I May Have Detected Volcanic Tremor at LA PALMA- not El Hierro- Yes- at Mr. Mega Tsunami!

This all started when I noticed a strange spectrograph signature at the La Palma station, while I was looking at spectrograms from the recent seismicity at El Hierro. THat will end up being the LAST pic I post in this thread- cause I want to take you chronologically through the events that I have discovered. Note: This thread may take a while to load with all the pics.

By now I think most of us know the difference between those two- for the major threat to many countries from a mega tsunami comes from La Palma, not El Hierro- if the west side of the volcano collapses- which has already started. This has been well documented, and please do some searches if you need to about it.

But my main concern right now is that I believe I may have detected several episodes of lower amplitude volcanic tremor at La Palma, which I have painstakingly gone back and traced, day by day, to have started- I believe- on October 28th, 2012. I will carefully differentiate each event with a corresponding spectrograph from the station at El Hierro, to show that these events are not originating from the substantial seismicity there. I believe they are local to La Palma, but I am happy to entertain your thoughts on why I may be wrong on that.

I went all the way back to June 1, 2012, day by day, so if anything happened before that, I don't know. Believe me, that was enough work in itself to go that far back. But the current tremor events at La Palma began with the following event on October 28, 2012:
1.


And here is the waveform view, with an arrow I have placed to show where this event began:
2.


And to show that this did not come from El Hierro:
3.


So the following pics will all be laid out like this- 1) Spectrograph of the event at La Palma, 2) Waveform view with arrow, marking start time and 3) the corresponding spectrograph from the station at El Hierro, to show that the event did not originate from there. So get used to the 1,2,3.

October 30, 2012:
1.


2.


3.


October 31, 2012:
1.


2.


3.


November 1, 2012:
1.


2.


3.


Now here is where I got concerned enough to want to start this thread, because this next tremor sequence ramps up the power considerably. This is the March 3, 2013 sequence:

1.


2.

Look at that!

3.

And in this case, it was possibly strong enough to propagate some 60 km all the way to El Hierro, if that's what we are seeing there!

And here is the event that got me started looking at this- it is a strange low frequency event on March 22, 2013, just a few days ago:



That again, does not appear to come from El Hierro!

So in closing, yeah, I'd say we better damn well keep an eye on that beast in case this escalates further, because it seems the tremor episodes have been ramping up in power. Now even if an eruption does happen at La Palma, it doesn't mean necessarily that the side of the volcano is coming down, causing the massive tsunami to hit the east coast of the USA. But if it does erupt, I have no doubt it is going to make one hell of a lot of people nervous as crap, including me.

It is confusing watching La Palma also register the stronger seismicity from El Hierro. But hopefully I think I have shown through pulling the corresponding El Hierro charts per each date, that these particular events are coming from somewhere at La Palma, not El Hierro- or darn close to La Palma. Hopefully at least some professionals will at least take heed, and perhaps research this further. Cause I am done for now- but you better believe I have my eyes glued to the charts at the IGN.

www.01.ign.es...#

*Gulp*

EDIT: For recent seismicity at El Hierro, also see this good thread started by Olivine:
www.abovetopsecret.com...

I gotta take your word on this, True, as I am ignorant when it comes to this stuff. Please keep us updated to any new developments. Thanks.

Very nice find OP. I am pretty ignorant about these things so i will do a bit of research and keep checking back on your findings. Meanwhile this famous little diddy from Oh brother where art thou comes to mind.

Pete: Wait a minute. Who elected you leader of this outfit?

Ulysses Everett McGill: Well Pete, I figured it should be the one with the capacity for abstract thought. But if that ain't the consensus view, then hell, let's put it to a vote.

Pete: Suits me. I'm voting for yours truly.

Ulysses Everett McGill: Well I'm voting for yours truly too.

[Everett and Pete look at Delmar for the deciding vote]

Delmar O'Donnell: Okay... I'm with you fellas.

Wow...I lurk on the EQ thread (learning SO MUCH from all the regular posters there) and when I saw this thread title, I scrolled...THEN noticed TA posted it. Rut Roh... Better stop and read. Well done and thanks for the background work. Will keep stopping by "here."

Well, if nothing else, I learned a few things from reading the OP.

Hopefully that is all that comes from this. I would hate to see peoples worst fears come to a reality.

Thanks for the info TA,

I'm wondering if you've e-mailed any seismologists your findings. If you did, what did they say?

Originally posted by collietta
I'm wondering if you've e-mailed any seismologists your findings. If you did, what did they say?

