This is not as easy as a scenario as it is being presented. Kim's greatest weapon is his knowledge that geopolitical conditions prevent the US from
conducting total war. Specifically, a) the US populace will reject a costly protracted land war which may cost the lives of hundreds of thousands of
soldiers b) the US will not utilize it's nuclear arsenal because of China and Russia and c) Kim believes China will intervene on his behalf if the US
attempts to occupy the North.
Kim is crazy enough to use nuclear weapons. He controls a brainwashed populace who will fight to the last man. Most dangerously, he actually
believes that the destruction of South Korea and the United States is a noble objective. Kim's grand strategy is stay alive long enough so that he
can cause enough enough death and carnage to convince the US that his demise isn't worth untold thousands of American lives. The questions to ask are
1) At what point do we deem war not worth it? 1,000 dead 100,000 dead, 1 million dead? 2) How long could the regime survive against the obviously
superior US led forces. A week? A month? A Year?
War + One Hour- Seoul would come under tremendous artillery bombardment, causalities could well be in the tens of thousands in the opening salvos of
War + 3 Hours- Though North Korea's military is woefully outdated, it is more than equipped to drop tens of thousands of special forces troops into
the south. 40,000 brainwashed nut jobs trained to conduct terrorist like activities all throughout the south will bored old prop planes, shoddy subs,
civilian cars, and traverse desolate mountain crossings. Many of these SF troops will be successful in infiltrating and serve as snipers, plant
IED's, and conduct suicide bombings, raids, and assassinations. Al Queda and the Taliban cause significant causalities and they are, for the most
part, goat herders. Identifying friend of foe would be impossible and American forces will be targeted when they are defenseless. For the duration
of the conflict, nowhere would be safe.
W + 12 Hours- A half million man army or more would be within marching distance of Seoul. Allied forces would be vastly outnumbered. Allied fighter
aircraft would have by this point achieved total air superiority. The first sorties of long range tactical bombers would have begun dumping their
payloads on the advancing NK forces. Not enough planes are within range to totally route the zealous advancing army which only needs to cover a 35
mile area. American Special Forces Units will tasked with impossible missions to destroy the Norths Nuclear/Chemical/Biological arsenal, these men
know that most of them will not come back from these high danger missions.
W+ 24 Hours- The enemy, in force, would be at the gates of Seoul. A decision will be made to either retreat or engage in street to street fighting in
the city. The loss of Seoul would lead to mass civilian casualties and would give the NK the first victory of the war. Engaging in mass urban combat
would render many US tactical assets largely ineffective. Bloody street to street fighting would begin.
W + 48 Hours- Holding Seoul would prove to be too costly. Casualties at this point will be approaching at least 100,000 (assuming only conventional
weapons have been used by the North at this point). American and SK forces will retreat to a more open position to allow US aircraft, naval assets
and armor to better engage the inferior NK forces. This retreat will be plagued by mines, IED's, and snipers from the special forces soldiers dropped
during the opening hours of the war. It is conceivable that American forces suffer a 5-10% (perhaps even a much higher) causality rate during the
first 48 hours.
W + 72 H- While under continued harassment by guerrilla fighters, the US and SK will begin to organize a counter offensive to recapture Seoul. By
this point in time, American aircraft would have taken a significant toll on artillery positions on the DMZ. The NK advance will have been fully
halted. Having lost contact with command and running low on rations, NK units will disperse into small guerrilla groups and fight to the death as
W+ 5 days- Marine Expeditionary, the 101st and/or 82nd Airborne and an in theater army division will join up with existing friendly forces to launch
a counter offensive and/or to open up a second front.
W+ 10 days- All lost territory will have been recaptured by this point. The fight to retake Seoul or invade into the north will be incredibly
bloody. Causalities would be well over a million people. (including the North)
Pyongyang will be taken within two weeks - twenty days but Kim will long be gone and the city will be empty. Small guerrilla units would operate
similar to how the Taliban operates. Loosing one thousand american troops a month would become commonplace. China would not allow the US to
establish bases in the north and would begin placing its own troops into the country to secure a northern boarder. If Kim is still alive and China
does not choose to support him, I have no doubt that a desperate regime will use its entire remaining Nuclear, Chemical and Biological arsenal. If
China chooses to back Kim we return to the status quo, just like what happened 60 years ago. America, tired of war on a scale which has not been
scene since the last world war would capitulate and not risk starting WW3 with China. So who really wins? Surely not the US or SK. ]
on 1-4-2013 by IndianaJoe because: (no reason given)