posted on Oct, 30 2004 @ 11:55 AM
Here's my prediction... even though I know that 2008 is a LONG time away and we have time to have a lot of surprises...
Republican ticket: Rudolph Giuliani - Bill Frist
Explanation: It's obvious that Giuliani would be a star candidate, and although he'll be 64 at that point, he'll still be younger than John McCain
(will be 72 in 2008), Colin Powell (will be 71 in 2008) and Elizabeth Dole (will be 72 in 2008). In a context where you've had two Bush presidencies
in 20 years, I doubt the Republican party will want to take the risk of putting Jeb on the ticket. People might see this as too much elevation for the
Now that we have our candidate for President, let's look at the vice-presidency. Tom Ridge is out - if you have Giuliani from New York, you can't
have a VP candidate from Pennsylvania. So instead, you go get Bill Frist from Tennessee... useful if Gore is back on the Democratic ticket, plus
he'll be 56 at that point - still young enough to represent the future and not the past. Pat Roberts, another good candidate from the South (Kansas)
will be too old.
Another point in favor of a Giuliani-Frist ticket is that while Giuliani is tough on defense, he and Frist are more moderate than George W. Bush and
Dick Cheney. That could count for something after eight years of Republican power, when moderates and the undecided might be looking for something
Democratic ticket: Al Gore - Howard Dean OR Barack Obama
You heard me right, Al Gore, not Hillary. I think Gore was right to pass up the nomination in 2004 - it's a dangerous time to be President, and
whoever is elected - out of Bush or Kerry - will have an uphill battle to fight. The war in Iraq won't be easy to win, and there will be much more to
hold the President accountable for in 2008 than there is even in 2004. We're still living the aftermath of the war in Iraq, the possible death of
Yasser Arafat will cause instability in the Middle East, and Iran is a question mark. So whoever is President might not be very popular by 2008. Right
now, for this scenario, I'm assuming Bush wins a second term.
In a second Bush term, if the 2004 election ends up being as bizarre as the 2000 election, Gore would be the ideal voice for the Democratic party -
the guy who almost beat Bush, the guy who got the most popular votes in 2000. By 2008, he would be like Nixon in 1968, asking people whether they're
tired of war, division and acrimony. I could very well see people flocking to his candidacy - he would be more of a uniter than Hillary Clinton, and
he'd be more of a heavyweight than John Edwards. At 67, Dick Gephardt would look like a man of the past - especially since he'd be running for the
fifth or sixth time. Joe Lieberman, at 66, would still be electable but would lack the clout it takes.
So now we choose a vice-presidential candidate. Howard Dean at that point is 59, he balances the ticket (Vermont) and appeals to the younger voters.
Like Dick Cheney, he's too radical to be the candidate for president, but useful enough to be the vice-presidential candidate.
The second possibility... Barack Obama would be interesting - young (he'll be 47 by then), charismatic, balances the ticket (Illinois) and the first
African-American candidate. However, only four years in the Senate might make him look a bit unexperienced.
Among the other candidates for vice president... Hillary Clinton would be a no-no, since a Gore-Clinton ticket would not sit well with people who
wouldn't want the same old Clinton team back into power.