A possible impact of a comet with Mars in 2014

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posted on Feb, 24 2013 @ 01:56 PM
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There is a chance that the comet C/2013 A1 (Siding Spring), discovered in the beginning of 2013, might collide with Mars. At the moment, based on the observation arc of 74 days, the nominal close approach distance between the red planet and the comet might be as little as 0.00073 AU, that is approximately 109,200 km! Distance to Mars' natural satellite Deimos will be smaller by 6000 km, making it 103,000 km. On the 19th October 2014, the comet might reach apparent magnitude of -8...-8.5, as seen from Mars! Perhaps it will be possible to accuire high-resolution images from the Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter.

Since C/2013 A1 is a hyperbolic comet and moves in a retrograde orbit, its velocity with respect to the planet will be very high, approximately 56 km/s. With the current estimate of the absolute magnitude of the nucleus M2 = 10.3, which might indicate the diameter of over 50 km, the energy of impact might reach the equivalent of staggering 2x10¹º megatonnes! This kind of event can leave a crater 500 km across and 2 km deep. Such an event would overshadow even the famous bombardment of Jupiter by the disintegrated comet Shoemaker–Levy 9 in July 1994, which by some estimates was originally 15 m in diameter.

All that is said above is based on the current measurements, and will of course be refined as more data comes in. In any case, even now we can say that the close approach will happen. The current orbit uncertainty allows for a collision scenario, but the possibility of this is small.

Wikipedia article: en.wikipedia.org...
Astroblog: astroblogger.blogspot.co.uk...

JPL ssd.jpl.nasa.gov...
edit on 24-2-2013 by wildespace because: (no reason given)




posted on Feb, 24 2013 @ 02:10 PM
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reply to post by wildespace
 


Well if there any life on mars before it hits there might not be after.

We won't need to send men to mars bit of it will come to us.
So on the upside think of the money we save on rock collecting
mars missions which might upset arken a bit.



Found this video to give everyone a idea how close it comes to mars.
fastforward to 1min to skip the outer solar system.

Star and flag for the info.
edit on 24/2/2013 by skuly because: Arken i relly love your threads but sometimes they are just rocks



posted on Feb, 24 2013 @ 02:49 PM
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Well, I suppose this would do two things. It would save billions in planning Mars trips for the next hundred years or more. Correct me if I'm wrong here, but this would be an ELE for impact, if anything was there to make extinct right? It would make for quite a mess in the air for a long ...LONG...time to come, wouldn't it?

Second though, it would finally give man a LOOK, not just glimpse, of what a catastrophic space object impact is all about. It seems outer planets have taken hits when no one was looking and the Gas Giants have certainly taken large object "impacts", but that tells us nothing when nothing but a flash in the clouds is there to be seen.

This would give literal High Definition footage from approach to impact to ejecta out the atmosphere from satellite views in orbit (If they didn't get hit...Just how far would debris blast upward anyway?).

Perhaps after a 'show' like this, Man would take the threat to Earth seriously. Even a 1:Million chance is still the END of our species, once every million years, so to speak. 1 chance is too many to ignore, now that tech literally sits within reach to do something about mitigating the next one, IMO.



posted on Feb, 24 2013 @ 03:59 PM
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I hope it hits:
- as far as we know, there's no life on Mars, so no harm there
- it would be a great show - seeing something like this from different perspectives and we would learn more
- it would show to a lot of people that we can't know about every object out there and we could be easily surprised



posted on Feb, 24 2013 @ 04:13 PM
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reply to post by wildespace
 


S/F OP

Well this should be interesting to say the least. Depending on what size this comet is (have had a sniff around but not found anything about size) it should be fascinating to see what happens.. Hopefully the comet is not that big, or there may very well be some major consequences..



posted on Feb, 24 2013 @ 04:21 PM
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Well this is interesting, Imagine all the alien artifacts what could be uncovered with the comet impact!. Watch this space......



posted on Feb, 24 2013 @ 06:13 PM
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To see what would happen if this comet did hit Mars go to:

janus.astro.umd.edu...

I input the estimates provided above and this was returned ~~
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
Energy Released: 19 billion MT (MegaTons of TNT)
(Energy needed to Boil Earth's Oceans: 2000 billion MT)

QUAKE!! Magnitude 12.5 (largest recorded Earthquake: 9.5)
Crater Diameter: 659.0 km
Crater Depth: 4.1 km

Collisions this energetic occurred only early in the Solar System's history.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Mars rocks have been found on earth as recently as July 2012 when they fell to earth in the Moroccan desert in a hail of Martian meteorites thought to have been ejected from an asteroid strike. Previous to the 2012 meteor showers that rained down, martian rocks or Tissint as they are called happened in 1815, 1865, 1911 and 1962. These rocks have been found in Antarctica and Sahara are valuable anywhere from $8,500 to $28,350 per ounce. LINK



posted on Feb, 24 2013 @ 08:08 PM
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This is pure insanity in relevance to the potential impact. Im sure many people have questions...heres a couple of mine I hope those more knowledgable could answer:

1) Will this throw enough debris into space to pose meteor dangers to earth?

2) the chances of one of the moons getting hit on Mars?

3) Guess we will see if theres any lava inside mars's surface, im guessing this would cause damage to the crustal plates of Mars (does Mars even have crustal plates that move?)

4) Keep telescopes on Mars and if there is danger of direct hit, you can bet if there is any life left on Mars will be getting the F-off that rock.

5) Lets see if any UFO's decide to intervene! then again they may to assist in causing impact.

