Potential N. Korean War Strategies

Good day ATS!

I will start off by saying, PLEASE do not just post more comments like "china will never allow it" or " its just saber rattling".

I've heard it, and I know enough about psychology, mass-psychology, world wars, and general history to know that a nuclear country is a dangerous one. Particularly when they already have NOTHING to lose. I also roundly dismiss the idea that they would be instantly obliterated if they were to attack South Korea, particularly if they attack Japan as well. While researching North Korean strategy I found this fantastic analysis based on some of RAND's think-tanks on the subject as well. Some highlights:

Expected Damages and Consequence Management
As discussed earlier, even a small nuclear detonation of four kilotons or less, such as the North Korean test of 2009, would probably kill tens of thousands of people if it occurred in a densely populated area. According to Rand analyst Bruce Bennett, even a one-kiloton nuclear attack against a city like Busan could cause up to 72,000 casualties, depending on where the weapon was detonated (an attack on Seoul would likely cause even more casualties). [53] This is important for North Korea because if Pyongyang did choose to conduct a nuclear attack the two most likely countries targeted would be Japan or South Korea. This becomes all the more compelling if one is to consider the fact that some 220,000 foreigners live in Seoul. [54] In this author’s view, Seoul would be a less likely target of a nuclear weapon than another major city in South Korea because of its close proximity to North Korea and because this is considered the historic “crown jewel” of Korean art, culture, and society by both North and South Korea (besides, North Korea can rain havoc on Seoul with chemical weapons fired by missiles and long-range artillery). But there are large numbers of foreigners in other South Korean metropolitan areas as well, and certainly the same applies to Japan. What all this means is that a nuclear attack on South Korea or Japan will not just kill civilian nationals. It is likely to also kill a great number of foreigners (many of them Americans), and if certain key metropolitan areas are targeted, a large number of military personnel as well.

Given the asymmetric thinking that the North Koreans are well known for integrating into their planning process, there are a number of delivery systems for a plutonium bomb that the North Koreans could use. The first and most obvious method would be to simply drop a plutonium bomb from an aircraft. The North Koreans have aircraft that are assessed to be capable of conducting such a mission. The H-5 aircraft is the Chinese version of the old Soviet IL-28 light bomber. The Chinese are thought have given many of these aircraft to the North Koreans sometime during or after the 1960s, and there are currently around 80 H-5s in the North Korean air force inventory. [31] The H-5 is an old aircraft (though likely well maintained by the North Korean air force), it is very vulnerable to air defenses in both South Korea and Japan, and the North Koreans would likely have to limit the weight of the weapon that it carried just for it to get off of the ground. The weight limits of the H-5 are important for consideration. This may have been the reason for the relatively low projected yield of the nuclear weapons the North Koreans tested underground in 2006 and 2009. By limiting the size of the weapon, they may have been testing a device that would be small enough to fit onto one of their aircraft, yet large enough to produce an explosion that would kill tens of thousands of people. [32] Despite the sophistication of Japanese and South Korean air defenses, using asymmetry, and even trickery, it is possible that a North Korean aircraft might be able to trick its way into South Korean or Japanese airspace. But it would take intricate planning, and a lot of luck. Thus, one has to believe that if this is one of the planned delivery systems for a nuclear weapon, it is unlikely to be the primary choice.
Another delivery means for a nuclear weapon that is far more ominous would be that of using a ship disguised as a merchant cargo vessel or a trawler. This is far more ominous than it sounds on the surface. In times of tension, Japanese and South Korean port authorities would likely be on the lookout for North Korean ships transiting their ports. But what must be considered in the North Korean modus operandi is that the method of surprise has often been a key aspect of any operation or provocation. What makes the scenario of a ship sailing into a Japanese or South Korean port and then detonating a nuclear weapon even more compelling is the fact that the North Koreans often “re-flag” their ships, sailing under the flags of other nations (this has been a largely successful mode of operation for them in the past). [33] There are two key advantages for using a merchant ship or a specially equipped fishing trawler as a delivery means for a nuclear weapon: 1) It would be much easier to get this delivery means past defensive measures in South Korea or Japan because of the high scale of merchant vessel traffic that transits their ports; and 2) a primitive weapon would probably be less limited by size than a weapon carried on an aircraft such as the H-5.
The scenarios for using a ship as the delivery means for a nuclear weapon are diverse—and perhaps this is what makes them so ominous. A merchant ship or a fishing trawler could be equipped with a primitive nuclear device and then sailed into a major South Korean port city such as Busan or Pohang, or Ulsan. Once the weapon was detonated in such a populous area, it would likely kill tens of thousands of people (even if it were a primitive weapon). In a port like Pohang, the possibility exists that is would also kill a large number of military personnel (in addition to the high civilian casualty count), as it is also the home of a ROK Marine division. The Pohang area is also frequently the site of combined training with U.S. and ROK Marines, and if it was during such a time period the possibility exists that many U.S. personnel would be counted among the casualties as well. [34] Busan is a key reception and staging portal to the Peninsula. [35] Detonating a nuclear weapon there would shut down a key shipping and air node. Busan would be very vulnerable to an attack due to the high population and symbolism—it was the only spot not overrun by the DPRK during the Korean War and thus, from Pyongyang’s perspective, carries with it the shame associated with the notion of a “foreign stronghold” in Korea. [36] There is also a large Japanese presence there. [37] Last, it is located in the province where much of the political power comes from in South Korea. Literally all the presidents (up to and including Lee Myungbak), with the exception of Kim Dae-jung, have hailed from Gyeongsang-do. [38]
Merchant and naval ports would also be very susceptible to attack if North Korea chose to use a ship as the delivery means to attack Japan. A merchant ship or fishing trawler could make a port call at the cities of Yokohama or Sasebo (among many others). Yokohama opens into Tokyo Bay, and is a highly populated area where Japanese casualties would be maximized. Sasebo is also the home of a large U.S. Navy base. A detonation of a nuclear device there would cause not only a large amount of Japanese deaths (likely in the thousands), but would also have the potential to kill thousands of Americans—both military and civilians. [39]
If one is to wonder why North Korea would attack Japan instead of South Korea (or in addition to South Korea), the answer is rather simple: A nuclear attack on Japan immediately before a full-scale war were to commence on the Korean peninsula (or soon thereafter) would create immense problems in both the ROK-U.S. alliance and the Japan-U.S. alliance. Such an attack would likely cause such outrage among the Japanese populace, that the Prime Minister would be pressured to take immediate action against the North Koreans. This would of course cause great angst in Seoul, where any direct Japanese involvement in a war on the Korean peninsula would likely be simply unacceptable. As the United States sought to navigate the diplomatic and military minefields that seeking an acceptable solution to both of its key allies in East Asia would cause, North Korean conventional forces could be advancing through the Cheorwon Valley and the Kaesong-Munsan Corridor. Indeed, a North Korean nuclear attack on Japan would strike not only a tragic blow to the country affected, but would likely be successful in causing political turmoil that would create vulnerabilities in the military reactions of the United States, South Korea, and Japan.

