A solar 'superstorm' is coming and we'll only get 30-minute warning

reply to post by 0bserver1

Not many.
www.ehow.com...

reply to post by hp1229


Solar flares can actually be predicted on Earth before they happen now because the rate of radio active decay changes before the storm.

Researchers may have discovered a new method to predict solar flares more than a day before they occur, providing advance warning to help protect satellites, power grids and astronauts from potentially dangerous radiation.

The system works by measuring differences in gamma radiation emitted when atoms in radioactive elements "decay," or lose energy. This rate of decay is widely believed to be constant, but recent findings challenge that long-accepted rule.

The new detection technique is based on a hypothesis that radioactive decay rates are influenced by solar activity, possibly streams of subatomic particles called solar neutrinos. This influence can wax and wane due to seasonal changes in the Earth's distance from the sun and also during solar flares, according to the hypothesis, which is supported with data published in a dozen research papers since it was proposed in 2006, said Ephraim Fischbach, a Purdue University professor of physics.

www.purdue.edu... eleases/2012/Q3/new-system-could-predict-solar-flares,-give-advance-warning.html

Originally posted by boymonkey74
Maybe they know it may be coming I saw this on the BBC website..

www.bbc.co.uk...

I'm all about optimism, but this report is optimistic beyond reason. They seem to talk up their own grid as if it can't be touched by nature, while skipping the implicated effects on our global economy... i.e. if the grid goes down in the majority of the G20 (U.S. included), then they will still be a-okay, because of their nifty lattice grid. It makes the article sound slightly like a piece of patronage intended to keep people unprepared.

reply to post by crystalbeing

Solar flares can actually be predicted on Earth before they happen now because the rate of radio active decay changes before the storm.

Not so much. The hypothesis is yet to be demonstrated. The findings (and speculation about what they mean) are far from conclusive.
blogs.discovermagazine.com...

Nothing is going to happen. If you believe something will happen I will gladly buy all of your electronics from you... at a very cheap rate considering they will be useless when this super storm hits.

Once you realize how foolish you were to believe all the hype I will gladly sell them back to a you at a markup.

People are always looking for a doom and gloom scenario.

reply to post by Phage


ohw... uh I could have googled this myself...I could've known that this was your answer , damn never seem to fully prepared when questioning you...

Originally posted by IronVelvet

Originally posted by Phage
reply to post by IronVelvet

 

Just because the Wiki page has a bunch of bogus on it about the "new age movement" doesn't mean we aren't actually moving through a different part of the universe that contains a photon belt.

Do you know what photons are? Can you explain how they can form a "belt"?

which I believe is the primary reason our sun has been so active lately.

Um. The Sun is actually quite calm. Calmer than it has been in more than 100 years. Though it is following its 11 year cycle, the cycle is very mild as far as activity goes.
solarscience.msfc.nasa.gov...

I just can't get a single thing through that thick little head of yours can i?

Still don't understand what a solar flare is, huh? It is a burst of electromagnetic radiation. It is not directional. The Earth is hit by a flare which occurs anywhere on the side of the Sun which is facing Earth. The flare hit the SOHO satellite directly. The flare hit Earth directly. As shown above the effects on the upper atmosphere were actually that of an X45 flare. No EMP. No electronics fried. No people fried.

Solar flares do not affect electronics on Earth's surface. A solar flare will not hurt your iPhone (or you).
Geomagnetic storms do not affect electronics (unless they are plugged into an unstable electric grid).

edit on 2/8/2013 by Phage because: (no reason given)

Since you dont even know how the sun produces gas, I dont feel a need to reply back to you anymore. If you cant even understand that then you are simply incapable of understanding how Solar flares and photon belts work.

Maybe you mean because the plasma behaves as a gas.

The magnetosphere provides a barrier between our planet and particles continually given off by the Sun's corona called the "solar wind." These particles constitute a plasma - a mixture of electrons (negatively charged) and ions (atoms that have lost electrons, resulting in a positive electric charge).

Plasma is not a gas, liquid, or solid - it is the fourth state of matter. Plasma often behaves like a gas, except that it conducts electricity and is affected by magnetic fields. On an astronomical scale, plasma is common. The Sun is composed of plasma, fire is plasma, fluorescent and neon lights contain plasma.

science.nasa.gov...

or are you thinking of the hydrogen

Mewaldt believes that all strong flares might emit hydrogen bursts, but they simply haven't been noticed before. He's looking forward to more X-flares now that the two STEREO spacecraft are widely separated on nearly opposite sides of the Sun. (In 2006 they were still together near Earth.) STEREO-A and –B may be able to triangulate future bursts and pinpoint the source of the hydrogen. This would allow the team to test their ideas about the surprising phenomenon.

science.nasa.gov...

Really great website here for Science news.

reply to post by SpearMint


Well played sir... Well played(pun intended)

How do they know it happens every 100-200 years without the equipment to measure it back then?

Originally posted by daryllyn
reply to post by TauCetixeta

 

Check Wikipedia.

Wiki is not a reliable source.

Just sayin'....

