A possible impact of a comet with Mars in 2014

Originally posted by fiftyfifty
reply to post by FireballStorm

 

My first thought is will the Rovers be in the right place to stand a chance of seeing any impact - if there is one, I hope they are!

I hope so but I imagine all we would see is a blinding flash and then lights out for good. We would have to send new rovers/ satellites before we could see the result close up!

This is what I was thinking.

Curiosity finds something, and it actually has the scientific community going HOLY COW!

But they need to get closer to it.......only to have this comet impact right in that area (if not on top).



Would be our luck, wouldn't it?

reply to post by eriktheawful


I think what they'd want to do is to send the rovers up a hill/mountain so that they have a good all round view. Then providing the distance to the impact was reasonably large, there should be enough time to see the plume and back the rovers off so that they are protected on the opposite side of the hill/mountain to where the blast will hit. It would take some good timing to do, but perhaps it's possible.

Originally posted by FireballStorm
reply to post by eriktheawful

 

I think what they'd want to do is to send the rovers up a hill/mountain so that they have a good all round view. Then providing the distance to the impact was reasonably large, there should be enough time to see the plume and back the rovers off so that they are protected on the opposite side of the hill/mountain to where the blast will hit. It would take some good timing to do, but perhaps it's possible.

sorry, you've got me grinning on this one! hehehehehe.

An image of a turtle trying to dodge traffic going through my head...hehehe.

However, you are right. Hopefully if there is an impact, it's far enough away to not hurt the rovers, or that they could some how get them to cover........

Kiss the rover goodbye, I suppose we will need to send two new three billion dollar rovers to replace it and ten new satellites to orbit Mars after they blow away.

reply to post by rickymouse


Well the rovers may well be toast if it hits in the wrong place, but satellites in orbit should be mostly out of danger. The main risk to them would be meteoroids/micro-meteoroids ejected from the comet itself, and possibly debris thrown up into orbit by the impact.

Either way, the data gathered should be worth the loss.

No... no.. no! This can't be true! Who will save the possible bacteria babies???

In a way I want it to hit but another part of me says no way! There's so much we want to do on the red planet and this could prevent it for a long time to come. Then again such an event would be view-able in our space backyard and we could learn a lot from it.

Where does it state that this comet is ~50km in diameter? The estimated nuclear magnitude of 10.3 would suggest that it is a LOT smaller than that (for comparison, Hale-Bopp was 6.1). However, I can't argue that the trajectory is extremely interesting. That "nominal" approach distance of 0.0007AU is unbelievably close for a comet (far closer to a major planet than any other comet in recorded history apart from the Shoemaker-Levy impact with Jupiter in July 1994), and Wildespace is correct to say that successive updated calculations of the comet's orbit have resulted in this distance getting ever smaller.

If that calculated distance had been quoted on some obscure website, then I wouldn't have given this story the time of day. However, this is the JPL website, and they are the "top dogs" as far as asteroid and comet orbits are concerned. I will be keeping a close eye on this. My thanks go to wildespace for bringing this to my attention

Originally posted by Mogget
Where does it state that this comet is ~50km in diameter? The estimated nuclear magnitude of 10.3 would suggest that it is a LOT smaller than that (for comparison, Hale-Bopp was 6.1).

Fair point. My original post is based on Leonid Elenin's article for his site spaceobs.org... which I helped translate from Russian. Leonid might have been using this table for the size estimate: www.minorplanetcenter.net... but it's more appropriate for asteroids than comets, because the comet nucleus is active and becomes brighter than usual.

There is currently a Facebook discussion between him and other amateur astronomers regarding this, and it seems that we shouldn't expect C/2013 A1 to be any bigger than 30 km.

Time to re-run that simulation at janus.astro.umd.edu...

Energy Released: 4 billion MT (MegaTons of TNT)

QUAKE!! Magnitude 12.0 (largest recorded Earthquake: 9.5)

Crater Diameter: 440.0 km
Crater Depth: 3.6 km

Collisions this energetic occurred only early in the Solar System's history.

Still a whopper!

P.S. While JPL and NASA are certainly the professionals in this job, the official body dealing with comets and asteroids is the Minor Planet Center (MPC). MPC get their data straight from the astronomers and observatories all around the world. www.minorplanetcenter.net...