6) Could this kick start a geo-engineering chain reaction on Mars that would work towards bringing life back - i.e. heat of impact melting underground ice/water and turning into steam etc etc.



posted on Feb, 24 2013 @ 08:55 PM
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reply to post by Melbourne_Militia
 


I was thinking something similar in regards to creating a habitable planet....but then I realised that it would most likely cause Mars to cool even more...given the dust and debris that will be kicked back up into Mars atmosphere.

Maybe some more experts on the topic could chime in on the possible consequences for Mars from this impact?



posted on Feb, 24 2013 @ 09:26 PM
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Very cool stuff!
Anyone know the name of that tune in the YouTube video?



posted on Feb, 24 2013 @ 09:31 PM
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If this impact were to occur, one good thing about it: we have front row seats.

We have 2 operational rovers on Mars right now and then we have probes in orbit.

The good news is that we can observe the impact in several ways, up close and personal, and see the after effects, but with out it being here on our own planet.

Of course it would suck if it takes out one or both rovers, but you have to admit it would be an event that no astrophysicist would turn down!

That is of course if there is an actual impact. Even if there is not, it will be quite interesting to see it pass so close by Mars.



posted on Feb, 24 2013 @ 10:03 PM
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I wonder if an impact of this type might change the orbit of Mars, just the slightest. This could be a problem because the orbit of Mars is quite elliptical and any deviation could cause it to slingshot producing an unstable orbit for a certain period of time.




posted on Feb, 24 2013 @ 10:07 PM
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Maybe this is Mars being "re-seeded".


Panspermia
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Panspermia (Greek: πανσπερμία from πᾶς/πᾶν (pas/pan) "all" and σπέρμα (sperma) "seed") is the hypothesis that life exists throughout the Universe, distributed by meteoroids, asteroids and planetoids.[1] Panspermia proposes that life forms that can survive the effects of space, such as extremophiles, become trapped in debris that is ejected into space after collisions between planets that harbor life and Small Solar System Bodies (SSSB). Bacteria may travel dormant for an extended amount of time before colliding randomly with other planets or intermingling with protoplanetary disks. If met with ideal conditions on a new planet's surfaces, the bacteria become active and the process of evolution begins. Panspermia is not meant to address how life began, just the method that may cause its sustenance.[2][citation needed]

en.wikipedia.org...



posted on Feb, 25 2013 @ 06:41 AM
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reply to post by wildespace
 


109,200 km is a lot, the recent one that went past Earth was closer and there was no panic.

Basically, it wont hit.



posted on Feb, 25 2013 @ 06:47 AM
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Originally posted by ziplock9000
reply to post by wildespace
 


109,200 km is a lot, the recent one that went past Earth was closer and there was no panic.

Basically, it wont hit.


109,200 km is the nominal distance, and there is a large orbit uncertainty. It's this uncertainty that allows for a small chance of impact.

But I agree, as exciting as this possibility is, in most likelyhood the comet will miss Mars.

However, it's interesting to note that the more observations we get, the closer the nominal close approach distance is moving to Mars.
edit on 25-2-2013 by wildespace because: (no reason given)



posted on Feb, 25 2013 @ 07:02 AM
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Originally posted by ziplock9000
reply to post by wildespace
 


109,200 km is a lot, the recent one that went past Earth was closer and there was no panic.

Basically, it wont hit.


What you are not taking into account is that the asteroid that recently passed us by was only 50m in diameter. This comet is 50KM... 1000 times bigger and that's just it's nucleus. The coma may extend many, many times further and put Mars well within striking distance. If not a direct hit, it would still be a huge event!

To put it into perspective, Hale-Bopp I believe was only slightly larger than this and it's coma extended out to roughly the same diameter as the sun. This would engulf Mars completely. This would mainly be dust and gas so no major impact would occur but alien gases and particles would rain down on Mars and this could have major long term effects depending on what they are composed of.
edit on 25-2-2013 by fiftyfifty because: (no reason given)



posted on Feb, 25 2013 @ 07:03 AM
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Originally posted by ziplock9000
reply to post by wildespace
 


109,200 km is a lot, the recent one that went past Earth was closer and there was no panic.

Basically, it wont hit.


The orbit of this comet was calculated by observing it's path during the period of 74 days. It's not enough to calculate it's orbit, so there's still a big chance that it's orbit will be slightly different. It can fly 200.000 km or 1 km from Mars



posted on Feb, 25 2013 @ 07:24 AM
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Hmm first Jupiter now Mars what comes next in that list? You're standing on it....



posted on Feb, 25 2013 @ 09:32 AM
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Very interesting! Thanks for posting OP




Originally posted by fiftyfifty
What you are not taking into account is that the asteroid that recently passed us by was only 50m in diameter. This comet is 50KM... 1000 times bigger and that's just it's nucleus.


The diameter may be 1000 times DA14's, but in terms of mass, it will be 100s of thousands of times the size of DA14!



Originally posted by fiftyfifty
The coma may extend many, many times further and put Mars well within striking distance. If not a direct hit, it would still be a huge event!


Yes, it should be interesting to see what happens when the coma and possibly the tail encounters Mars.


My first thought is will the Rovers be in the right place to stand a chance of seeing any impact - if there is one, I hope they are!



posted on Feb, 25 2013 @ 10:00 AM
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reply to post by FireballStorm
 





My first thought is will the Rovers be in the right place to stand a chance of seeing any impact - if there is one, I hope they are!


I hope so but I imagine all we would see is a blinding flash and then lights out for good. We would have to send new rovers/ satellites before we could see the result close up!





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