Fireballs, comets and asteroids, oh my!

Here's a new article out about the meteor that exploded over Russia. Scientists believe the rock has been cruising past the earth for thousands of years and this time we finally crossed paths.

Meteor may have been cruising by for thousands of years

reply to post by Rezlooper


Well yes, people like myself would be the exception to the rule, but that is mainly because we put in the observing time. Anyone else could do it if they had the motivation.

So given that I have seen lots of fireballs, none of which (as far as I know) have made the media, consider this...

Even under ideal observing conditions, such as observing far out at sea where there are no obstructions to obscure the view of the sky in any direction, the amount of sky a single person could monitor would be a small fraction of 1% of the total sky area of the world.

Also, although I put in more observing time than most, it's still very little time - perhaps as little as 24-36 hrs per year in an average year.

This means I would have missed the vast majority of fireballs that occur in the world every year (not surprisingly). I am just one observer, but there are others, as well as cameras, but even so, most of the world is ocean or sparely populated/unpopulated, so it's certain that vast quantities of fireballs go totally unnoticed.

We are starting to get better at noticing them as well as reporting them though, thanks to both better/cheaper technology and more people being aware that you can report fireballs - it's a fairly gradual process though.

You said that you yourself had no direct experience of an increase in fireball frequency, but that it seems like it based on the number of reports you had come across. Well, that is purely your personal perception of the topic, which relies on reports reaching you, rather than actual experience of these events yourself.

If you take into account that a website like this one, which has been steadily growing in terms of membership over the years, and how people on here post reports of fireballs from their own region that before (ATS) would not have made mainstream news and therefore you would probably not have heard about them before, it's easy to see how personal perception of the frequency these events can be skewed.

Those of us who have been on ATS for a while know the pattern - there are a few reports of fireballs posted here on ATS, and the same questions are asked every time.

You've been here on ATS less than a year, so it would seem that many more fireballs were being reported, compared to before ATS. Don't you think that could account for your personal perception of the subject?

In my case, I can only say that in my 5+ years here on ATS, only a small fraction of the fireball reports that I come across via my sources are reported here on ATS, and this has changed very little over the years. There were lots of fireballs when I first became interested in the subject 15+ years ago, and there still are now. If we could get a "ticker" here on ATS that constantly updated with the latest fireball reported somewhere in the world, I think most people would be a little shocked! And that is just the tip of the iceberg that we would be seeing.

An estimated 100 tonnes of material from space rains down on the Earth every 24 hrs, and it's been doing that for a long time, despite most being blissfully unaware of it. Most of it is at the smaller end of the scale, thankfully, or it would be much more worrisome.

Also, I'm not sure if you noticed in one of the other recent threads on the subject I posted about the well known (in meteor/fireball observing circles anyway) increase in the frequency of fireballs during February. The reasons for why this time of year has more fireballs are not very clear.

As for any connection with methane, I don't think there is one. More methane in the atmosphere makes it denser, which makes it harder for asteroids to penetrate the atmosphere. Every atmospheric molecule an asteroid slams into during it's passage through the atmosphere slows it down a fraction, and also increases the forces that cause objects to break up at higher altitudes rather than lower altitudes.

Originally posted by Rezlooper
Scientists believe the rock has been cruising past the earth for thousands of years and this time we finally crossed paths.

It's no real surprise. Space is vast, and most asteroids/meteoroids are relatively small/minute. The vast majority of objects that cross Earth's orbit would have been orbiting for 100's if not thousands of years in more or less the same orbit, and "brushing by us" every so often before finally hitting.

If anything these are the "good ones" - the ones we stand a chance of seeing before they hit us in the near future. Much more worrisome is the huge reservoir of asteroids known as the Asteroid Belt, which every so often kicks random rocks towards us. There's much less chance of us spotting these before hand, although technology will soon catch up. The good news is that the more dangerous they are, the easier they are to spot in time.

Just had to pop in and say, if you haven't seen it yet, supposedly, they found another asteriod that will make a close pass. The Idea that something has perturbed the asteroid belt and or the incoming of the 3 comets this year is going to make this year an unforgettalbe one.....for sure.....

This post is not in reference to your theory only in reference to the comment about how frequently one may observe a meteor or a "fireball" as opposed to just a streak across the sky.

I have personally seen countless meteors (streaking across the sky) and quite a few "fireballs". I'm 40 years old. On almost any given night if you look long enough you will see a meteor. I've seen hundreds. I have also seen many "fireballs." Quite often they are green. One bright white fireball was so bright it even cast shadows on the ground (That one was around the late 90's biggest I've ever seen). "Fireballs" are certainly not a once in a lifetime event. Most of mine were seen while driving. I guess to those that never go out at night a "fireball" might be a once in a lifetime event - and that's a shame.

reply to post by Rezlooper

The article ends with this statement Meteors and fireballs are very common, and fall even during the day No they aren't. Meteors are common, fireballs are not. I wish we could do polls on ATS. I'd ask how many of us have actually seen a fireball, and then if you have, how many times. I'd bet there'd be a lot who haven't and then of those who have, it's very minimal. I have yet to see one that was anything more than a brilliant meteor.

