posted on Mar, 10 2013 @ 04:22 PM
reply to post by MariaLida
This below is good to know.
Now geologists believe they need to look further into the past, thousands of years, to capture a fault's true history.
I like geologists that keep it real and seek further learning, especially in this instance.
The instrumental data and observations are about 120 years old, but the history of plate tectonics is over 4 billion years old," said Fumiko
Tajima, a seismologist at the Ludwig Maximilian University in Munich, Germany. "Using the seismic catalog to predict an earthquake is like using the
data for one second [of Earth's history]. The statistics are not sufficient at all."
They aren't sufficient and we can do better, this is for sure. I am glad they are striving to make this field better in predicting.
We now realize that things are much more variable in space and time than we would like to believe," Stein told OurAmazingPlanet. "That in turn
creates a deep uncertainty in our ability to forecast the future."
Again, this above is such a real and down to earth statement... a humble one at that.
For geoscientists, Tohoku was a reminder of the complexities of nature, Stein, of Northwestern University said. "It's really starting to sink in
that the world is much more complicated than we would have liked to believe."
It is much more complicated and I hope and pray California does not go through the same as Japan did two years ago. Surely they are striving quickly
to prevent whatever they can before its too late. I am not so sure its possible today... not yet, anyway.
Even an early warning system would probably not give a city much time to move to higher ground. A few minutes is definitely not enough time. We need
hours, if not days and there seems to be no hope in sight just yet for this type of early warning system.