Fireballs with Sonic Booms increase over 500% from 2005 to 2012

I thought this was interesting, definitely shows a clear trend, most of us have seen tens or hundreds of nightime streaks of light, but it used to be extremely rare to see a daytime fireball, or one with a sonic boom. Please note these are "reports", so it doesn't necessarily mean someone captured it with their smart phone/dashcam/CCTV, so we can rule out the "iphone" or "youtube" effect as the reason for this increase:

American Meteor Society Fireball log:

American Meteor Society log link to 2005

American Meteor Society log 2012

Fireballs reported with sound, either delayed or concurrent:

2004 0

2005 46

2006 41

2007 49

2008 68

2009 69

2010 102

2011 182

2012 246

Notice in 2005 there were no reports with concurrent sound, but those reports have increased dramatically as well. Does that mean fireballs are passing by more closely to those observing them? Does that mean they are larger and instead of burning up in the upper atmosphere are burning up closer to the ground or not fully burning up?

reply to post by PlanetXisHERE


The numbers speak for themselves.....We are entering a weird part of space, with much more activity on the way....

We can't even blame the numbers on lack of technology because the reports are starting a mere 8 years ago and definitely had good technology to spot these and record them back then also....

Weird times we are in that's for sure! I am not into fear mongering or anything, but it is also scary to see things like this also...IMO

Well when you pick just nine years, you can make a trend to match whatever conclusion you like.

How about the previous, oh I don't know... hundred or so years. Do we have data going back that far?

No fireballs at all in 2004? With or without sound? Interesting.
The system for reporting was improved. And more people have learned about it so there are more reports. That does not mean there are more fireballs.

From 2011:

The next logical question is what is causing the apparent increase in fireballs seen this month? The key word here is apparent. It could very well be that there is no increase at all, but rather a marked increase in the number of reported fireballs. Mr. Hankey has worked with the AMS in providing an easy way to report fireball sightings and the general public has responded with a record number of reports so far in January. If you look through the last five years that the AMS has available, you will see an increase in every year. The increase is certainly not as dramatic as January 10 vs. January 11, but that again can be attributed to the recent change in format. I am also confident that no matter the number of NEO's in January 2012, there were still be more fireball reports in January 12 vs. January 11. Interesting subject and I appreciate the contributions of Dirk, Mike, Wayne, and Carl!

Bob Lunsford

Source: click here

reply to post by Phage


It also doesn't mean there aren't more fireballs. Come on Phage. This tired old explanation again? That's total speculation. "Maybe its because the reporting methods have improved"...These are scientific figures. What else do you suggest we go by?

reply to post by Urantia1111

These are scientific figures.

No they aren't. They are voluntary reports using a relatively new system. It is not a scientific sample.

Tell me, when did you become aware of the AMS website? When did you become aware that you could report fireball sightings there? Now, if you saw a fireball before you knew about the website, how could you report it? But now you know about it so if you do see a fireball you can report it. See how it works? As more people learn about the website, more people are able to report their sightings. Multiply you by a lot more people and what do you get? More fireball reports but no real reason to think there are more fireballs.

20 Years ago, i saw a major fireball over Copenhagen, i didn't report it, i did though tell about it to freinds and like.

If i saw one today, i wouldn't hesitate reporting it right away, cause now i know how important it is to register things like that, and i sure would make a thread on ATS

I have to admit it does seem a little unscientific to discount the "dramatic increase" entirely because we dont have past data....I seem to recall many fireball reports comming in the late forties and early fifties.....
There could be a cyclical thing going on.......??

We definately need further and more comprehensive data....
but a 500% increase in ten or so years is signifigantly worth a look......

reply to post by Phage


So when DOES observation of the natural world become "science"? How many years do people have to accumulate data before it qualifies as actual useful information to you? Maybe some of the increase can be attributed to improved efficiency of reporting, but imo not all of it. Of the 500% increase you're saying ALL 500 can be explained by the newness of a website? I doubt it. That's not science either, and you know it.

Originally posted by Urantia1111
reply to post by Phage

 

It also doesn't mean there aren't more fireballs. Come on Phage. This tired old explanation again? That's total speculation. "Maybe its because the reporting methods have improved"...These are scientific figures. What else do you suggest we go by?