I wrote a few letters to Dr Brian Marsden at the MPC about various short period comets back in the 90s. I still have the responses in my bedside drawer. I was using Dance of the Planets (ARC Science Simulations; www.arcscience.com) on my PC to study the orbits of short period comets, and I wanted to ask him a few questions about possible identities with past observations. None of them turned out to be correct, but I appreciated the replies. Sadly, he passed away a few years ago

Originally posted by baburak
I hope it hits:
- as far as we know, there's no life on Mars, so no harm there
- it would be a great show - seeing something like this from different perspectives and we would learn more
- it would show to a lot of people that we can't know about every object out there and we could be easily surprised

After the 'great show', expect downpours of asteroids impacting Earth as most meteors and asteroids often come from Mars. Mars is some 35 million miles away. Debris is coming, in fact already is. There's something in the Oort cloud that's knocking comets all over the place, and - have you noticed? - these FOUR comets (PAN STARRS - LEMMON - ISON and A1, plus the recent closest pass asteroid, have all just been discovered in recent months, which tells me there could be a LOT MORE coming our way : we shall see as the year moves on.
Astronomers baffle me! They make these discoveries, often on a daily basis, get all excited, but don't seem to realise that there's something going on.

reply to post by mclinking

most meteors and asteroids often come from Mars.

No, they don't.

Mars is some 35 million miles away

At its closest Mars is 50 million miles from Earth.

Debris is coming, in fact already is.

In fact, "debris" from the formation of the Solar System is always "coming".

There's something in the Oort cloud that's knocking comets all over the place, and - have you noticed? - these FOUR comets (PAN STARRS - LEMMON - ISON and A1, plus the recent closest pass asteroid, have all just been discovered in recent months, which tells me there could be a LOT MORE coming our way : we shall see as the year moves on.

2012 DA14 was discovered last year and has an orbit between that of Earth and Venus.
PANSTARRS was discovered in 2011.
Lemmon was discovered in January of 2012.

What makes you think these comets originate from the Oort cloud?

Do you know how many comets are discovered each year? Here's a hint.
pds-smallbodies.astro.umd.edu...

They make these discoveries, often on a daily basis, get all excited, but don't seem to realise that there's something going on.

What's going on?

I am sure that the Moons that exist within our Solar system, Including Earth's, were formed from asteroid impacts. I don't know this for a fact of course, but to me it makes perfect sense.

Also, Look at all the craters on Mars and our own Moon for example? Obviously they have been bombarded for millions and millions of years. Sooner or later something is gonna happen. The question is, will it be sooner, or later?

A Solar System is much like The game of Billiards (Pool). It would not suprise me if whoever created it new something not so commonly known about the Cosmos. ~$heopleNation

reply to post by Phage


Phage, can I ask what you do for work? Bro, you are ON TOP of this astro stuff!

Originally posted by Phage
reply to post by mclinking

 

most meteors and asteroids often come from Mars.

No, they don't.

Mars is some 35 million miles away

At its closest Mars is 50 million miles from Earth.

Debris is coming, in fact already is.

In fact, "debris" from the formation of the Solar System is always "coming".

There's something in the Oort cloud that's knocking comets all over the place, and - have you noticed? - these FOUR comets (PAN STARRS - LEMMON - ISON and A1, plus the recent closest pass asteroid, have all just been discovered in recent months, which tells me there could be a LOT MORE coming our way : we shall see as the year moves on.

2012 DA14 was discovered last year and has an orbit between that of Earth and Venus.
PANSTARRS was discovered in 2011.
Lemmon was discovered in January of 2012.

What makes you think these comets originate from the Oort cloud?

Do you know how many comets are discovered each year? Here's a hint.
pds-smallbodies.astro.umd.edu...

They make these discoveries, often on a daily basis, get all excited, but don't seem to realise that there's something going on.

What's going on?

edit on 2/26/2013 by Phage because: (no reason given)

I'm repeating information posted on astronomy sites. So you are telling me that other astronomers, professional or amateur, are liars or misguided?
Maybe 'most' meteors do not come from Mars, but you know very well that a large number of them have been identified as coming from Mars.
As for the discovery of comets, I was talking about recent and the earliest you quoted was 2011. Next you'll be telling me that Halley's comet never happened or is about to.
Mars distance from earth varies and you know this and God knows where you get your figure of 50 million from.. Your 'flat' replies' spell minimal knowledge.
As for the Oort cloud, YOU tell ME why so many astronomers seem to think this 'hypothetical area' contains billions of comets. Why do they say this huge area of space is hypothetical if it's that large?
Finally, on other posts, other readers have produced tables of incoming data, how meteor sightings are increasing, especially since NASA made this info 'classified' in 2009, solely on the basis of saving costs - they say. But the Russians feel we could have protection from cosmic stuff within about 10 years if money is put into it - that's from Pravda by the way, the 'Times' from Russia, a country you might not have heard of.
Since you seem to know it all, I suggest you take up a new hobby.

Phage,

Whilst you are usually spot on for accuracy, I do have to point out that Mars can come as close as 35 million miles to Earth at "perfect" oppositions.

reply to post by mclinking


In Phage's defense, he simply confused miles with kilometers. The closest Mars gets to Earth is about 35 million miles, which is approx 56 million kilometers. www.universetoday.com...

