"North Korea is not going to war," senior U.S. official says

This is conformation of what many here have been saying - that the loud noise is nothing more than posturing and rhetoric...

A senior Obama administration official told CBS News Friday that North Korea's belligerent words and war-like preparations are more bluff than bite.

"North Korea is in a mindset of war, but North Korea is not going to war," said the official, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to offer insight into the latest administration thinking on the volatile situation on the Korean Peninsula.

The official said North Korea is doing two things that signal it is not spoiling for war: maintaining continuous and unfettered access to the Kaesong Industrial Complex six miles north of the Demilitarized Zone and by continuing to promote tourists visits to North Korea, even amid its banging of war drums.

"There is pot-banging and chest-thumping, but they have literature attracting tourists that explicitly says pay no attention to all that (public) talk about nuclear war or another kind of war," the official said.

While analyzing what appeared to war maps, Kim looked at a target zone that appeared to include Asia-Pacific patrols of the 100-vessel-strong U.S. 7th Fleet.

The administration official said the only way the 7th Fleet would be vulnerable would be "if Kim Jung Un has a 'Call of Duty' video game and it includes a targeting of the 7th Fleet."

Source

I realize that the doom patrol sometimes has a difficult time letting go of the fun of fear... but NoKo is not going to do anything IMO. I personally agree that the rhetoric spewing out of Pyongyang is probably meant for internal consumption - possibly to build up the image of Dear Leader Kim Jung Un... or maybe to squelch internal tensions brewing within the nation. North Korea is one of the most repressed economies in the world and her citizens are deeply suffering, thanks to a policy called "sungun" - or "military first".

The following from Heritage.org spells it out pretty clearly.

North Korea is largely isolated and disengaged from the world’s economy. Data collection is extremely challenging, and reported statistics on the economy remain largely speculative, requiring careful evaluation. North Korea’s economic freedom score is 1.5, making its economy the least free in the 2013 Index.

North Korea remains an unreformed and essentially closed dictatorial state. Despite experimenting with a few market reforms over the past decade, the world’s most repressed economy adheres firmly to a system of state command and control that upholds the regime’s long-standing songun (“military first”) policy. The Workers’ Party tightly controls every aspect of economic activity. The impoverished population is heavily dependent on government subsidies in housing and food rations, and the state-run rationing system has deteriorated significantly in recent years.

North Korea may be attempting to open its economy slightly by encouraging limited foreign direct investment. However, the dominant military establishment and ongoing leadership transition make any substantial near-term economic policy changes unlikely. Normal foreign trade is minimal, with China and South Korea being the most important trading partners.

Source

You'll notice the above states that South Korea is one of the two major trade partners with North Korea. One of the two minimal lifelines into their exceptionally poor coffers. They may be militant but I doubt they'd bite the hand that feeds.

Also there is this to consider...

Kaesŏng Industrial Park is being operated in the region, as a collaborative economic development with South Korea. It is located ten kilometres (six miles) north of the Korean Demilitarized Zone with direct road and rail access to South Korea and an hour's drive from Seoul. Construction started in June 2003, and in August 2003 North and South Korea ratified four tax and accountancy agreements to support investment. Pilot phase construction was completed in June 2004, and the industrial park opened in December 2004.

In 2012, the Ministry of Unification was informed that 8 of the current 123 companies had received a tax collection notice. The notices were made by a unilateral decision by North Korea. The eight companies were informed to pay ₩170,208,077 ($160,000 US) in taxes; two of the companies have already paid $20,000 in taxes to the North Koreans.

Unilateral decisions by the Central Special Direct General Bureau (CSDGB) to amend bylaws is a violation of Kaesong Industrial District Law, which requires that any revision of the laws be negotiated between the North and the South.

For the first time, in 2011, the companies in the KIR recorded an average operating profit of ₩56 million ($56,241 US), finally operating in the black after years in deficit.

Source

That's right - a western style operation happening in North Korea and being manned by South Koreans. This park has been operating normally throughout this entire episode and will continue to do so.

In my earnest opinion this is just another case of North Korea throwing a tantrum with some agenda in mind... some goal that has nothing at all to do with the tantrum or threats. Maybe they just want some of the UN sanctions lifted so they can have a bit more bread to first take the lions share of and then to offer what's left to their starving citizens. Who knows?

What I do know is that the dozens of WW3 is HERE! threads are almost surely going to fall to the bottom of the ATS archives and be quickly forgotten and disowned. At least until the next time that North Korea feels like acting out in the fashion of a sugar high toddler.

~Heff

Just as I thought, I don't think fat boy is dumb enough to launch a military strike against anyone in the region because that would almost be suicidal for him and for his beloved North Korea. although military action by allied forces against the North Korean government would probably be a blessing in disguised to the millions of starving North Koreans that are being kept prisoners in labor camps.

exactly what I've been saying
as long as that factory continues to be business as usual, everything is smoke and mirrors.
....but.......

You have to factor in "human error" This is a situation where you don't want Gomer Pyle dropping his gun and going off in the direction of the DMZ.