Sure, some people will just blame it on the website.

But anecdotal evidence seems to support the website's evidence.

Fireballs with sonic booms are big news today, they would have been big news 30 or 50 years ago. Newspapers, TV and radio love to get ahold of sensational stories like fireballs with sonic booms, it sells ad space, and whether or not there was youtube or smart phones such events have been reported in the media in the past, though the occurence was rare, not because of fewer people, no internet etc - but because these events used to be extremely rare.

Many of us over the past two years can recall reports on the news of booms in places like California/Nevada, Louisiana, the UK concurrent with sightings of daytime fireballs.

Let's not get off-track with the Orwellian distraction of "are we really experiencing what we are really experiencing", and discuss possible reasons for this hugely significant increase in fireballs, especially those with sound.

No one has answered yet my question as to why there were no reports of fireballs with concurrent sound in 2005 yet many in 2012, I think it might be important the fireballs with concurrent sound are on the increase.

reply to post by Urantia1111

So when DOES observation of the natural world become "science"?

When a statistical study can be performed on the data. In this case a good start would be a comparison with statistics on web usage on the AMS website.

Of the 500% increase you're saying ALL 500 can be explained by the newness of a website?

Maybe not all but there hasn't been a 500% increase in fireballs. I haven't seen a fireball lately. If there are 500% more of them I probably should have. Do you really think it's unlikely that there are 5 times as many people who are aware of the website than there were in 2005? You don't think it's likely that 5 times as many people are aware that they can file a report?

In June of 2007 there were 15,500 people a day (in the US) visiting ATS. In May of 2012 there were 53,000. What do you think a count of UFO reports using those figures would show you?

reply to post by PlanetXisHERE

No one has answered yet my question as to why there were no reports of fireballs with concurrent sound in 2005 yet many in 2012,

Because there were few reports.
Why were there no fireballs at all in 2004?

Or maybe it's because Planet X is here.

Originally posted by Phage
reply to post by PlanetXisHERE

 

No one has answered yet my question as to why there were no reports of fireballs with concurrent sound in 2005 yet many in 2012,

Because there were few reports.
Why were there no fireballs at all in 2004?

Or maybe it's because Planet X is here.

edit on 2/28/2013 by Phage because: (no reason given)

Here's a link to the fireballs seen or suspected in 2004. Quite a lot, actually.

www.shadowresearch.com...

reply to post by mclinking

Thanks.
I was specifically referring to the AMS database though.

Originally posted by Phage
reply to post by mclinking

 

Thanks.
I was specifically referring to the AMS database though.

There are so many observation sites. I suppose we need an International site collating all these reports together giving us a better idea and perhaps this is the nearest. However, I saw yesterday there were reports of 18 fireballs over Texas alone - can't recollect the site - but who is going to go to the trouble of forwarding this stuff elsewhere?

Originally posted by Phage
reply to post by Urantia1111

 

These are scientific figures.

No they aren't. They are voluntary reports using a relatively new system. It is not a scientific sample.

Tell me, when did you become aware of the AMS website? When did you become aware that you could report fireball sightings there? Now, if you saw a fireball before you knew about the website, how could you report it? But now you know about it so if you do see a fireball you can report it. See how it works? As more people learn about the website, more people are able to report their sightings. Multiply you by a lot more people and what do you get? More fireball reports but no real reason to think there are more fireballs.

edit on 2/28/2013 by Phage because: (no reason given)

Let me GOOGLE that for you...how to report a meteor

The American Meteor Society was founded in 1911 although it is a lot easier to report online it is the first hit you will have in a search.

I recently witnessed my first daylight fireball after decades of observation and few years of astrophotgraphy this is something I actually thought I would never see.

While I do not believe in Planet X as the cause I do think we can move into a more dusty part of our solar system. It is one reason why some years the meteor showers are stronger than others.

So at what point would you say we are definitely having an increase in activity, instead of more reporting?

Originally posted by PlanetXisHERE

Originally posted by Urantia1111
reply to post by Phage

 

It also doesn't mean there aren't more fireballs. Come on Phage. This tired old explanation again? That's total speculation. "Maybe its because the reporting methods have improved"...These are scientific figures. What else do you suggest we go by?