As for the origin of meteorites, only some come from Mars; many other come from asteroids. About 86% of the meteorites that fall on Earth are chondrites. Chondrites are typically about 4.55 billion years old and are thought to represent material from the asteroid belt that never formed into large bodies. Like comets, chondritic asteroids are some of the oldest and most primitive materials in the solar system. Chondrites are often considered to be "the building blocks of the planets". en.wikipedia.org...

Regarding the Oort cloud, it's actually a very good question: why do the astronomers accept its existence despite no observational evidence? I'll ask the astronomers I keep in touch with. But to me it seems logical. All those comets had to form somewhere, and "live" somewhere before being nudged towards the Sun. If they don't come from a cloud on the outer edges of the Solar System, where do they come from? Do stars just conjure them up and fling them towards other stars in a game of ball?

reply to post by mclinking


The Oort Cloud is considered hypothetical because:

1) There has been no direct evidence or observation of it.

Although no confirmed direct observations of the Oort cloud have been made, astronomers believe that it is the source of all long-period and Halley-type[citation needed] comets entering the inner Solar System and many of the centaurs and Jupiter-family comets as well.[6] The outer Oort cloud is only loosely bound to the Solar System, and thus is easily affected by the gravitational pull both of passing stars and of the Milky Way itself. These forces occasionally dislodge comets from their orbits within the cloud and send them towards the inner Solar System.[3] Based on their orbits, most of the short-period comets may come from the scattered disc, but some may still have originated from the Oort cloud.[3][6] Although the Kuiper belt and the scattered disc have been observed and mapped, only four currently known trans-Neptunian objects—90377 Sedna, 2000 CR105, 2006 SQ372, and 2008 KV42—are considered possible members of the inner Oort cloud.[7][8]

Comets can come in two flavors as far as where they originate from. That is determined by observing their orbits.

Comets with short orbital periods originate from closer to the sun such as the Kuiper Belt. Where as long period comets have orbits that carry them well beyond the Kuiper Belt, and are assumed to originate from the hypothetical Oort Cloud.

Indeed it was these long period comets that gave rise to the idea of the Oort Cloud:

In 1932, Estonian astronomer Ernst Öpik postulated that long-period comets originated in an orbiting cloud at the outermost edge of the Solar System.[9] In 1950, the idea was independently revived by Dutch astronomer Jan Hendrik Oort as a means to resolve a paradox:[10] over the course of the Solar System's existence, the orbits of comets are unstable; eventually, dynamics dictate that a comet must either collide with the Sun or a planet, or else be ejected from the Solar System by planetary perturbations. Moreover, their volatile composition means that as they repeatedly approach the Sun, radiation gradually boils the volatiles off until the comet splits or develops an insulating crust that prevents further outgassing. Thus, reasoned Oort, a comet could not have formed while in its current orbit, and must have been held in an outer reservoir for almost all of its existence.

Claiming that a lot of meteorites here on Earth are from Mars is a bit sensationalist:

Of over 61,000 meteorites that have been found on Earth, 114 were identified as martian (as of January 9, 2013)

Source

114 out of 61,000 is only 0.18% ......I would hardly call that a majority.

While it is possible that a large impact from an object on Mars can throw up material that could one day end up landing here on Earth, the odds are not always in the favor of it happening.

Space is huge. Very huge. Any material thrown up and achieving escape velocity from Mars will most likely not have enough velocity to escape the sun's pull. So yes, it could head in ward. But it wouldn't make a straight line towards the sun (or Earth).
Those debris would be in there own orbit. Some could stay in that orbit for millions of years (or longer). Some may enter a orbit that carries them much closer to the sun. They could pass Earth's orbit, but keep in mind the Earth is only 12,742 km wide, but our orbit is 939,477,079 km.....so there is a lot more empty space for those debris to pass through than the Earth is blocking.

Also is the Earth's inclination to the plane of the solar system as compared to Mars.
Earth is 7.115 degrees of inclination and Mars is only 1.8 degrees, so that would make things harder too.

It's still possible.....but it's not a sure thing as you are making it out to be.

Originally posted by eriktheawful
reply to post by mclinking

 

The Oort Cloud is considered hypothetical because:

1) There has been no direct evidence or observation of it.

