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Washington Post Halloween Crystal Ball Competition Predicting President

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posted on Oct, 30 2004 @ 05:59 PM
Washington Post

Halloween seems an appropriate time to ask 13 political wizards to dust off their Crystal Balls, apply a bit of Windex to their orbs and offer prognostications for the denouement of campaign 2004. Will George W. Bush win a return trip to Pennsylvania Avenue, or will he earn a one-way ticket to his Crawford ranch and be haunted forevermore by the specter of John Kerry sitting in the Oval Office? Will the Democrats give the Republicans a fright in the battle for the Senate and House, or will voters say boo to the Democrats' efforts to regain control?
We asked our seers for six predictions: the popular vote percentages, the electoral college outcome, the composition of the Senate and the House, the gubernatorial breakdown and the margin of victory for Bush or Kerry in Florida. Just in case that didn't produce a winner, we tossed in two tie-breakers: projecting the results in the North Carolina and Colorado Senate races.

The contestants' electoral vote forecast dictated whether we used a red (Republican) or blue (Democratic) button to display their predictions.

The net predictions for the Presidential election is seven red for Bush, six blue for Kerry.

The most unexpected (for some) will be the prediction of prior Crystal Ball Champ Tucker Carlson giving the win to Kerry with 51.5% of the popular vote, 278 electoral votes and a simple Florida majority making the difference.

Is Jon Stewart's Tucker-like voodoo doll working? Or maybe he's just more concerned about being right than partisan.

Tucker Carlson, for those that don't know, is a suspected Libertarian that merely plays a Republican on TV.
He's gone on record saying he will not vote in this election given the choices, though he still defends Bush (or rather attacks Kerry) daily on the debate show Cross Fire.

You can cast your own state-by-state predictions (if you hurry) at - where eternal bragging rights and a home version of the "All About Presidents" game is up for grabs.

posted on Oct, 30 2004 @ 06:04 PM
Whao, Rant this is good, I think I am going to look into my fish tank and predict the next president, Yeahhhhh is coming IS gold fish told me. By the way bu# is not winning florida

Hey thanks for the link, this is a lot of fun.

posted on Oct, 30 2004 @ 06:44 PM

Originally posted by marg6043
By the way bu# is not winning florida

My favorite prediction to that point so far has come from a Republican election official in Orange County (that forget not to look and stay nonpartisan) who's message is being forwarded on both sides of the aisle now (one for alarmism, one for shadenfreude):

Colleen Murphy, a Republican official in Orange County, posted an alarmist message on the party's Web site about the intensity and numbers of Democrats casting early ballots there.

"I want to tell you, it's been a culture shock," she wrote. "If you don't get yourselves out of your routines and your comfort zones and do what is necessary to support the president between now and November 2, I'm afraid we're all in for a little culture shock that will last beyond the next four years."

I guess it is a culture shock to someone that buried their head in Fox News for the last four years to suddenly learn they aren't in the majority.

The Beltway Boys just pretty much called Ohio for Kerry too. That Pennsylvania remains blue is no secret even after 41 campaign rallies from Bush. So now it's Iowa, Michigan and Wisconsin Bush needs in plan B.

Yet the Ostrich crowd still insists Cheney going to Hawaii looking for 4 electoral votes in Plan C is a good sign for them? :shk:

I beg to differ, but we shall see. By the way, his 11pm Hawaiian rally on Halloween is being met by throngs of protestors dressed in scary masks (including Cheney face).

I hate to miss that party.


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