Sure, some people will just blame it on the website.

But anecdotal evidence seems to support the website's evidence.

Fireballs with sonic booms are big news today, they would have been big news 30 or 50 years ago. Newspapers, TV and radio love to get ahold of sensational stories like fireballs with sonic booms, it sells ad space, and whether or not there was youtube or smart phones such events have been reported in the media in the past, though the occurence was rare, not because of fewer people, no internet etc - but because these events used to be extremely rare.

Many of us over the past two years can recall reports on the news of booms in places like California/Nevada, Louisiana, the UK concurrent with sightings of daytime fireballs.

Let's not get off-track with the Orwellian distraction of "are we really experiencing what we are really experiencing", and discuss possible reasons for this hugely significant increase in fireballs, especially those with sound.

No one has answered yet my question as to why there were no reports of fireballs with concurrent sound in 2005 yet many in 2012, I think it might be important the fireballs with concurrent sound are on the increase.

edit on 28-2-2013 by PlanetXisHERE because: spelling

edit on 28-2-2013 by PlanetXisHERE because: addition

Reported to be increasing.

With this claim you must be saying your God or have some type global surveillance to know that they are actually increasing.

Do not get me wrong, I am not saying one way or another, but this is whats reported.

I have witnessed many over the last 20 years watching the sky with an increase and decrease of frequency.

Sorry X but the cheese seems to have slid right of your cracker with this one.


How do we know as a society how much crime like theft happens, could it be because its reported?

Reported incidents are just that and not an indication of actual numbers.

They could be if all incoming rocks are witnessed and reported but are they?

I know they are not because I have never made any and would not like to seeing as how scared and ignorant society are.

The numbers of fireballs, steaks across the atmosphere and such that I have witnessed some would claim me a messenger from the Bible who will witness signs in the heavens when the time is near.

One the most freakiest was in 1997 witnessing 3 nights in a row almost in the same location with in a 1/2 hour span of time between 10.30pm and 11pm, 3 separate streaks , 2 going similar direction and the other going in another direction.

Many experience such as this which has lead me on a path of understanding.


when you hear the sky is falling claims, invest as much as wish into them but be prepared for the reality that someone has taken you for a ride and the sky isn't falling but you are, and you can get hurt by being lead of a cliff.

Just how I see it.

I viewed things very similar to you in the past X, that's why I might look like I give you a hard time, I mean no disrespect and actually the opposite because I see What I wanted to post about many years ago but realized the only way to beat the establishment is using their own tools.

Scientific ideas can and will be dis-proven/proven but only with the scientific method,

If one says that the science is used to trick the ignorant, well learn the science and prove it wrong by their own method, then their is no debate, so far many claims of science hiding this and that are bunk in my books unless those claims have understood and used the science they are trying to disprove to do such.

All these meteors are sure making living more interesting. People had plenty to talk about around here when that meteor blew up over that town in Russia. Thank you Russia for giving us something to talk about. Sorry about all the broken windows and hurt people.

5.13 am

just came back in from having outside at work and witnessed a quick 1.5 second streak going from east to west above Melbourne. Logic would tell me from experience that this a tiny rock burning up in the high atmosphere.

I could speculate all I want as there a times as soon as I step out side and look up I witness a meteorite it, do I call it a coincidence even though its happened on a number of occasions just as described, the second I step out I look Up and see, could I be one of those lucky people who experience frequent synchronicity, yes I could because too many other synchronizing occurrences such as thoughts of things to come or dreams that give me a deja vu feeling when I actually experience them in reality.

However, things are always changing and to be stuck on one way will leave you behind or worse blind.

We think we are awake or can see here at ATS, that's why so many of us debate our views with such passion.

But that is only my assumption which I dislike to do because assumptions can a will be false.

Originally posted by Phage
I haven't seen a fireball lately. If there are 500% more of them I probably should have.

I now see where you're getting your logic. However, I believe that if the figures collected were to be analyzed using statistics that it would show evidence to suggest an actual increase in the number of fireballs over time.