Sorry can I ask how much time you spend observing the whole sky world wide all at once?

Can you even do that?

You must to be able to make such comment about how common fireballs are.

reply to post by InhaleExhale

Originally posted by FireballStorm

Originally posted by Rezlooper
Meteors are common, fireballs are not.

I'd say fireballs are common and meteors are even more common.

Originally posted by Rezlooper
I wish we could do polls on ATS. I'd ask how many of us have actually seen a fireball, and then if you have, how many times.

We can still do a poll - I'll start you off

This is just an estimate mind you...

Meteors: 11,000+
Fireballs: 500
Bolides: 3-4

Note: I've been observing meteor showers for 15+ years, and most meteors/fireballs I've seen occurred during either the 1998 Leonid fireball "storm" and the 2001 Leonid storm.

Take away these two events, and my stats look something like this:

Meteors: 2-3000
Fireballs: 40-50
Bolides: 1

Originally posted by Rezlooper
I'd bet there'd be a lot who haven't and then of those who have, it's very minimal.

For most people who don't generally spend much time observing the sky you'd probably be right IMO, but people who spend time observing are almost certain to have seen at least a fireball or two, and those who like me regularly observe specifically for meteors are likely to have seen many more.

Don't forget, there is a small army of amateur astronomers/meteor observers out there, many of whom have been observing the sky for decades, as well as those (both organizations and individuals) who point cameras up at the sky to monitor what is going on up there. If there was anything *that* obviously significant going on up there, these people and organizations would be the first to pick it up (followed by ATS if I'm on the ball

).

It seems to me that thanks to increasing media coverage more people are starting to realize that it isn't all that hard to see meteors and fireballs, and this is something I've been trying to explain to people (with mixed success) on ATS since I first became a member in 2007. It's really only when large fireballs occur that people start paying attention in my experience.

Thank you Sir/Madam,

what is so hard to understand if you don't witness it means that you didn't witness it not that it didn't or its not happening.

Keep your eyes to the skies and chances are you will see.

Originally posted by Rezlooper
reply to post by InhaleExhale

 

Oh my,

Are they all the events or just the reported ones?

Does it not say in the image you supplied, whats the point of supplying a graph showing an increase in reported fireballs when the questions asked are about the actual amount not the reported amount.

I attach below something which happened a long time ago. However, what I'd like to know is what enables some meteors, asteroids to get through our atmospheres and make impact? Are there times in our history that make us more vulnerable to impacts? Is our magnetic field weakening, if indeed it is relevant?

.sunnyspells.wordpress.com...

Question,

Has any agency such as NASA or there about attempted to observe every inch of our surrounding atmosphere to get an actual number of incoming rocks/junk over a certain period of time to be able to get some numbers to work with to make some type of estimates?

Originally posted by InhaleExhale
Question,
Has any agency such as NASA or there about attempted to observe every inch of our surrounding atmosphere to get an actual number of incoming rocks/junk over a certain period of time to be able to get some numbers to work with to make some type of estimates?

www.interestingthings.net...
This quote is taken from the above LINK.

Mapping out the orbits of near-Earth asteroids is a big job. Astronomers think 1 million or more such space rocks are out there, and just 9,700 have been identified to date.

Hopefully this is an answer to your question.

@ Rezlooper - keep up the excellent work my freind!

Originally posted by mclinking
However, what I'd like to know is what enables some meteors, asteroids to get through our atmospheres and make impact? Are there times in our history that make us more vulnerable to impacts? Is our magnetic field weakening, if indeed it is relevant?

It's our atmosphere that protects us from most impacts, and our magnetic field stops our atmosphere from being eroded away by the solar wind. No, our magnetic field is not weakening significantly.

Asteroids and occasionally large meteoroids make it through our atmosphere mainly because they are large enough or hard enough (iron-nickel meteoroids). Other factors play a part too - for example angle of entry, which if too high usually means the object breaks up high in the atmosphere. More gentle angles of entry don't put so much stress on an object, so they stand a better chance of making it to the ground with significant cosmic velocity remaining, if they are large enough and/or dense enough. Speed is a factor too - fast objects are not likely to make it through, unless they are extremely large or dense and fairly large.

Most of the objects that hit our atmosphere are already quite fragile, the main exception being iron-nickel asteroids/meteoroids.

Originally posted by HumAnnunaki

Originally posted by InhaleExhale
Question,
Has any agency such as NASA or there about attempted to observe every inch of our surrounding atmosphere to get an actual number of incoming rocks/junk over a certain period of time to be able to get some numbers to work with to make some type of estimates?

www.interestingthings.net...
This quote is taken from the above LINK.

Mapping out the orbits of near-Earth asteroids is a big job. Astronomers think 1 million or more such space rocks are out there, and just 9,700 have been identified to date.

Hopefully this is an answer to your question.

That just gives us an idea what is out there, not what is hitting us.

For an idea of what is hitting us, we use meteor tracking networks. Some have existed for decades, but in the last decade or so many more have sprung up, and the trend continues.

