Quite an interesting thread. Well done to the 'op' for his research and the variability of its accuracy. Of course, the thread is filled with various
posts thinking it is going to be another easy rout for American military, through to others being more cautious and sentinel on how a war with North
Korea might pan out. Somewhere amongst all the scenarios posted here, the real situation will become evident.
North Korean military is pretty much a blunt tool, that is until they acquired nukes. The acquisition of basic nuclear devices changed the ball game,
and the war-like rhetoric coming out of the mouth of NK's propaganda machine. For our understanding it's all about context, and we can't have any
frame of reference for context unless we can learn something of the North Korean mind.
Just to side-track slightly, I'd like to mention something about America's use of technology, because for all its superiority, it is also it's
greatest weakness. The key to combatting America's use of technology is to disrupt its communications capability, and that means disrupting the
electronics. America's military travels far and wide and requires a massive back up support system of supply, which is a logistical nightmare. By
isolating forward forces from their back up supply, even temporarily, allows for a more focussed attack on the forward forces themselves.
Usually, American military tends to park itself off coasts and borders, and then begins to punch at the enemy well out of reach of its ability to hit
back, meaning that American military using the formidable fire power of its navy and airforce, strike at the enemy pretty much with impunity. That is
all and good for America facing a foe lacking nuclear weaponry. However, confronting an enemy that is nuclear-armed is an entirely different
proposition, as the risk of losing all of your forward forces becomes a very real possibility. With North Korea you are facing a blunt military tool
that is nuclear-armed. With this knowledge forefront in one's mind, having a complete manifesto of your enemy's conventional military capability is
not the greatest concern. Of course it is necessary, but what is of greater concern about one's enemy is their will and determination to use their
nuclear weapons, hence the necessity of being able to gauge the mind you are up against.
Can we gauge the North Korean mind with any accuracy, especially that of their leader and his advisors? The answer to that has to be both 'yes' and
'no'. We can certainly gain a general view, but not one with any real detail that helps us make accurate assessments that we can act on. North Korea
is an isolated nation, and has been isolated for decades, with it's only interface with the rest of the world coming through Chinese channels. It
still promotes a communistic view, but with addition of total obediency to their leader around whom they have given an aura of almost god-like status.
There are parallels to be drawn here with the way the Japanese viewed Hirohito during WW2, something I have remarked about in other earlier posts
elsewhere on ATS. We can expect the North Korean military to fight with a fanaticism bordering on the kamikaze to inflict (in order) defeat, death,
destruction, and high cost upon their perceived enemy. They may very well throw themselves willingly upon your bayonets just to get within reach of
If North Korea has the will and determination to use the nukes it has, when would be the best time for them to do so? I would imagine they have
studied the ways in which America uses its forces? I should also think they would know how capable a war machine it is, what technology it uses to
both blind and make mute their enemy? If Kim Jung-Un is a man able to use clear and objective logic he will see that pre-emptive nuclear strikes upon
the assembled military hardware ranged against him would be the way to go. Let them assemble all their power off your coasts and then attack it
without warning, hit the fleets with nukes, cut off the forward forces in South Korea, and use conventional and chemical and biological weaponry
The idea being not to win, but to cause too high a cost in the loss of human life and hardware, even though you know such action would lead to your
utter annihilation. It would seem to me that paying too high a cost is the ultimate bluff that Kim Jung-Un is counting on? That such a threat is
enough to use as a bargaining chip. On that score, he is entirely wrong.
edit on 4/4/13 by elysiumfire because: (no reason given)