Was the near miss DA14 Asteroid related to the Russian Metoer

NASA et al has been quick to calm fears saying that they were unrealted and just coincidence, but I would be interested in opinions on the following.

First off...Asteroid..Rock in space...Meteor..rock entering our atomosphere...Meteorite...Space rock that has hit the earth/on the ground.

This is what worries me...

NASA et al has been quick to tell everybody that the Meteor in Russia was unrealted to the Asteroid...which initially made sense to me from a scientific perspective...coincidence.

THEN...I heard a Physicist on Science Friday on NPR propose a possibility that no one else was mentioning...

The asteroid that passed close to the earth "DA14"...It is on an orbit or cycle...and each time it passes near a planet like the earth, tidal forces/gravity can pull chunks of the asteroid off or even break it into pieces.

The Metoer in Russia...and the metoers seen in CA, FL and Cuba...could all be chunks of DA14 that were broken off/pulled free the last time the Metoer passed the earth and they trail beside it/around it like a cloud.

What this MEANS is that while we might track huge Metoers and be able to say...hey that won't hit us...that metoer might have a shower of still huge smaller metoers following it that can rain down on the earth....and we need to start thinking abut THAT.....what if NEXT TIME the Russian Metoerite was not 1...but a shower of 20 os similair size? 100? hitting more populated areas than Siberia???? We don't need a single large metoerite to wreak havok on the earth...A dozen Siberian Meteors in more populated regions would do.

The energy released by the Siberian Meteor has been estimated to be in the Hundreds of Kilotons.

As far as DA14...the next time it passes us is 2014...but scientists think it will be much farther away in that pass...So even if it had a cloud following it, it would likely be out of range of the earth.

BUT...a meteor named "Apophis" will pass near the earth in April of 2029...more or less the same distance as DA14, but still miss us...BUT my question is...are we able to detect if that meteorite has a small cloud of still deadly meteorites that might be accompanying it? Broken loose over millions of years each time it passed the earth and following it like a cloud...that could rain down...multiple events like the one in Siberia?

I am not the doomsday sort, but that question needs to be asked and researched IMO....before 2029 comes around. Because if that Siberian meteor had hit a major city...or if 20 of those meteorites had struck the earth instead on one...it would be an issue.

Either way the Scientists who rushed to calm the public saying the Russian meteorite was definitely not related to DA14?...I think they could have been wrong...and I am more convinced as reports come in of as over-sized or dramatic meteorites being sighted across the globe.

There was a trail/cloud of smaller meteors following DA14 in my strong opinion...and we need to account for those when tracking large metoerites that pass near the earth.

Siberian kind of throws the topic off maybe u can change your title from Siberian to Russian to be more on point? If you haven't already.

I've suggested similar in a thread I started days ago. I suggested the Japan meteor/fireball sighted and videotaped may be related to the DA14 asteroid... since it happened on the same exact day as DA14 flyby (Feb 15 for us, Feb 16 for them since they're a day ahead in Gae's rotation/wobble)

One of the last response in that thread I think is from some well respected ATSer, Phage, whose apparently the whiz around here, well he said something like incoming meteors arent uncommon, we get around 8 a day. My whole point was why a bunch of big ones all around the same time?

Anyways I have yet to see a visualization from any scientist of theoretical asteroid cluster nor a definitive estimate of the Russian meteor, nor an analysis of what it was even made off. How strange it is something so big and professional divers go looking for it and not even a trace of its chemical in the water is found? What are they hiding. Plus NASA *already* decided not related, without even tangible data on what fell. What does that tell you?

Originally posted by Indigo5
The asteroid that passed close to the earth "DA14"...It is on an orbit or cycle...and each time it passes near a planet like the earth, tidal forces/gravity can pull chunks of the asteroid off or even break it into pieces.

There's no doubt this can happen, after Jupiter's gravity pulled apart a rubble pile to form shoemaker-levy-9 which impacted Jupiter in over 20 pieces in 1994, however, all the pieces were traveling in the same general direction.

The two objects of which you speak from Sunday were coming from opposite directions, so it doesn't seem likely they could have been parts of the same object.

Coincidences sometimes do happen.

reply to post by Arbitrageur


As I understand it an Asteroids trajectory and direction can be altered by earths gravitational field and gyroscopic effects of earths spin when it enters the atomosphere?? Could be wrong, but a small enough asteroid does not neccessarily enter the earths atomospher on the same trajectory that it was on before nearing the earth? Gravity, earths spin, Magentic forces??? It would be kind of like predicting the path to landing of a small ball thrown in an arc into a spinning washing machine? Demanding that both the asteroid that passed the earth and the meteorite that entered the atomosphere and struck earth maintain the same path seems to discount, gravity, atomosphere , friction, magnetic forces etc?? Could be wrong...but given the other sightings in NA...Cuba, CA, FL of reasonably sized meteorites around the same time...I still think it is possible we are talking about fragemnts.

This was covered in pretty good detail in this thread

Short answer: No, they were 16 hours apart and on completely different paths.

