Potential Danger For Kamchatka, Russia as Several Large Quakes Strike?

Several large quakes have struck near the Kamchatka Peninsula with two occurring back to back in the last minutes:
6.7 91km SE of Ozernovskiy, Russia 2013-03-01 13:20:50 50.945°N 157.476°E 31.7
6.5 93km SE of Ozernovskiy, Russia 2013-03-01 12:53:52 50.938°N 157.511°E 40.9
6.9 85km SE of Ozernovskiy, Russia 2013-02-28 14:05:51 50.934°N 157.339°E 52.5

earthquake.usgs.gov...

The big problem I see here is that the magnitudes are too large, and too close in proximity to the original 6.9- just like what happened recently in Santa Cruz Islands. The quakes are not only close in magnitude, but they are close in proximity, too:



That means that the 6.9 did not release the vast majority of the stress in this area.

This could easily be forecasting a larger pending quake, and destructive tsunami. So the alert goes out, despite the fact that the naysayers will accuse me of attention-whoring, blah blah blah.

I also wondered why there were no aftershocks to the 6.9 quake, and these imo are too large for the usual straight aftershocks- which should have been below 6.0. So lookout Russia, bad things may be in the works, even though I pray I am wrong.

Hopefully nothing will happen, but this does not look good.

Hey, TA? How connected and solid as a plate IS the Pacific plate? I look at the IRIS map and can't help but see the ONE area that has NOT gotten any quakes of notable size. I can't help but get a bad feeling it's not a good indication but a sign of a jammed spot in the works and a building stress point?

(Although Nevada and Idaho both show magnitude 4+ quakes in the last 24 hours too... Hmm..)

IRIS Seismic Monitor

reply to post by Wrabbit2000


Well just northeast of there is where some scientists suspect the plate is breaking off in sections and sinking into the mantle. This might be part of that process, but might not. Not sure.

And umm, I'm talking about Russia here and you're talking about Idaho/Nevada?

This is interesting. These could either be an indicator of a larger quake in the future or they could also indicate that the tension is corrected. I would say that there may be more midsize quakes on both sides myself or a bunch of smaller quakes along the plate boundries.

reply to post by TrueAmerican

Well, as you;ve been noting.... The quakes are around the pacific plate from the far South West (Santa Cruz) to what is now a very active and large Russian one. I'd seen the 6.9 last night and it got my attention. I hadn'' even realized the U.S. had two more until opening IRIS for this thread to see what it looked like compared to last night, before the follow on quakes came.

You've been noting its not in isolation we're seeing all this, right? If it's a plate in the sense I recall from my classes a lifetime and childhood ago, then stress relieved in one area is stress transferred to another, isn't it? By IRIS, Even South America has gotten a few big ones ...just one stretch of the East or West sides of the plate hasn't. The U.S. Pacific coast. So... I hope it's not all as interconnected as it might look.

Originally posted by Wrabbit2000
You've been noting its not in isolation we're seeing all this, right? If it's a plate in the sense I recall from my classes a lifetime and childhood ago, then stress relieved in one area is stress transferred to another, isn't it?

Well sort of, but I think the scientific way of understanding it is that partial stress is transferred to adjacent areas. Lol, not an ocean across. But believe me, I struggle with this too sometimes as I watch real time data- when for example I see small quakes occur in Chile, and simultaneously sometimes in Guam or Japan. It does make me wonder if there are much larger connections sometimes. But the data is not empirical, and there is just not enough of a consistent correlation to establish causal links.

Originally posted by rickymouse
This is interesting. These could either be an indicator of a larger quake in the future or they could also indicate that the tension is corrected. I would say that there may be more midsize quakes on both sides myself or a bunch of smaller quakes along the plate boundries.

Yeah maybe...But in watching real time data for the area, it is bizarre how the fault is not moving at all, not even after those three big quakes- like it usually would after an area ruptures. Nothing like what we saw in Santa Cruz Islands. And this is another reason why I suspect something not good coming. Could be hours, could be days, could be two weeks. It's like the fault has started to slip, but just hasn't finished yet.

That area is very interesting. That place is full of active volcanoes and quakes like these can be either cause eruption, or are signs of coming eruption. There is always some volcano erupting there. I wouldn't be surprised if there is supervolcano hiding there.

Good that area is mostly wilderness without any large human population.

Good thread....as usual!

I think your right on the money. This is a very serious situation in my unhumble opinion.

The lack of aftershocks is the kicker for me,,,,,Although, I will say, that across the ocean in the Cascadia area, I have seen multiple 6's with NO aftershocks.

So, I am not trying to fear monger, and either is TA, but a large release would potentially affect the west coast and a lot of other places as well.

And for all the naysayers......just dial 1-800- ea........oh...! nervermind

I saw the 6.9 last night, and raised an eyebrow at the first big 6-er this morning before I left to run errands. I'm pretty surprised to see the second one after it. I'm wondering the same as you, if there's a larger one brewing. I'd hope not, but you never know with the Earth, as fond of throwing us curve balls as it is.

well, we are getting into the beginning of March, and March seems to have been having more quakes in the last few years. Just a coincidence?

Well, two separate incidents now of multiple quakes near Kamchatka recently did finally produce a very large quake nearby: 8.2

earthquake.usgs.gov...

Fortunately it was very deep, no tsunami, and so let's hope the place settles down. No aftershocks reported yet, but that may be due to the depth. And it also could be there have been some smaller aftershocks below 4.5 that are just not getting reported. I haven't been monitoring last few days, been too busy....So I can't speak to that really...

But there may be something to these swarms that happen where magnitudes are less than 1 full magnitude of differential between them as an indicator of bigger quakes to come. Just happened at Santa Cruz Islands too. And this pattern has also been brewing for some time near Fiji/Tonga/Samoa....Would not be surprised to see a massive quake there in the next couple weeks or months. The 7.4 might have been just a teaser.

reply to post by TrueAmerican


This Mag 6.8 aftershock is located a substantial distance (over 300 km) from the rest of the action.



This is looking more and more similar to the way Santa Cruz unfolded, except that these are so deep.

Originally posted by Olivine
This Mag 6.8 aftershock is located a substantial distance (over 300 km) from the rest of the action.

Don't you think it's a bit odd that aftershock is so far away? I mean usually, they spread out from the main shock. They might eventually reach that distance, but not usually right away it seems. Could be trouble- might be outlining the total intended rupture area. Stay tuned... Hopefully this doesn't go all nasty on them.