The article is saying that we would have a 30 minute warning before it ejects, not a 30 minute warning of it hitting the earth.

edit on 7-2-2013 by daryllyn because: (no reason given)

Either is ATS

Obviously some of you don't understand CMEs. If a CME is directed straight at the Earth, we have a huge stress on the magnetosphere. Northern lights really fire up and some go woowoo. An X level CME gets through the magnetosphere and can affect electronics. Not the initiial blast, which could be at light speed, and we will detect, but the actual Mass of the CME. Notice I said Mass. There is an actual ejection of MASS in a Coronal Mass Ejection. A small one is not a problem. A big one is.

The X-28, revised to X-45, was not pointed at Earth, but we did see it, and it was so big it wiped out our sensors. Prior to that CME, the definition of CMEs had as a definition that an X CME of over 30 would cause deaths on Earth because the magnetosphere would be wiped out and hard radiation would be allowed to come through. When they finally came out with the X-45 rating, that definition could no longer be found on the net, according to my own searches anyway. If that X-45 had been pointed directly at us, we would be dead. The hard radiation would have been way too much unless you were on the opposite side of the globe and the pulse passed by before you came around. The dinosaurs died from an asteroid, or a CME? Good question.

The intitial flare doesn't mean squat. It won't do anything. When the actual naked protons and electrons and neutrons from the actual MASS of the CME arrive, then you have a problem depending on the strength of the CME. Cs and Ms are snoozers. Xs get a little more exciting. Up to 20, they are amusing, and can cause problems, remember an X-6 caused a blackout in Canada, but if they are larger than X-20, now it is time to get worried and not just about your electronics. At some point above X-20 the magnetosphere will give way, and you will get a lovely tan and your radiated brain will lose cells and forget what you are doing and you will drift off into the next plane of existence.

We will have a few days to prepare in the event of a huge CME. The flash is at the speed of light but the mass isn't. It will take a couple of days. Praying won't help, digging deep might. Find a place with lots of mass between you and the mass coming in, because it will be hot radiation and you will need a lot of mass between you and it. Of course, it might be easier to just stay on the surface and toast.

I just wanted to brighten your day.

Toast!!!
You have 60 days to say your goodbye's maybe, maybe not!

I thought the sun was going to go into a several decade long period of not being very active, a long duration solar minimum after either 2012 or 2013. Our planet should start getting colder and colder. Crops might freeze. Scientists will become alarmed that their greenhouse models don't have solar radation as a big enough factor in their climate models. But this might be 10 to 20 years from now after we're all paying much higher carbon taxes and worries about massive solar flares are long gone. Of course even mentioning the possibility that our climate could get colder due to less solar activity seems to throw those convinced that mankind is causing massive global warming into a mad rage. I believe solar flares are not a problem. Carbon dioxide is not a major problem but it is making our oceans too acidic harming coral reefs. I'm in favor of the northeast freezing over along with the west coast. For that, we need to dump some iron ore powder in the ocean and help jump start massive global cooling. Solar flares will be the last thing anyone worries about then.

As far as preparing for outages due to blown electrical equipment, I believe mobile power equipment set ups are being built to more quickly get power restored. I still wonder if a massive solar flare could fry all of our electrical equipment.

Originally posted by rival
Worst case scenario, full frontal assault...my prediction.

Communications and power grid knocked out nationwide. Millions of homes and businesses on fire at the
point of electrical connection to the grid. Standstill traffic everywhere, A run on food supplies, chaos
and looting as alarms fail, police vehicles fail, and government services fail.

Faraday cages will protect your electronics, but with no electrical grid or working satellites it will
be awhile before that preparation will help you. Most vehicles will not run without repair and there will be
a stoppage in the supply line from farm to store. People will be stranded...older cars that operate
and bicycles will sell for many times their value, and those guns we use to protect ourselves
will be very valuable as well....

Wow, really. Hard to believe that someone on this site would predict a worse case scenario.

Originally posted by Orygun
Obviously some of you don't understand CMEs. If a CME is directed straight at the Earth, we have a huge stress on the magnetosphere. Northern lights really fire up and some go woowoo. An X level CME gets through the magnetosphere and can affect electronics. Not the initiial blast, which could be at light speed, and we will detect, but the actual Mass of the CME. Notice I said Mass. There is an actual ejection of MASS in a Coronal Mass Ejection. A small one is not a problem. A big one is.

The X-28, revised to X-45, was not pointed at Earth, but we did see it, and it was so big it wiped out our sensors. Prior to that CME, the definition of CMEs had as a definition that an X CME of over 30 would cause deaths on Earth because the magnetosphere would be wiped out and hard radiation would be allowed to come through.

CMEs are not measured by Solar flare measurements. There is no such thing as an X class CME..

X-Ray Flare Classification

Solar flares are classified based on their x-ray intensity. A series of letters and numbers is used to classify the energy level of an x-ray flare.
C = 1.0x10-6 (W m-2)

M = 1.0x10-5 (W m-2)

X = 1.0x10-4 (W m-2)

Now why wouldn't we measure the power of mass in X-Ray Intensity?

Notice that this CME is even larger than the Sun itself, which is represented by the white circle in the middle of the frame. Solar flares and coronal mass ejections often occur together, but each can also take place in the absence of the other.

Read through this short link that explains the whole thing