Still Ignorant of the to make such threats, sad actually. But hope this data is accurate and if so

NAMASTE*******

Not for nothing but one day this will easily be the boy who cried wolf....and since he cried wolf so many times before, when an actual wolf appears...we will all just sigh and say not this again. While the wolf devours the boy....Anyone else think that maybe this is routine for a reason?

reply to post by Hefficide




Thanks for posting this, however...

"North Korea is not going to war," senior U.S. official says, is it means that the other side (going to war) actually ?

Problem is (through history of political lies) whenever they say (not going to …) they are actually en route…

It's threads like this that makes me keep coming back to ATS, a thread that uses logic to diagnose the news. What was included about the park was very interesting, i had no idea that the two korea's co-operated like that!

Kudos! star and flagged.

Considering that my general rule is that anything the Obama administration proclaims is 180 degrees in relation to reality.

That means that war will probably happen within weeks, if not days.

Seeing as this is now in the mainstream and NK are likely to see it, it could be just another little push.

He needs to back down and soon, im wondering whats driving him on this far.

Those sound like hard words coming from China , calling NK's bluff .

Part of me wonders if China is edging them on , or showing them publicly that China is not with them on this ?

Taking into consideration how sensitive the NK leadership is and how important keeping face is to them these words from China seem very interesting

reply to post by Hefficide


And what else would you expect to hear from an "anonymous" source inside the Obama administration? They aren't going to publicly announce that there is a possibility that North Korea may attack the US even if they had credible intel stating otherwise. Let's face it we won't know the truth until something does or doesn't happen.

I understand that North Korea had done nothing but sabre rattle in the past, but the US government doesn't exactly have a good track record of being honest with the public either.

reply to post by SpaDe_


Realistically speaking, North Korea even possessing an ability to effectively attack the US is a bone of contention. They may or may not be able to land some missiles in Hawaii. But as for the mainland US? It seems that only the most cynical minds tend to think that is possible. ATS member Zaphod is brilliant in his knowledge of the specifics of their weapons - so I kind of hope he finds his way into this thread to explain it all and potentially alleviate some tensions.

As for the rhetoric and what it might accomplish? I think Orwell pretty much nailed that one on the nose.

see everyone thinks this is just hot wind but as a news reporter said he has pushed it to the highest level with his people,after this he has no where to go but war if he wants to look the oh so powerful to his own people

the levels reached the point of no return,i wait on intrest what happens next.

That sucks I needed a nuclear war it would have caused mutations,in
human DNA that turns into a virus, then when the survivors turn to cannibalism
To survive bam zombie apocalypse! How fun would that have been!


Plus I just payed this guy 300 bucks for a atomic bomb proof tent

Originally posted by Hefficide
They may or may not be able to land some missiles in Hawaii. But as for the mainland US?

Why do they even need a missile delivery system? I still do not get why people are worrying about missiles reaching here or not. Just put it in a cargo container and detonate it when it arrives at a port in NY, or California. A missile is not even needed to get it to the required location.

reply to post by Hefficide


To attack us they would not need to hit the mainland. The US has bases all over the world. The other thing, who is to say that they are not receiving assistance or collaborating with one or more of our enemies? The US has no shortage of enemies, so I could see this being a possibility.

If you were backed into a corner and shut out from the world for decades with nothing to do but plan an attack on your enemies you could come up with a pretty elaborate plan. Whether they will in fact do anything is yet to be seen.

reply to post by Mr Tranny


That is a remote possibility but a nuclear weapon exploded at ground level wouldn't have nearly the effect of one exploded at the correct altitude. in retaliation we would nuke NoKo off of the map before anyone knew what was happening - that is if China didn't do it themselves on our behalf.

Pyongyang is loud and belligerent to be sure. But suicidal?

reply to post by Hefficide


How will we know that they even did it? If they didn’t come out and claim responsibility right after it happened, we may never find out. It could be Iran that did it, or another country that was wanting to pin it on NK. With no evidence left, we would be guessing. It would be a highly likely guess, but a guess none the less.

And on the ground level thing.

If they could get the container on the top of the stack, then they could have a small set of rockets to shoot it out the top, into the air the required distance before detonation to achieve maximum ground effect.

You could even have it guided to aim for the center of the city after it clears the container.

The size of the package would be small enough to stand vertical in the container. You would need no time to erect it into launching position.

Kid Jong just turned 30 - he looks like he is 12. I think turning 30 got to his head and he is feeling insecure, so he is just babbling nonsense, thinking it makes him look tough.

Should we really fear North Korea? Something tells me we would wipe them off the map.

That is a remote possibility but a nuclear weapon exploded at ground level wouldn't have nearly the effect of one exploded at the correct altitude. in retaliation we would nuke NoKo off of the map before anyone knew what was happening - that is if China didn't do it themselves on our behalf.





Pyongyang is loud and belligerent to be sure. But suicidal? u would nuke noko off the map and think maybe china would do it on your behalf?i think china is more likely to side with nk if all this crap kicked off and russia too,they would join forces to take america out i think to them it sounds like a better deal which makes this situation scarier than americans think