Link here nautilus.org... k-scenarios/

This seems like a very reasonable analysis of how the situation might occur. However, I'm not sure it would be their only, and best option. Anyone else have another STRATEGIC idea?

In fact, just today I saw this pop up on the net...
www.thesun.co.uk...

Seems that this slightly aged report does match with their own perceptions of how to attack. Also, they've been hack attacking fervently over the last few weeks. Perhaps their waiting to attack until they finally score a major digital hit on the infrastructure?

Thanks again for everyone's participation in advance.





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Nice post....all they have to do is hit Fukushima (as referenced here) and game over for a lot more than they could hit trying to attack multiple locations strategically....and Fukushima is only 880 miles from Pyongyang....easily attainable with their current tech.

Of course they would have to be MAD to do so as it would likely ensure their complete annihilation as well. This would be a most effective end game for them but certainly would require a foreknowledge that it would cause drastic worldwide damages.

reply to post by Vasa Croe


That is something that will never happen. That is the "impossible" my signature talks about - now to the "improbable".

A message for North Korea's soldiers incase of an attack

"'This is not how it must happen. We do not need war. We will give you food & shelter & electricity. Do not fight for your leader. Your government has lied to you, there is no need for this. No suffering, no pain and no more death. Think of your people. Lay down your weapons, and we will not destroy you''

South Korean and Japanese defences would have to be first, then any base in these areas that can form a counter attack would be next. After that i think the need to "dig in" would be the next thing to do as they couldnt seriously take the fight to the US without another nations help. Sure they could have a go at any US ships in the area, but by then i think they'd be toast.

reply to post by auto73912621

"A grim Ministry of Defense (MOD) “URGENT ACTION” bulletin to all Strategic Missile Forces (SMF) is warning these nuclear units to prepare for “Dead Hand” operations over growing fears that at least 5 atomic-bomb equipped North Korean submarines have “successfully evaded” US Naval Forces and are preparing to strike targets in South Korea, Japan and North America."

www.eutimes.net... = SOURCE

I think submarines, or shipping boats are by FAR the most likely. And do not limit it to Japan and South Korea, the USA mainland would also be involved.

God Bless,

Originally posted by FraternitasSaturni
reply to post by Vasa Croe

 

That is something that will never happen. That is the "impossible" my signature talks about - now to the "improbable".

Ha...guess it all depends on just how crazy they are and how driven they are to make a point. If that happened I would think it would also unite most countries in a race to find a fix rather than letting the radiation slowly spread worldwide and kill everything.

To me this is the most frightening scenario to be posted on ATS about current events. Hoping NK has not even thought about this or if they have it has already been discounted as an option.