This was one posters argument but it was stated that the speed was already greater than escape velocity so it would be impossible for these two events to be related.

reply to post by UberL33t


OK...heck of a coincidence...I heard one Yale Physicist...who still believes it is coincidence...say the odss of these two events happening at the same time was roughly 1 in 100,000,000.

Seeing as the ruskies have recovered fragments...and the Cubans said they are searching..Do we have any idea of the composition of DA14? Where we could exclude it for sure? If the Cuban Meteorite and the Russian one matched, that would seem cause for a rethinking, but they haven't recovered anything in Cuba yet as far as I am aware.

reply to post by Indigo5

I heard one Yale Physicist

Which Yale physicist?

There are 10s of fireballs occurring on Earth every day. That pretty means there is 100% probability of there being at least one on the same day as the close approach of DA14.

Originally posted by Phage
reply to post by Indigo5

 

I heard one Yale Physicist

Which Yale physicist?

There are 10s of fireballs occurring on Earth every day. That pretty means there is 100% probability of there being at least one on the same day as the close approach of DA14.

edit on 2/18/2013 by Phage because: (no reason given)

First, the size of the meteor that impacted Russia makes it distinct from the average 'shooting star"...if you have seen the footage of the shock wave, ya know what I am talking about.

See here

Meg Urry is the Israel Munson professor of physics and astronomy and chairwoman of the department of physics at Yale University, where she is the director of the Yale Center for Astronomy and Astrophysics.

.....

The meteor that fell Friday near Chelyabinsk, Russia, was pretty big, maybe 50 feet across

....

NASA scientists estimate that meteors as large as Friday's might hit the Earth every decade or two

..........

The close fly-by of an asteroid like DA14, like the Tunguska meteor, is a once-in-1,000-years event.

......

Two rare events happening at approximately the same time is much more unlikely. Here is how to think of it mathematically: If the events are not associated, the probability of this coincidence comes from multiplying the individual probabilities.

.....

The answer is that we need to rethink the probability calculation. If asteroids as big as DA14 pass close to Earth once every decade or two, and meteors as large as the Chelyabinsk one impact once every 100 years (a similar meteor having caused the Tunguska event in 1908), the chance of both events happening on any one day are indeed very small: 1 in 3,650 days times 1 in 36,500 days, or about 1 in 100 million -- not odds you would bet against

She then goes on to account for the age of the earth etc..

www.cnn.com...

reply to post by Indigo5

Thanks for the link. Now I understand the context.

Yes, the meteor in Russia was extraordinary. No doubt. But why is that relevant? Do you think the chances of a large meteor being associated with the asteroid are greater than the chances of a smaller one?

Did you notice this sentence in your quote?

If the events are not associated, the probability of this coincidence comes from multiplying the individual probabilities.

So, a probability can be calculated but it doesn't really mean anything because there is no association between them.

It's like calculating the probability of two people getting a straight flush on the same day. It's not very likely to happen but that doesn't mean it can't and it certainly doesn't mean there was any connection between the two people if it did happen.

The physics professor also says this:

First of all, in the time between the two events, the Earth moved roughly 300,000 miles, meaning the asteroid and the meteor were in completely different places. Moreover, they traveled in completely different directions, so they couldn't have been associated.

www.cnn.com...

reply to post by Phage


I read the entire link I provided and after further data points...speed of the earth and the amount it moved between events etc. I am willing to concede that the probability that the Asteroid DA14 and the meteorite that struck Russia are the same material-asteroid-fragment is magnitudes more unlikely than the two events occuring near the same time. Otherwise, sure...the are likely not the same object....BUT

I guess my larger point and one that concerns me...If the Russian Meteorite had struck a more densly popuylated area in a more direct manner?...If it was composed of primarily metalic substance rather than rocky material that explodes in the atomosphere?...If a "shower" of like sized objects struck the earth?

Are we accounting for that risk/scenario? Or are we only tracking large objects? What is the probability/possibility that the object scheduled to pass at a similair distance in 2029 might have accompanying fragments that would strike the earth? What is the probability that those fragments would be of sufficient number and size to pose a threat and is that probability strong enough to warrant any measure of preparation?

Again I am not a dommsdayer and don't engage in apocalyptic fantasy, but on the other hand, I do believe those questions are worth examining closely.

As I understand it the USA dropped a 15 Kiloton Nuclear bomb in Hiroshima during WW2...the meteorite that exploded above Russia was equivelant to a 500 Kiloton bomb...but exploded around 30-50KM above the earths surface.
www.ibtimes.co.uk...

Lots of questions...I know...but Composition and its relation to how near the surface an onject explodes or if impact is made. Kiloton equivelancies...Liklihood of hitting populated areas etc. Frequency of similair sized objects...Liklihood of them accompanying larger, trackable, near pass objects etc. I suspect folks are researching such things along with tracking larger objects, but I haven't seen much deep research/numbers on the danger.