Originally posted by HumAnnunaki

Originally posted by InhaleExhale
Question,
Has any agency such as NASA or there about attempted to observe every inch of our surrounding atmosphere to get an actual number of incoming rocks/junk over a certain period of time to be able to get some numbers to work with to make some type of estimates?

www.interestingthings.net...
This quote is taken from the above LINK.

Mapping out the orbits of near-Earth asteroids is a big job. Astronomers think 1 million or more such space rocks are out there, and just 9,700 have been identified to date.

Hopefully this is an answer to your question.

@ Rezlooper - keep up the excellent work my freind!

Not really,

I was asking about rocks/junk that enter our atmosphere, the actual number of things burning up or reaching us and not what gets reported, whats reported is just that and not the actual number, this was my question,

Is there some type of omnipresent technology that can observe everything that enters our atmosphere? there are a lot of eyes up there but can they some how link up these satellites to view to give us a complete view of what comes in over a period of time. For instance could a grid be set up around our planet with satellites that would observe a million square km or whatever and view the whole edge of our atmosphere to see the actual number of objects entering.

This would be the only way to get a definitive number of objects that enter and either burn up in our atmosphere or reach the ground is it not?

Originally posted by FireballStorm

Originally posted by HumAnnunaki

Originally posted by InhaleExhale
Question,
Has any agency such as NASA or there about attempted to observe every inch of our surrounding atmosphere to get an actual number of incoming rocks/junk over a certain period of time to be able to get some numbers to work with to make some type of estimates?

www.interestingthings.net...
This quote is taken from the above LINK.

Mapping out the orbits of near-Earth asteroids is a big job. Astronomers think 1 million or more such space rocks are out there, and just 9,700 have been identified to date.

Hopefully this is an answer to your question.

That just gives us an idea what is out there, not what is hitting us.

For an idea of what is hitting us, we use meteor tracking networks. Some have existed for decades, but in the last decade or so many more have sprung up, and the trend continues.

for the link.

long time this has been in place, many more stations needed to either calm some nerves here ( meaning Claims made on ATS about the increase) or justify these claims.

reply to post by InhaleExhale


There actually is a way to monitor for larger fireballs that explode in our atmosphere on a world-wide basis. The trouble is that if this data was made available, it could potentially compromise our ability to monitor for illegal nuclear testing, since it could give away the "detection threshold", so our enemies would know what they might be able to get away with.

Originally posted by FireballStorm

Originally posted by mclinking
However, what I'd like to know is what enables some meteors, asteroids to get through our atmospheres and make impact? Are there times in our history that make us more vulnerable to impacts? Is our magnetic field weakening, if indeed it is relevant?

It's our atmosphere that protects us from most impacts, and our magnetic field stops our atmosphere from being eroded away by the solar wind. No, our magnetic field is not weakening significantly.

Asteroids and occasionally large meteoroids make it through our atmosphere mainly because they are large enough or hard enough (iron-nickel meteoroids). Other factors play a part too - for example angle of entry, which if too high usually means the object breaks up high in the atmosphere. More gentle angles of entry don't put so much stress on an object, so they stand a better chance of making it to the ground with significant cosmic velocity remaining, if they are large enough and/or dense enough. Speed is a factor too - fast objects are not likely to make it through, unless they are extremely large or dense and fairly large.

Most of the objects that hit our atmosphere are already quite fragile, the main exception being iron-nickel asteroids/meteoroids.

With all due respect, Earth's magnetic field IS weakening and this attached article mentions us being more prone to meteor and asteroid impacts. In addition, just ask the question on the Web - "Is the earth's magnetic field weakening?", ALL the answers are 'yes'. In addition to making us live in a dodgy place, scientists warn also of a 'pole reversal', something these experts say doesn't happen too often, i.e. every million years, which doesn't explain why there are ancient Egyptian reliefs showing the sun rising in the WEST. Anyway, here's the link :

www.nbcnews.com...

Check out this awesome pic taken Friday night by a Canadian photographer of a green fireball streaking then exploding through the northern lights.

Source

Originally posted by mclinking
With all due respect, Earth's magnetic field IS weakening and this attached article mentions us being more prone to meteor and asteroid impacts. In addition, just ask the question on the Web - "Is the earth's magnetic field weakening?", ALL the answers are 'yes'. In addition to making us live in a dodgy place, scientists warn also of a 'pole reversal', something these experts say doesn't happen too often, i.e. every million years, which doesn't explain why there are ancient Egyptian reliefs showing the sun rising in the WEST. Anyway, here's the link :

www.nbcnews.com...

Well yes, the magnetic field is weakening in the run-up to a pole-shift it seems. Perhaps what I should have said was that it's unlikely to lead to a significant loss of our atmosphere, and hence large meteoroids/asteroids penetrating more deeply into the atmosphere. It takes a very long time for the atmosphere to be stripped away by any significant amount.

Look at Mars for example - It's smaller than Earth so it had much less atmosphere, and there is virtually no magnetic field, yet it still has an atmosphere, albeit a thin one.

reply to post by Rezlooper


Great pic. Hadn't come across it before, although I have seen similar before, but it's always nice to see one as nice as this. Thanks for posting Rez