China will NEVER let the Koreans re-unify, its all because of "$". China does NOT want any more economic competition from anyone else in that region of the Pacific, because China is FULL of really hard-working, smart business people who love being rich! The idea of the North Koreans going to war is a dead end, since they would get ANHILIATED pretty quick. Even if the Chinese back them up. The best way to solve this issue? Make sure the South Koreans never have to worry about they're backs, keep them economically viable, and get the North and South back together, like happened in Berlin. It must be tough living in Korea, a country that has constantly been used as a 'buffer' for generations. I'd like to see a united Korea, the world would definitely be a better place. You never know, I never thought I'd see Germany re-united in my life time, but hey Presto! there ya go! it happened. But the idea NK going to war with SK, it's just stupid with a capitol "STOOP" !

Source

This photo is available through many other sources as well.

While, I don't think anyone should head for the hills just yet, we might be underestimating their abilities.

There is a lot of talk on ATS saying 'there is no way' 'their missiles can't go far enough to do anything' 'Little Kim is full of hot air' etc, etc, etc..

But, since we really don't know exactly what they have or what the exact capabilities are being that they are so secretive in everything except for their anti-america rhetoric, I am not going to write them off so easily.

I hope that for the sake of their people who will be killed in the event of a retaliation in the event of an attack, that they are bluffing.

reply to post by Vasa Croe


Little kim is willing to wage war to make a stand, to prove a point, he has much to prove to his generals (specially the old ones) to his people and to himself to get away from the shadow of his father.

Hes there however to assure the destruction the DPKR or the destruction of the world - as much as sometimes it seems like it, hes not - because if he were, he would have already done something or everything - people that have nothing to lose are extremely dangerous, he has much to lose so hes not as dangerous as people think he is.

However, he may act by impulse depending on certain degree of provocation, and lets be honest here, hes being provoked and put to the test, and he can see it. Hes probably biting his hat in anger that he cant actually do anything without a) china support b) inflict massive damage to south korea but assure his own destruction even if it is a war by attrition - it will not be an easy war for the us or south korea to win, but they will eventually win with massive casualties and it would be an ugly terrible war but like I said the us would eventually end up winning... actually not the US themselves but more like south korea because the us are not in the position of taking so many losses - the us would mostly provide air support and logistics and all that backstage support that would allow SK to win the war.

So... I wouldnt worry about little kim doing something like attacking fukushima. Fukishima is already bad as it is... doesnt need lil kim to make things worse really. Without him, your children will still be hearing about fukushima when they have their own kids like you still hear of chernobyl today... and chernobyl was almost 30 years ago - I'm 33... time flies, same yea the challenger exploded I think...

Anyway... Now if he does make some outrageous ww3-like strike somewhere... its because he has china support and thats a whole different ball game.

Originally posted by daryllyn

Source

This photo is available through many other sources as well.

So what. Is it armed? Is it just a dummy for show? Do you remember the red square parades during the cold war? Back then the US military made estimates of Russian nuclear strength based on the number of warheads the soviets paraded through the square. After the cold war they found out the same missile was going round in circles !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!1

reply to post by yorkshirelad

And?

We cannot be sure exactly what their capabilities are.

'Sweat in peace, bleed not in war.'

reply to post by auto73912621


Great post.

People have a tendency to think tactically rather than strategically.

I tend to stay away from most North Korea posts because of that.

right theres only so much verbal diarumpis i can take. Its hilarious. Nk are never gona fling a punch. There is nuhin to slever about. I wish they wud jst shut the fuk up coz there all mouth no bottle. If ur wound up about all this move on a war is never gonna happen. Nk would be suicide to fight the west a single b2 was develipef to wipe them out look at the stats. They go on about b52s lol america has weapons unseen in global combat stRing at them haha area 51 unseen techology x

what i meant to say was area 51 has technology that scares the us military never mind nk lol they are on suicide watcb

nk will commit suicide. One person in the pentagon can wipe them out with the flick of a switch. The drone will take off from area yes u guess it 51 why u think its so secure . . . .

If it was so easy to blow off NK, then why did we not achieve that objective in the 50s?

Surely to god they were weaker back then than they are today.

I am sure whatever China has NK has, cant trust either of them.

Originally posted by GERRY041284
nk will commit suicide. One person in the pentagon can wipe them out with the flick of a switch. The drone will take off from area yes u guess it 51

why u think its so secure . . . .

This is naive thinking. The United States will not sacrifice Los Angeles for Seoul.

Originally posted by Jauk3
A message for North Korea's soldiers incase of an attack

"'This is not how it must happen. We do not need war. We will give you food & shelter & electricity. Do not fight for your leader. Your government has lied to you, there is no need for this. No suffering, no pain and no more death. Think of your people. Lay down your weapons, and we will not destroy you''

edit on 22-3-2013 by Jauk3 because: (no reason given)

They've heard these words before only to be betrayed by the United States.

Here is the North Korean war strategy: suitcase nukes

www.dailynk.com...

These are the weapons they have been testing; that's why the yields are so small.