Well from the above thread with the post of the Russian Meteor to DA14 show's one heck of a curve ball if it indeed come from DA14 and then sucked into are gravitational pull. Today I found this.

www.mnn.com...

The skies sure have been busy lately. In the days after the stunning meteor explosion over Chelyabinsk, Russia, that injured more than 1,200 people, three more meteor events were sighted over Cuba, Florida and California.

The California fireball occurred a few hours after the Cuba event and was caught on video by a dashboard camera. The driver who posted the nine-second clip to YouTube said he was driving south on Route 280 in the San Francisco Bay area when they saw a "bright blue shooting star (meteor) fly across towards the Peninsula." Check it out below:

The final occurrence took place at about 6:30pm on Sunday, February 17, when dozens of people across Florida reported a slowly moving fireball in the evening sky. This, too, was caught on video. NBC 4 filed this report:

My take, DA14 ran through an Asteroid belt projecting Meteors at Earth. My question would be, Since we are the closest we've ever been to the center of the Milky Way Galaxy, What Asteroid belts have we recently passed by and since we are starting to move outside the center of the Milky Way what Asteroid/Meteor belts is Earth suspected to pass by, I would feel this is only the begining.

I found the link earlier today that confirmed all the Meteor sigting threads and thought it would be best to post it in this thread.

reply to post by sulaw

My take, DA14 ran through an Asteroid belt projecting Meteors at Earth.

DA14 goes nowhere near the asteroid belt.

Since we are the closest we've ever been to the center of the Milky Way Galaxy,

What makes you think we are?

reply to post by Phage


I honestly doubt NASA or any other space agency would let us know if DA14 did infact bring meteors behind it while passing earth as the recent Meteors in Cuba/Florida/California would lead me to believe this.

The Center of our Milky Way Galaxy would have to be sourced... I read it somewhere before I'ma go look for the source.

reply to post by Indigo5

Are we accounting for that risk/scenario? Or are we only tracking large objects?

Every object that is found and has had sufficient observations to do so is being "tracked". Some are absolutely too small to pose any risk because of their size. Others pose tremendous risk because of their size, but none of them pose a strong risk of collision in the foreseeable future.

What is the probability/possibility that the object scheduled to pass at a similair distance in 2029 might have accompanying fragments that would strike the earth?

Very slight. People have been watching too many movies. There is no reason to think of that asteroids have a cloud of fragments accompanying them.

reply to post by Phage


Ok so I stand corrected Phage on the exact center of the Milky Way as we will never directly line up. We were 6 degree's off the center. 91.5 million miles from the galactic center / we didn't even line up~

Well thank you for correcting me Phage as the crackpot websites that sourced this before are now gone.

#3 sequence B in the below link, debunks anything that I heard of being in the Center of the milky way~

My bad~

www.google.com... %2Fwww.astroleague.org%2Ffiles%2Farticles%2Fgoss%2FWorldEndsDecember2012.pdf&ei=mrMjUfD3OIOsyAHa74HwBA&usg=AFQjCNF0bWURUynn2JXvk_-8ac0slhnwgw&bvm=bv.4 2553238,d.aWc

Spat.... Sorry Phage my link is bunk. Well anyway you look at it my info was wrong either way.

I can't however dismiss the Meteor and Comet sightings since then and would relate it to DA14 passing us by.

Originally posted by sulaw
Ok so I stand corrected Phage on the exact center of the Milky Way as we will never directly line up. We were 6 degree's off the center. 91.5 million miles from the galactic center / we didn't even line up

That's roughly 8 light minutes or close to one AU, which is closer to the average distance to the sun, than to the galactic center. That's close to the minimum distance to the sun on which occurs about every Jan 3, so maybe your source was referring to the Earth's closest approach to the sun, not the galactic center.

I heard the same crackpot stuff about galactic center a while back and actually tried to research it for about half an hour, and found this reference to a 2009 estimate:

universeataglance.blogspot.com...

R0=8.33 +-.35 kpc

That's a little over 27,000 light years, quite a bit more than 8 light minutes. In half an hour I never did find anything saying whether that distance was increasing, decreasing, or staying the same over time....but considering the range in the estimate, I'm not sure we know.

reply to post by Phage


Would it be your theorey that the FL, CA, Cuba sightings were just a result of heightened media attention to asteroids? Events that might typically occur, but now with near ubiquitous cameras and a news media paying unusaul attention to metoers?

reply to post by Indigo5

Would it be your theorey that the FL, CA, Cuba sightings were just a result of heightened media attention to asteroids?

Not the sightings, those happen all the time. The media interest, yes.

We didn't even hear about the Cuba meteor (which occurred on Wednesday night) until after the Russian meteor on Friday and probably never would have otherwise.

reply to post by Phage


I tend to agree with you on the intense focus of the news media distorting and magnifying otherwise common occurances...

But...i am still left with an uncomfortable feeling just knowing that what happened in Russia is possible even if it is not probable in the scheme of things. There was potential there to inflict more damage than what occured.