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Loose Theory- Could This Be the Next Rough Location of a Massive Quake In Japan?

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posted on Feb, 19 2013 @ 09:39 AM
So Japan just had another 5.6 today close to the southern zone, and there has been a bit of increased seismic activity closer Tokyo in the last month or two:

I started looking into some historical seismicity, kind of in follow up to the situation there, and after having spent so much time on it in 2011/2012. I came across a USGS map that proved to be kind of interesting, because I found a spot along the southern zone that appears to be locked. In other words, there hasn't been a big quake there in recorded history, at all. Here's a crop I did from that map, and the black arrow I drew in points towards this "hole" of no major activity:

Now that is only through 2007, but still, I don't believe anything major happened there during the aftershock activity after the 9+. And even with a recent historical seismicity since 1990, you can still see a small hole there:
Historical Seismicity since 1990

So while there have been some smaller ones close, that little hole there could be the locked point.
These latest line of quakes running north to south seem to be occurring along a depth transition boundary.

So that region, for all anyone knows could have some pretty serious stress accumulated over thousands of years.

I went back and pulled the last 30 days of quake activity at USGS, and that looks like this:

And what is kind of interesting (at least to me), is there seems to be two lines of recent quakes, that appear to be converging on that very area! I have prepped a pic:

The black arrow is pointing to the zone, and also represents the general direction of pressure from the pacific plate- which is getting subducted. The red lines indicate the general trending lines of quakes, showing where they converge- and the blue star to me represents where I feel there could possibly be another whopper. Or in that general area. Maybe not today or tomorrow, but if we keep getting bigger quakes from this point in the high 5's or 6's or so in that area- sorry but gonna have to sound the alarm again.

With all the stress redistribution that occurred from the 9+, and continuing pressure from the pacific plate, that spot has got to be ripe to give way sometime in the future. And who knows when. And even though that southern zone it is supposedly a transform boundary, and not a subduction zone, it didn't save Tokyo back in 1923- when a big quake nearly leveled the place, and sent a tsunami into Tokyo bay. And that one is still a mystery to me, because tsunamis are usually generated from thrust type, subduction zone quakes.

But anyway, just some food for thought. In the case of Santa Cruz Islands, I spotted trouble before the 8.0 because of foreshock activity that was abnormal.

In this case, it may be because of noticing patterns and historical lack of big seismicity in that blue star area. But I am not liking the way those lines seem to be converging. Those quakes on those lines all represent stress releases adjacent to that locked area, that seems to be holding out. And so there is even MORE stress being put on this area now.

The question is, how much longer can it hold out? The unreleased stress there has got to be enormous by now!
edit on Tue Feb 19th 2013 by TrueAmerican because: (no reason given)

posted on Feb, 19 2013 @ 09:55 AM
reply to post by TrueAmerican

Man......These poor people in Japan.....When will the quakes stop over there?

Let's hope there isn't anymore nuclear plants anywhere nearby.....Not like the first one didn't cause enough damage, death, contamination......

Good post TA.....You know your $hit about quakes!

posted on Feb, 19 2013 @ 12:05 PM
For the people of Japan, I hope your wrong. Some interesting data you have collected, sure looks like you may have something. Any nuclear plants in the area?

posted on Feb, 19 2013 @ 12:18 PM
Great thread, thanks for the graphics! It definitely does look like a pattern. Seems it's not an if, but when is it going to happen.

posted on Feb, 19 2013 @ 12:21 PM
I remember This thread you started a while back.

I don't have time right now to look over the thread, but I remember there was alot of interesting information in that thread.

Hope that helps with info.
edit on 19-2-2013 by crappiekat because: sp

posted on Feb, 19 2013 @ 04:06 PM
reply to post by crappiekat

Well so far in Japan, the seismic habits of earth seem to elude everyone. The way the aftershocks spread out in such a huge way after the 9+, I was anticipating another big quake on the southern zone, and scientists were also concerned. But so far it hasn't happened. It may not. For a long time. Thanks for bringing up that thread though. And I also had the Final Warning to Tokyo thread after that, too- which hasn't materialized yet. Stress redistributions can take years to fully propagate though. So that is something to keep in mind.

posted on Feb, 20 2013 @ 10:52 AM
reply to post by TrueAmerican

I just spent a huge chunk of time going thru that thread. Lots of good information there.

