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There's no doubt this can happen, after Jupiter's gravity pulled apart a rubble pile to form shoemaker-levy-9 which impacted Jupiter in over 20 pieces in 1994, however, all the pieces were traveling in the same general direction.
Originally posted by Indigo5
The asteroid that passed close to the earth "DA14"...It is on an orbit or cycle...and each time it passes near a planet like the earth, tidal forces/gravity can pull chunks of the asteroid off or even break it into pieces.
I heard one Yale Physicist
Originally posted by Phage
reply to post by Indigo5
I heard one Yale Physicist
Which Yale physicist?
There are 10s of fireballs occurring on Earth every day. That pretty means there is 100% probability of there being at least one on the same day as the close approach of DA14.edit on 2/18/2013 by Phage because: (no reason given)
Meg Urry is the Israel Munson professor of physics and astronomy and chairwoman of the department of physics at Yale University, where she is the director of the Yale Center for Astronomy and Astrophysics.
The meteor that fell Friday near Chelyabinsk, Russia, was pretty big, maybe 50 feet across
NASA scientists estimate that meteors as large as Friday's might hit the Earth every decade or two
The close fly-by of an asteroid like DA14, like the Tunguska meteor, is a once-in-1,000-years event.
Two rare events happening at approximately the same time is much more unlikely. Here is how to think of it mathematically: If the events are not associated, the probability of this coincidence comes from multiplying the individual probabilities.
The answer is that we need to rethink the probability calculation. If asteroids as big as DA14 pass close to Earth once every decade or two, and meteors as large as the Chelyabinsk one impact once every 100 years (a similar meteor having caused the Tunguska event in 1908), the chance of both events happening on any one day are indeed very small: 1 in 3,650 days times 1 in 36,500 days, or about 1 in 100 million -- not odds you would bet against
So, a probability can be calculated but it doesn't really mean anything because there is no association between them.
If the events are not associated, the probability of this coincidence comes from multiplying the individual probabilities.
First of all, in the time between the two events, the Earth moved roughly 300,000 miles, meaning the asteroid and the meteor were in completely different places. Moreover, they traveled in completely different directions, so they couldn't have been associated.
The skies sure have been busy lately. In the days after the stunning meteor explosion over Chelyabinsk, Russia, that injured more than 1,200 people, three more meteor events were sighted over Cuba, Florida and California.
The California fireball occurred a few hours after the Cuba event and was caught on video by a dashboard camera. The driver who posted the nine-second clip to YouTube said he was driving south on Route 280 in the San Francisco Bay area when they saw a "bright blue shooting star (meteor) fly across towards the Peninsula." Check it out below:
The final occurrence took place at about 6:30pm on Sunday, February 17, when dozens of people across Florida reported a slowly moving fireball in the evening sky. This, too, was caught on video. NBC 4 filed this report:
DA14 goes nowhere near the asteroid belt.
My take, DA14 ran through an Asteroid belt projecting Meteors at Earth.
What makes you think we are?
Since we are the closest we've ever been to the center of the Milky Way Galaxy,
Every object that is found and has had sufficient observations to do so is being "tracked". Some are absolutely too small to pose any risk because of their size. Others pose tremendous risk because of their size, but none of them pose a strong risk of collision in the foreseeable future.
Are we accounting for that risk/scenario? Or are we only tracking large objects?
Very slight. People have been watching too many movies. There is no reason to think of that asteroids have a cloud of fragments accompanying them.
What is the probability/possibility that the object scheduled to pass at a similair distance in 2029 might have accompanying fragments that would strike the earth?
That's roughly 8 light minutes or close to one AU, which is closer to the average distance to the sun, than to the galactic center. That's close to the minimum distance to the sun on which occurs about every Jan 3, so maybe your source was referring to the Earth's closest approach to the sun, not the galactic center.
Originally posted by sulaw
Ok so I stand corrected Phage on the exact center of the Milky Way as we will never directly line up. We were 6 degree's off the center. 91.5 million miles from the galactic center / we didn't even line up
That's a little over 27,000 light years, quite a bit more than 8 light minutes. In half an hour I never did find anything saying whether that distance was increasing, decreasing, or staying the same over time....but considering the range in the estimate, I'm not sure we know.
R0=8.33 +-.35 kpc
Not the sightings, those happen all the time. The media interest, yes.
Would it be your theorey that the FL, CA, Cuba sightings were just a result of heightened media attention to asteroids?