, during which they discussed North Korea, Syria and Iran, among others.

Describing the Wang-Kerry meeting as "candid, practical and constructive," Hong said they agreed to "commit to the denuclearization, peace and stability on the Korean Peninsula."

"At the same time, China believes that legitimate concerns of the DPRK (North Korea) should be resolved, and hopes to see more direct contacts between the U.S. and the DPRK," Hong said.

The remarks by Hong are unlikely to gain traction from Washington because the Obama administration wants North Korea to change its course before the resumption of any nuclear talks with the North can take place. However, Obama's so-called "strategic patience" policy toward North Korea has produced little results so far.

well Un has the move now

reply to post by -Rugged Shark-


One possibility that I worry about is this: the Kim regime is overthrown by old hardliners, the generals who fought in the Korean War and developed nuclear weapons for the sole purpose of reuniting the country. Actual crazy people.

reply to post by bekod


Why would you think China wants North Korea?
But lets say that they do, what would the pro's and con's be?

Pro's:
- Gaining more land
- Gaining port access to the West and East seas
- Gaining large mineral depots

Con's:
- Farmland in North Korea is poor
- No industry worth taking
- Bad infrastructure
- Outdated military complex
- Problems with integration of North Koreans into the Chinese system
- International response with a possible backlash over Tibet

No, in my opinion China has more to loose than to gain by taking over North Korea. China's main interest is in using North Korea as a buffer zone, which they have been doing since the Korean war.

reply to post by Adaluncatif


I've been thinking about that too. But most of the hardliners have been purged when Kim Jung Un came to power.
Those that remained have been demoted.
The only one that might be able to pull something off is General Kim Yong Chol. He's well respected but it's also known that his superiors have a hard time handling him. But I haven't seen him appear in public for a while.

Wirral Bagpuss
I don't think the inmates of the concentration camps in North Korea would agree with your assessment. There are whole generations being imprisoned against their will and the very few that have managed to escape the camps have come out with horror stories that would make your toes curl.

Yes but the chances of any of us doing anything about that is pretty remote but US citizens and the citizens of other nations have a real chance of doing something about the torture and abuse that takes place in the fast forming American 'gulags', prison camps and torture bases... They are the largest ( by number of prisoners) in the world so while we certainly can't easily change what happens in North Korea we may perhaps shame the US population into escalating their resistance to their own governments abuses.

Either way while the US refuses to normalize ( sign a permanent peace treaty) with North Korea their government can legitimately, to their own people at least, claim to be in a state equivalent to war with all the required expedients which in most countries results in progressives getting locked up and or tortured.

If you think trough this you will once again see that the US national security state again have the power ( or had it for the last six decades) to chance things for the better in the Korean peninsula but have for various reasons decided that it served their foreign/economic interest best to keep that area destabilized and the Korea's ready to create a huge mess in China's back yard.

Either way the US ( and other European&developed countries) have the means to save tens of millions of lives per year that are being lost due to starvation and preventable diseases so crying over North Korean political prisoners and such might be topical here but will not likely change before we change the modus operandi of these major powers.

Stellar

N. Korea again condemns S. Korea's shooting on defection-seeker

SEOUL, Sept. 28 (Yonhap) -- North Korea again condemned South Korea Saturday for shooting to death a defection-seeker earlier this month, asking the international community to pass its own judgement on the case.

On Sept. 16, a 47-year-old South Korean man was shot dead by South Korean soldiers while trying to swim across a border river in an attempt to defect to North Korea. The man had disobeyed an order to return, South Korean officials said.

Yonhap