Mars due for possible Dinosaur Killer sized Comet impact in 2014 ...

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Evidently, in October of 2014, a comet similar in scale to the Dinosaur Killer that impacted Earth 65 Million years ago, may very well impact Mars.

Boom! That will be a sight to see, and possibly give up some really fantastic geological data.

The comet is called C/2013 A1 (Siding Spring), discovered on Jan. 3, 2013 by the Australian veteran comet hunter Robert McNaught. As soon as it was announced, astronomers at the Catalina Sky Survey looked at their own data and found it in observations from Dec. 8, 2012, which helped nail down the orbit (I explain how that works in a previous article about asteroid near-misses). Extrapolating its orbit, they found it will make a very near pass of Mars around Oct. 19, 2014, missing the planet by the nominal distance of about 100,000 kilometers (60,000 miles).

Thusfar, as listed in the ex-text, it's projected to be a near-miss.
Still, we can hope for some fireworks?

The article is pretty thorough in discussing close pass, impact, and the range of possibilities resulting from projections.

Clicky the link at the top!

reply to post by Druscilla


Interesting find Druscilla snf. Hope it wont hit. Also wonders if Jupiter & Saturn have been ENCOUNTERED as well. Recently

NAMASTE*******

emmm...

now that is heading its way so close ..then i wish that at least it hits,,and that NASA do their best as usual to study and capture this event as much as possible...

but...im so like shocked this can be true...that during my life time I am here witnessing a killer asteroid impact on such a close planet....this scare the hell out of me

and to only know about this now..just shows..that these events are short noticed

I bet curiosity gets some good pics of that, right before it likely gets smashed trying.
As long as this thing stays far enough from Earth, it will be an interesting one to watch. S&F.

as if pulled in a debris cloud that clearly does not exist nor its invisible tail. But this is all speculation of ELENIN

Originally posted by PutAQuarterIn
I bet curiosity gets some good pics of that, right before it likely gets smashed trying.
As long as this thing stays far enough from Earth, it will be an interesting one to watch. S&F.

Wonder if MRO already sees as well ...

bye bye rovers??? Guess it depends on where it hits and how much damage it would do...I would imagine the debris cloud would screw with coms to sats for a very very long time...Would be some pretty crazy footage they would catch of such an event if they could send it off before their demise!!

There's all sorts of nifty good that can come from this if the impact happens, as well as bad.

Bad: all our robots on the planet die from not only the possible planet-wide firestorm, but the airborne material resulting from impact will obscure the surface potentially for YEARS, putting a damper on any future missions that would rely on solar power, but likely halting any plans for investing Billions into a unpredictable planetary climate.

Good: Geological data giving us a better idea about what a similar event would do to us if it happened on Earth would give us tons of info to pick at and argue about for decades.
The added water from the comet could make things more interesting on the Martian surface.
If there's a polar impact, the added water from the comet plus the planetary firestorm melting water ice planet wide and potentially saturating the thin Martian atmosphere with water steam could give us the rain clouds on Mars, if only for a few years.
... and much much much more.

It's a really exciting event full of fantastic possibility.

I read awhile back on msnbc.com that it would knock out all rovers AND all sats that orbit mars. then something like 4 months afterwards earth would be bombarded by debris crazy stuff!

and we have rovers on mars so we`ll get an up close and personal view of the show, assuming our little rovers don`t get whacked by it when it hits.RUN FORREST RUN!

If it is indeed a close miss and if you believe in the Electric Universe as I do, then we will be on for an amazing electrical ark show. We would be able to see planetary scarring as it happens! It would be amazing. But with planetary scarring comes more mars meteorites in all different sizes headed to earth. Maybe a new valles mariners would be formed from the scarring, as that is what caused it in the first place.

another thread is here
www.abovetopsecret.com...

[color=696969]Just for the record: It's possible that I don't know what I'm talking about, but that won't stop me from acting as if I do.




The comet itself is nothing to worry about. However, it could have an effect on the Asteroid Belt that might not be as predictable. Whether it is the the Comet's gravity, or even a slight bump with the dust, which in turn could alter the orbit of 1(or more) other objects just hanging around our Solar System.....






......or maybe not.

So motivational news, thinking about future manned mission to Mars...... Volunteers?

reply to post by Druscilla

Interesting thread, thanks for the finding!

Direct data can be seen on the JPL Small-body Database.
Also, there are regularly updates on SpaceObs.org site, with the following comments written three days ago:

After adding the recent measurements, taken by Tomas Vorobjov at Kitt Peak Observatory (March 1, 2013), the distance of closest approach increased to 0.00047 AU (70 500 km). CA time is October 19, 2014, 19:09:24.48 UT. I think what we can fairly accurately estimate these parameters, before the temporary pause in the observations of this comet, due to it’s low elongation.

And this one written two days ago:

Initially the calculation was based on the recent observations known for me, including observations by ISON-NM observatory (Feb. 27), Martin Mašek (Feb. 27) and Tomas Vorobjov (March 1). Estimation was made on a sample of 1,000 virtual particles (clones), calculated by the Monte-Carlo method and based on the nominal orbit solution. Calculation shown what only 2 of 1,000 clones will collide with Mars, i.e. 0.2%.

Late at night, we received information what found two another archival observations (October 4, 2012) by Pan-STARRS. Now, arc of observations increased to 148 days! Based on the new data, calculations was restarted again. The collision probability decreased in 2.5 times. Neither clone from a sample of 1,000 virtual particles not collided with Mars. Final calculation is based on a sample of 10,000 clones! It shown that only 8 virtual objects will be collide with the Red Planet, i.e. probability of this event fell from 0.2% to 0.08%, but still high enough for the events of such scale. Minimal distance of close approach, according nominal orbit solution is 0.00039 AU or ~58,000 km.

Check out as well Emily Lakdawalla blog where she gives some very good informations about the upcoming event, with some interesting links to read and diagrams, like this one:


C/2013 A1 (Siding Spring) will pass extremely close to Mars on October 19, 2014. This orbital diagram was based on slightly older observational data that showed the closest approach happening on October 20. The comet will be coming up from south of the ecliptic in a direction opposite to that of Mars'. (The orbits are drawn in dark colors where they dip below the ecliptic, and bright colors when they rise above the ecliptic. Since Earth's orbit is, by definition, in the ecliptic, its orbit is bright everywhere.)

What it could looks like from Mars ground:



At the actual estimated distance, if not hitting Mars, coma's comet will pass through the planet, with all the possible damages for the rovers, let alone the amazing show that it will be!

I sure hope the Mars dinosaurs get out in time

Amazing! A Mars thread talking rocks that is actually exciting. I am flabbergasted!

Ten dollars says it lands right on the Mars Rover.

Please continue the conversation in the existing thread.