posted on Mar, 3 2013 @ 08:58 PM
Despite what you might think about a South American Cardinal being elected, (although I dont think you've managed to back up your prediction with
anything other than 'Brazil is a big country'), in times of crises, it has always been a feature of the catholic church and the Curia in particular
to retract and consolidate, and focus on dogma over diplomacy not break with tradition.
I dont see the the current crop of cardinals opting for any candidate from South America, largely because of the influence 'liberation theology' in
the south American diosces. The last two popes have systematically embarked on a strategy which was focussed on the retraction of liberalisim within
church dogma, and trying to reinstate the church as a world diplomatic player, especially by the international campaigns of John Paul II, the
expansion of the church's representaion at the United Nations, and administative structures.
Its a basis of strategy that you need to embark from a strong point, and steady ground, thus the retreat into traditional dogma and the increased
influence of the congregation of the faith. For the last two decades the congragation has aggressively policed priests who depart from dogma and many
liberal clergymen within the church have been summoned to rome and silenced under threat of ex communication.
It may be that the curia believe that this process is now complete, signalling the opportunity for Benedict to stand aside and make way for a more
capable administrator to manage the strengthening of the church's manaagement and administration structures and processes.
If the above is correct, then I dont see Brazil as being the most obvious place to look for such a candidate.
I think its more likely that they will pick an otherwise obscure italian administrator, as much of the language of government within the church is
still conducted in italian. Scola looks like a strong candidate, however I believe his age works against him.
thurksen, is also a strong candidate when you look at what he has managed to achieve within the church in Africa, and the proliferation of African
priests accross the globe, (as far as I am aware, there have been more priests ordained from African countries over the last two decades than all
other parts of the world combined, plus, the expansion of China within Africa needs to countered.)
The last two popes built their career on combating the expansion of communisim, which the church has always seen as a threat, with the break up of the
soviet states and the consolidation of the church within Europe, the time is probably correct for the church to focus it's attention on the far east,
where communisim is still on the march, the middle east where islam has been gaining more and more control, and the emerging nations within an African
continent that is growing in wealth, population and influence.
By opting for an African, it seems to me that they would be strengthening their influence on two two spheres, first to confront the expansion of islam
into Africa, and to the gain influence with the chinese by acting as the middle man for the chinese expansion into the continant.
My money would be on an Italian, who subsequently elevates Thurksen within the curia or appointing him as head of the congragation of the faith, (AKA