I also found the other thread Here. I have not had a chance to look at this one yet. But I remember there was some great stuff on that thread too.

I have a question about the station's you are watching. Are they still IU.MAJO and JP.JHJ2. I'm just starting to learn how to use GEE. It's really pretty cool.

Back on topic. Are you still seeing something that is different, or just the fact that their have been these small movements?

Had to go back and read your posts. Ok, I see where your going. (I think)

edit on 20-2-2013 by crappiekat because: to add

Also wanted to add. This thread is helping me understand to to use GEE. GEE Help
edit on 20-2-2013 by crappiekat because: to add

posted on Jan, 17 2014 @ 07:43 AM
Seismicity seems to be increasing around Tokyo, as stress redistributions approach the southern zone. Here is the last thirty days of quakes:

Interestingly, they still seem to be pointing at the locked point on the southern zone that hasn't had a quake on the record books ever, and is the subject of this thread:

This area is obviously ripe for a stress release. If there's going to be bigger quake near Tokyo any time soon, I am thinking this is where it could be. And it is a very dangerous place, with the potential of unleashing another bad tsunami. Except this time it would head straight up Tokyo Bay. Not good.

posted on Jan, 17 2014 @ 11:44 PM
You may be right, TA. Another quake in the last hour--Mag 5.8. It's a bit south of your target, but along the Izu Trench, nonetheless.

After watching the documentary on the Nankai Trough (south & west of your target); that's the area where my attention was focused for a future big quake. [If you missed it, you can find it here. Lot's of good info.]

A major quake along either of those stretches will be bad news.
edit on 1/17/2014 by Olivine because: (no reason given)

posted on Jan, 17 2014 @ 11:52 PM
reply to post by Olivine

Yeah, saw it come in. The station at Chichijima has been down for quite a while. If it had been up, it would have been nailed pretty hard with that 5.8. Saw it first at JP.JHJ2, then at IU.MAJO.

But what is getting me is the shallow depth of 9 to 10 km in that spot. Seems like it should have been much deeper relative to where it occurred, west of the subduction zone. Makes me want to pull a depth profile of historic seismicity to see.

posted on Jan, 17 2014 @ 11:59 PM
reply to post by TrueAmerican

Hold up, I'll link the depth profiles for you. I was just looking at them, lol. brb..

This link has all of the subduction profiles in different formats.
Izu-Bonin Subduction depth profile
Ryukyu Slab depth profile (Nankai Trough)

This area is a mess. You've go the Pacific plate diving steeply under the Phillipine plate, and the Phillipine plate going under the Eurasian plate at a very shallow angle.
edit on 1/18/2014 by Olivine because: (no reason given)

edit on 1/18/2014 by Olivine because: add a link

The depth looks consistent with the slab models and historic seismicity to my eye.

I just grabbed a pic of all the Mag 5.5+ in the region over the past 40 years, using the IEB.


Here is the same data, looking at it from the south (and underground :roll

edit on 1/18/2014 by Olivine because: add pics

posted on Jan, 18 2014 @ 12:27 AM
reply to post by Olivine

ok, cool. Appreciate that. It appears the slab interface is shallow enough at those coordinates of the epicenter plotted on the subduction profile to make this shallow quake more of a typical depth, rather than anything abnormal...I think. I was thinking at first glance it was further west than it is. But who knows.

One thing I can say for certain though is here in the last days things are fidgeting again around Japan. And particularly at JHJ2. I can see it on the seismos. I don't like it when Japan "fidgets."

posted on Jan, 18 2014 @ 12:59 PM
Oli, you get a cookie if you can find that quake, now USGS revised to a 5.4 at 14km depth, anywhere on JMA's site. Bizarre. I can't find it. They have another 5.0 (JMA Mag) way west and south of there. But I don't see this one at all. Not at least as of this writing.

posted on Jan, 18 2014 @ 01:28 PM
reply to post by TrueAmerican

Hmmm, curious.

I think I remember Muzzy commenting that it takes a while for the Japan info to fill in completely, but it isn't listed on this list.

No cookie for me.

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