The Rise of the Robots and a revolution in social thinking

This is something I wanted to write long ago but frankly I didn't see the point since people love illusions. We hear so much in recent years from politicians from all over the world about "job creation". And so many people are patiently waiting for that bright new future to come... I am often fascinated how people can be so hypnotized. Less and less people use critical thinking that it's a shame. But let's get back to the point. There will be less and less jobs in the future for one simple reason: technological advancement. As technology advances there will be less need for human labor. Now that would be great news if we weren't living in this world where if there is no work there is no pay, if there is no pay there is no food and shelter. Pretty soon we as a humanity will have to face one tough (or simple) choice: either we are going to dramatically change our society and our value system or 90% of us will die off...
Anyway, here is an article that motivated me to start this thread. I think that this is one of the biggest problems in this world and nobody talks about it! Which is amazing! I urge you to think just a little bit about this. I'm sure that most of you will realize what challenge lies in front of us.

www.project-syndicate.org...

It's a completely natural process that all sentient life forms go through, if their societies survive long enough to see it play out. It almost invariably goes:

Agricultural Revolution
Industrial Revolution
Technological Revolution
Digital Revolution
Mecha Revolution

These all always greatly overlap, and a key element of the digital revolution is a cultural shift towards socialism - hinging on the sharing of information and technology. If capitalism continues to reign supreme well into the mecha revolution, we get things like AI, I-Robot, and aaah...Terminator.

It's the difference between "Buy the latest robot, only $9,999!" and an open-source robot knocking on your door and saying "Hello! I'm Open-Source Model 3fz, H-Class. I can make you a copy of myself in 3.2 hours...would you like to see my specs and materials lists?"

You can buy an industrial robot today for $22,000 that can learn any mechanical action in a few minutes taught by anyone on the factory floor. It costs about $3.50 an hour to run (including amortization of the robot itself), needs no benefits, no health insurance, sick leave, or vacation. The manufacturing jobs that we sent overseas to China and Malaysia will be coming back because our robots can do it cheaper than foreign cheap labor. That's going to result in the layoff of a lot of.....

Chinese, and the jobs won't be coming back here either, unless you learn robotics.

Hint.

Interesting subject.

That subject really strike home, when I saw (few weeks ago) a 60-minutes report on the future of robotics.

The main point of that reportage was that we reach the threshold where any advance in robotics result in a net diminution of the global workforce. Previously one could argue that the cut in workers was compensated by a programmer of the robot, therefore no lost of jobs, but more efficiency, more production. Today it is less workforce (total) and far more production output.

As you probably know Google certify cars driven by robots (not a robot as such, a software, but no humans) it is now authorized (in some states) to drive itself (insurance go along with that). So soon, simple delivery jobs (the shuttle car bringing auto parts to your garage (maybe your pizza delivery) even a taxi, could be replace by a robot cars).

There are even software that take raw data in business or sport and cook a resume article (something that you might think, take some «analysis») and you will be hard pressed to decide if it was written by a human or a machine.

So if in 20 to 30 years from now, 30 to 40 % of the jobs are displace to robot, how will society work? Don't forget we will soon reach the point were robots will repaired themselves, maybe even design the next generation, again always requiring less people to make the whole thing work.

1- Two class of peoples (one with skill, jobs, living in gated community, arms to the teeth), the other one in slum, unemployed living from social security (I assume this will quickly be phased-out, so living in poverty).
2- Peoples will now be free to invent the future ideas (will that generate enough work for the displaced people?).

Originally posted by schuyler
You can buy an industrial robot today for $22,000 that can learn any mechanical action in a few minutes taught by anyone on the factory floor. It costs about $3.50 an hour to run (including amortization of the robot itself), needs no benefits, no health insurance, sick leave, or vacation. The manufacturing jobs that we sent overseas to China and Malaysia will be coming back because our robots can do it cheaper than foreign cheap labor. That's going to result in the layoff of a lot of.....

Chinese, and the jobs won't be coming back here either, unless you learn robotics.

Hint.

edit on 2/19/2013 by schuyler because: (no reason given)

Asia leads the world in industrial robotic purchasing.

That means that they are getting their robotics into action faster then us.

Just saying...

Asia leads the world in industrial robotic purchasing.

That means that they are getting their robotics into action faster then us.

Just saying...

In fact what we just quote is more or less saying the opposite of what you just mentioned.

By having cheap and powerful robot (like that $22K Baxter robot), you can compete (in the USA or Europe) with work done overseas (plus you save on shipping cost).

Philishave brought back razor factory from China to Europe (due to robot usage).

There is incentive to send work to low wage countries if your work is labour intensive, there are no point to sending it to low wage countries equipped with robots, if you can have the same robots back home and save on the transport.

Originally posted by PopeyeFAFL
In fact what we just quote is more or less saying the opposite of what you just mentioned.

By having cheap and powerful robot (like that $22K Baxter robot), you can compete (in the USA or Europe) with work done overseas (plus you save on shipping cost).

Philishave brought back razor factory from China to Europe (due to robot usage).

There is incentive to send work to low wage countries if your work is labour intensive, there are no point to sending it to low wage countries equipped with robots, if you can have the same robots back home and save on the transport.

You are assuming that wages are the only reason that jobs were moved over seas.

That assumption would be very wrong.

reply to post by alomaha


Well..., if the factory owned the robot, then that is indeed a problem. Now on the other hand, if I, or we all owed the robot(s) and leased them to the factory then that would be an interesting idea.

Originally posted by StarsInDust
reply to post by alomaha

 

Well..., if the factory owned the robot, then that is indeed a problem. Now on the other hand, if I, or we all owed the robot(s) and leased them to the factory then that would be an interesting idea.

Sit tight.

Personal manufacturing will be available relatively soon.

No factories, no large companies for that matter. You buy plans for things you need (pay for the patent and copyright usage) and make as many of what you need as you want.

Originally posted by peck420

You are assuming that wages are the only reason that jobs were moved over seas.

That assumption would be very wrong.

When Ford, VW, Mercedes or anyone else built a car in Mexico for the US market, it is not because they got a better workforce (perhaps an unionized workforce), the main reason (perhaps the only reason) is to produce it at a lower cost. SO YES, WAGES IS THE REASON.

None of that massive outsourcing that occurs in the 80's, 90's until today from USA and Europe to China or India would have taken place if it was not for lower wages in those countries.

Originally posted by peck420
Sit tight.

Personal manufacturing will be available relatively soon.

No factories, no large companies for that matter. You buy plans for things you need (pay for the patent and copyright usage) and make as many of what you need as you want.

Yes, you are right Rapid prototyping (also called 3D printing) is about to be affordable.

Seeing what happens in the movie/music illegal copying, I'm afraid people will copy and pirate any piece of hardware they could.

There will be lot of bogus parts (leading to some dangerous situation, like in the aircraft industry).

Originally posted by PopeyeFAFL

Originally posted by peck420

You are assuming that wages are the only reason that jobs were moved over seas.

That assumption would be very wrong.

When Ford, VW, Mercedes or anyone else built a car in Mexico for the US market, it is not because they got a better workforce (perhaps an unionized workforce), the main reason (perhaps the only reason) is to produce it at a lower cost. SO YES, WAGES IS THE REASON.

None of that massive outsourcing that occurs in the 80's, 90's until today from USA and Europe to China or India would have taken place if it was not for lower wages in those countries.

I totally agree. The main reason is always cutting down on expenses.