Lol, why would I bother? Seems like any more when I try to talk to any of them in email, all I get is arrogance, and "You don't know jack, cause you're not a pro."

So I am done with seismologists. Screw em.

I am for the people. Period. No agendas, no other reason, and damn sure not beholden to some fricken government. Don't you think seismologists know this? Of course they do. They see it. They're not stupid. But maybe they just don't want to say anything, cause it might skeer someone. They are banking on that no one will notice, with all the seismicity going on at El Hierro. Easy excuse to write it off to that. "Oh, it's just from El Hierro."

And that's why I took the time to SHOW that these events are not from El Hierro. I can't be positive they are absolutely coming from La Palma- could be they are originating offshore somewhere from there. If the damn seismologists weren't so snooty, and let us have some tools to locate these events, perhaps I could give you guys more info. But noooooo. So good, let the damn thing blow up in their faces for all I care.

reply to post by TrueAmerican


star and flag. i guess the tunnel will get a looking at now to check on any changes. thanks for the thread.
fakedirt.

I didn't mean to offend you, I was just curious as to what their response would be.

You've been fairly accurate in your earthquake observations so far. With the amount of seismographic activity in the world, they might have overlooked this one and I thought you have given them a heads up.

reply to post by TrueAmerican


I'm not surprised that you've got that kind of response in the past. You're possibly pointing out something they've missed and they really won't be happy about that. Regardless, this is a very important thread, and even if it never happens to produce a worst case anything....which would be hell...everyone needs to do homework on this...awareness is critical.

I've been watching this whole area, with very little technical expertise I will admit, but very sharp instincts, for many years. It wouldn't be any surprise to me at all if La Palma does exactly as predicted.

Meanwhile, I'm tickled that Glinda and I have perfectly co-ordinated signatures.

Just being purely lazy......I know I could Google this....but I'll assume you may have the answer TA......

What's the worst case scenario, ie tsunami height, speed, size of area (coast and inland) affected?

Thanks.

reply to post by TrueAmerican


Come on.....Give us some doom porn anyways....

WHENS IT GONNA BLOW??

Well all the news you post about volcanoes is good to read but is always sucky news, because at any moment one of the major volcanoes could blow and kill us all......Thanks.....I guess

Originally posted by woogleuk
Just being purely lazy......I know I could Google this....but I'll assume you may have the answer TA......

What's the worst case scenario, ie tsunami height, speed, size of area (coast and inland) affected?

Thanks.

It totally depends 100% on how much of the rock face collapses, all at once. And there is considerable debate and disagreement on exactly what would happen. Some say 800 feet walls of water if the entire cliff goes, others say we might only get a 30 foot wave, if any wave at all.

Totally depends on the volume of rock that hits the water- and/or the volume of rock that slides, that's already BELOW the water. Remember, the most substantial part of La Palma actually is below the water. So if a side of that cliff goes, even more of it could collapse underneath the water, virtually unseen- until the wave from it emerges, that is.

reply to post by TrueAmerican


Ive said this to you before, it always worries me when you post threads like this. I take your words very seriously. I'll be keeping an eye on this, i hope your wrong.

Did some Googling......Canary Islands??

That is some distance for the waves to travel, it must be a lot of rock that falls to cause that. Do you know which countries could be affected?

Or am I wrong about it being the Canary Islands?

a documentary several years ago drew my attention to la palma. dr simon day was the geologist who studied the area and its composition.

www.tenerifemagazine.com...

the west flank slipped 13ft in the late forties eruption.

f.

reply to post by woogleuk


Here's a wee link....dunno how accurate it might be, but seems quite tame compared to some I've read in the past. A worse case collapse would seriously affect the UK too, when the wave is compressed by the narrowing of the English Channel. Scary stuff. The maps are clickable for little animations.

La Palma simulations

They do look like volcanic tremors. They appear to be longer duration than a tiny quake. I'm no expert at this but have seen a few seismic graphs of volcanic tremors. Time will tell, it could just be priming up for a future event.

Originally posted by thedoctorswife
reply to post by TrueAmerican

 

Ive said this to you before, it always worries me when you post threads like this. I take your words very seriously. I'll be keeping an eye on this, i hope your wrong.

Of COURSE I'm wrong. I don't know jack cause I'm not a pro. Watch, soon someone will be along with all the reasons I'm wrong.

*taps foot impatiently*

reply to post by TrueAmerican


S&F for not being a pro , but a very very good and dedicated amateur!
I take you threads very seriously also .