Another asteroid similar to Russian meteor zooming past us harmlessly

Originally posted by WorShip
reply to post by CLPrime

 

Also, you would expect the frequency to increase at the poles since they move less - so have we potentially lost data there.

This is something we can account for.
And, besides, this is not necessarily true.

Also, is there not a theory that, based on observations of mass extinction events related to comet phenomena occurring every 126,000 years, that asteroid frequency increases in these periods due to movement of celestial bodies seen or unseen? I believe we are currently about 26,000 years since the last extinction event of this nature. Therefore, it could be entirely accurate that asteroid frequency has increased.

The most recent extinction that could possibly be linked to an impact event is the Middle Miocene disruption of around 14 million years ago.
There was no extinction 26,000 years ago, and the most recent extinction in general is an ongoing one that began 50,000 years ago (and obviously has no connection to meteors).

The cyclic extinction theory that I believe you're thinking of is the Nemesis hypothesis, which was meant to explain an apparent 26-million-year extinction pattern as being a result of a brown dwarf interacting periodically with the Oort cloud.
There is no evidence whatsoever for the existence of such an object.

Nice post 'the SmokingMan' -
This year will be unprecedented for space debris.
We are extremely lucky to be alive to view these remarkable instances.

reply to post by CrypticSouthpaw
@ CripticSouthpaw -

I sent you a personal U2U email message.
(in your forum message folder)
You and I think much alike!

Here is a comprehensive thread I wrote about this years comets.
www.abovetopsecret.com...

Originally posted by boncho
The Bugs are launching meteors at us. Where is Casper Van Deen?

Give the SciFi channel a call, he's probably between giant squid attacks.

They'll probably throw in Kevin Sorbo for free.

Originally posted by burntheships
Also, this...now they say the Russian asteroid was in Earths orbit for thousands of years,
and they did not know this?

That's not what the quote you posted says, it says that the asteroid "crossed Earth's orbit regularly for thousands of years", not the same thing as it was in Earth's orbit.

These "experts" I think have to make educated guess much.

If they have never seen it before how could they know a thing about it?

Now that they have a little orbiting data (the last part of the last orbit, just before it hit Earth) they can see where did it came, but with just this last part of the orbit I'm sure they can only get a rough idea of it's original orbit.

reply to post by ArMaP


Your right again ArMap,
I stand corrected on the orbit being crossing through rather than in...

One question though, how do they now know it was crossing earths orbit,
if they do not have the ability to track it?

reply to post by rickymouse


Now, this is by no means, NO MEANS my strong suit, but I am pretty sure that very reliable mathematical analysis can be performed and run, using data sets assembled from a combination of old data, and new learning, to establish at least a good estimate of what is out there.

It is of course impossible for scientists to count every bit of rock bigger than a fridge freezer, because we just do not have enough eyes in the sky. But they can, and do perform feats of mathematical brilliance, which are at the very least good enough to base future missions and initiatives on, ones which may shed better light on this subject, and many many others.

I think you ought to look into probabilistic analysis, which is a field which may pertain to the sort of work required, in order to establish good estimates of what is out there.

Also, it is worth noting that although scientists cannot currently count every object that floats around out there, they do the very best they can with what they have. Considering the vast numbers involved, and the possibility of objects vectored from unusual or anomalous angles, I find it odd that they do not miss more.

Originally posted by rickymouse

Originally posted by thesmokingman


Well, just as the article states, we are not being visited with any more asteroids than we have before, they are just getting better at detecting them. This asteroid is about the same size as the one that landed in Russia a few weeks back. It has absolutely no chance of hitting the earth. You know, with us being able to detect these things like we can now, maybe in the next few years we can send crews to further study and possibly try and alter the projection or blow it up.

science.nbcnews.c om
(visit the link for the full news article)

If they weren't able to detect the asteroids before, how do they actually know that we are not being visited by more asteroids. You need two known figures to evaluate something like that properly. Has an asteroid like the one in Russia hit the earth in say the last thirty years? I think this info was created without proof at all.

The truth is that science really does not know for sure if there are more asteroids. The addition of technology cannot be used as proper evidence to evaluate this.

The astronomical technology we have today is almost a magnitude better than just 10 years ago. That kind of increase definitively has an effect on increased detection capability, but even then, it has virtually no effect on objects coming in to the solar system from the direction of the Sun relative to Earth. This is what we really need to worry about.

reply to post by charlyv


They just stuck a satellite out there very recently between the earth and the sun to look from that direction. It somehow blocks out the area of the sun itself and analyzes the rest. The chance of an asteroid coming right from the direction of the sun is slim but still possible because it can be pulled around the sun as it passes. Still that is better. We have had a lot better detection lately but my original statement stands. There is not anything to compare our present observations to from say ten years or more ago to know if it is increasing. It doesn't really matter, it is just something that I am aware of. Someone said the military has the equipment but that is only for the asteroids actually hitting the atmosphere, not for the ones passing by. We could even have less flying by now than twelve years ago, there is no telling for sure either way. I'm just a stickler for the whole truth, if I see a discrepancy than I mention it.

They seem like probes as they fly by say hi wave good bye or is it HELLO
if that was so best evidence for ALL to see would be directional changes... OUTTA BOX