2°C global average temperature rise will increase the number of extreme storms tenfold

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posted on Mar, 24 2013 @ 02:17 PM
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If global average temperatures rise by just 2°C, the number of extreme storms like Hurricane Katrina will increase tenfold.

www.nbi.ku.dk...
phys.org...
www.siasat.com...

""We find that 0.4 degrees Celcius warming of the climate corresponds to a doubling of the frequency of extreme storm surges like the one following Hurricane Katrina"


Whether the reason for the higher temperature is carbon dioxide or something else, it seems to be pretty dangerous.
edit on 24-3-2013 by Cabin because: (no reason given)




posted on Mar, 24 2013 @ 02:28 PM
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reply to post by Cabin
 


We're about 1.8F warmer now and 2012 greenhouse gas emissions were so high that it's about destroyed any hope scientists had of holding to 2 degrees warming. Scientists report that data shows after 2 degrees warming we will have run away warming. By 2020 no one will be able to deny the science, by 2050 people will probably start migrating, by 2100 it's just plain going to suck.
edit on 24-3-2013 by Kali74 because: (no reason given)



posted on Mar, 24 2013 @ 02:34 PM
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The article does not really address extreme storms. It is about a model which shows that warming leads to more storms which produce storm surges.

Strange though, it seems the model is sort of retroactive. Basing it's predictions on historical data. Not a climate model at all. Seems a bit simplistic as well as making assumptions about correlation and causality.

Here, we relate a homogeneous record of Atlantic tropical cyclone activity based on storm surge statistics from tide gauges to changes in global temperature patterns.

www.pnas.org...



posted on Mar, 24 2013 @ 02:42 PM
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reply to post by Phage
 



"If the temperature rises an additional degree, the frequency will increase by 3-4 times and if the global climate becomes two degrees warmer, there will be about 10 times as many extreme storm surges. This means that there will be a 'Katrina' magnitude storm surge every other year," says Aslak Grinsted and he points out that in addition to there being more extreme storm surges, the sea will also rise due to global warming. As a result, the storm surges will become worse and potentially more destructive. Read more at: phys.org...


I think the title was simply alluding to this.



posted on Mar, 24 2013 @ 02:55 PM
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reply to post by Kali74
 

I know. The thing is, storm surges are dependent on a number of factors not just storm intensity. That's the point about correlation and causality that I alluded to.


Hurricane Ike, a category 2 storm, produced 15-20 foot surges.
Hurricane Opal, a category 3 storm, produced a 24 foot surge.


SURGEDAT is already providing surprising insights into storm surge climatology and the relationship between hurricane landfall, storm intensity and storm surge levels. For example, the database has blown away the stereotype that wind speed relates directly to storm surge level. Keim and Needham found that some tropical storms that produce only moderate wind speeds according to the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale can produce unexpected levels of peak storm surge due to their large and slow-moving nature.


Certain areas prone to hurricanes may be more vulnerable from storm surge than others. SURGEDAT revealed that, rather contrary to common sense, storm surge height may be more related to the amount of time a hurricane spends over open water before striking a location than to number of hurricane strikes in a particular location. Despite the fact that the Texas, Louisiana and Mississippi coasts do not sustain as many hurricane strikes as many locations in Florida and Alabama, these coastlines generally observe the greatest storm surge magnitudes according to SURGEDAT.

www.lsu.edu...
edit on 3/24/2013 by Phage because: (no reason given)



posted on Mar, 24 2013 @ 03:06 PM
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For all of this global warming stuff - the planet experienced greenhouse gasses, higher than they are now, "reportedly" around 15 million years ago. Here is a site that offers explanation www.sciencedaily.com...

This may be another cycle like that. If so it may go back the other way. I do feel that humans need to wake up and gear living more toward a proper relationship with the nature of ourselves and the planet. We are so out of touch with the facts of how symbiotic our relationship is to the planet and all it offers. I do believe it is our fault that SOME species are dying at such a high rate from overly aggressive agriculture and natural resource industries. They've gotten out of hand without thinking about all the natural whiplash that would occur, including super storms, and we must all now pay the price for that along with a possibly natural planetary cycle. Hopefully it IS a cycle of the planet. If it is things will even out after time. If we keep being stupid, however, things could get MUCH worse.
edit on 24-3-2013 by Opportunia because: clarification



posted on Mar, 24 2013 @ 03:38 PM
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Will never happen.
We have already entered a Dalton Minimum, i.e. a mini Ice Age until 2030. Everybody in Europe is STILL suffering one of the longest coldest Winters for many years. The extreme storms have been caused by the JET Stream moving about 1000 miles south. I've read many letters from people fed up to the back teeth as to when things are going to warm up. What happens is fringes of the ice caps and really cold water is diluting the salinity of the Atlantic and pushing the Jet Stream south. Indeed, back in the 70's the English paper The Times speculated on this very scenario, but took it further than that, said Britain would become icebound.
edit on 24-3-2013 by mclinking because: missed letters



posted on Mar, 24 2013 @ 03:47 PM
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According to a recent post on 'climate depot' there has been no increase in global mean temperature for the last 16 years, same as recent posts have stated that Arctic and Antarctic sea ice have been increasing, With so much strange weather globally, I am not surprised.



posted on Mar, 24 2013 @ 04:01 PM
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reply to post by Phage
 


Yeah, the timing of Sandy and the last major snow storm the NE coast went through had a lot to do with the surge being so high, the duration of both storms lasted through 2 high tides iirc. I would imagine though that storm intensity would be the most major factor not because of wind but because of churning ocean waters as it goes. Though I guess wind would be doing the churning lol.
edit on 24-3-2013 by Kali74 because: (no reason given)





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