Although no confirmed direct observations of the Oort cloud have been made, astronomers believe that it is the source of all long-period and Halley-type[citation needed] comets entering the inner Solar System and many of the centaurs and Jupiter-family comets as well.[6] The outer Oort cloud is only loosely bound to the Solar System, and thus is easily affected by the gravitational pull both of passing stars and of the Milky Way itself. These forces occasionally dislodge comets from their orbits within the cloud and send them towards the inner Solar System.[3] Based on their orbits, most of the short-period comets may come from the scattered disc, but some may still have originated from the Oort cloud.[3][6] Although the Kuiper belt and the scattered disc have been observed and mapped, only four currently known trans-Neptunian objects—90377 Sedna, 2000 CR105, 2006 SQ372, and 2008 KV42—are considered possible members of the inner Oort cloud.[7][8]

Comets can come in two flavors as far as where they originate from. That is determined by observing their orbits.

Comets with short orbital periods originate from closer to the sun such as the Kuiper Belt. Where as long period comets have orbits that carry them well beyond the Kuiper Belt, and are assumed to originate from the hypothetical Oort Cloud.

Indeed it was these long period comets that gave rise to the idea of the Oort Cloud:

In 1932, Estonian astronomer Ernst Öpik postulated that long-period comets originated in an orbiting cloud at the outermost edge of the Solar System.[9] In 1950, the idea was independently revived by Dutch astronomer Jan Hendrik Oort as a means to resolve a paradox:[10] over the course of the Solar System's existence, the orbits of comets are unstable; eventually, dynamics dictate that a comet must either collide with the Sun or a planet, or else be ejected from the Solar System by planetary perturbations. Moreover, their volatile composition means that as they repeatedly approach the Sun, radiation gradually boils the volatiles off until the comet splits or develops an insulating crust that prevents further outgassing. Thus, reasoned Oort, a comet could not have formed while in its current orbit, and must have been held in an outer reservoir for almost all of its existence.

Claiming that a lot of meteorites here on Earth are from Mars is a bit sensationalist:

Of over 61,000 meteorites that have been found on Earth, 114 were identified as martian (as of January 9, 2013)

Source

114 out of 61,000 is only 0.18% ......I would hardly call that a majority.

While it is possible that a large impact from an object on Mars can throw up material that could one day end up landing here on Earth, the odds are not always in the favor of it happening.

Space is huge. Very huge. Any material thrown up and achieving escape velocity from Mars will most likely not have enough velocity to escape the sun's pull. So yes, it could head in ward. But it wouldn't make a straight line towards the sun (or Earth).
Those debris would be in there own orbit. Some could stay in that orbit for millions of years (or longer). Some may enter a orbit that carries them much closer to the sun. They could pass Earth's orbit, but keep in mind the Earth is only 12,742 km wide, but our orbit is 939,477,079 km.....so there is a lot more empty space for those debris to pass through than the Earth is blocking.

Also is the Earth's inclination to the plane of the solar system as compared to Mars.
Earth is 7.115 degrees of inclination and Mars is only 1.8 degrees, so that would make things harder too.

It's still possible.....but it's not a sure thing as you are making it out to be.

Thank you very much for this detailed information. I agree I made an assumption about meteorites from Mars, but repeated what another said without checking. Neverless, we cannot say that other material may also come from Mars as not ALL Mars surface materials have been analysed - correct me if I'm wrong on that point.

As regards the Oort cloud, is it true that this area of space has so many comets? I've read some calculations are in the billions. Regardless of whether this Oort cloud exists, these long-term comets come from this area, or so modern science indicates. In other words, 'Oort' is therefore just a name for this huge space.

reply to post by wildespace


If it did happen NASA would get the blame on here for trying to hide evidence of life or previous life on Mars and our usual suspects on here would start more Mars rocks are this threads!

reply to post by mclinking


Meteorite Types are determined through chemical analysis and testing:

86% of those are called chondrites that are minerals that have melted while in free fall. 8% are achondrites which have smaller particles and indicate crustal material that formed in gravity. 5% are just iron, and the 1% are a mix and called "stoney".

The amount of Iridium is also a factor in these meteorites. On rocky planets like Earth and Mars, iridium is very rare because the majority of it was heavy and sank towards the planet's cores. So bed rock flung out into space from a impact will have less iridium than an asteroid which is much smaller and formed in space.

So a maritan meteorite will have characteristics such as low iridium content and achondrites, where as a meteorite that was formed in space will tend to have a much higher iridium content and chondrites.

As for the Oort Cloud: there have been alternate theories other than a Oort cloud, such as a high gravity, dark companion orbiting the sun, in which these long period comets orbit both.
However, supporting evidence for that theory is very low, as long period comets seem to originate in a 360 degree sphereical area, are not following a set path of origination and to date, no high gravity body has been found orbiting our sun.

However, until the Oort cloud is actually observed or detected some how, it will remain a hypothisis, as the scientific method says you can not declare it fact unless you have direct observations or detections that can peer reviewed and repeated by others.