A solar 'superstorm' is coming and we'll only get 30-minute warning

If it helps, I have a couple links for the 1859 Carrington Event as well as a rather solid list of solar weather events in the years since. This focuses on the personal accounts and contemporary reporting of the events.

Carrington Event

List of numerous events from 1859 to present

I think a very high x range event would have the potential to do great damage to everything electrical and electronic, however, this is one threat that is NOT instant. As the accounts there show, on a real big one, we have plenty of warning. The laws of physics dictate that for sheer distance involved, It's happened before and will again, but we'll have warning of this particular threat, I'd say.



The sun is also running noticeably below projections for activity. This is far from the greatest concern, IMO. The media picks this at an interesting time for the lack of any evidence to support the concern. Quite the opposite actually, by looking at the data right now?

reply to post by TauCetixeta



Before you guys go further with the 30 minutes and 17 hours deal let me say something..

The Flare could get there about that fast, but the Coronal mass ejection could take from 12-56 hours or so..

Coronal mass ejections are the heavy charged particles that are slowly pushed off, well, slow in comparison to the Flares...

The carrington event was caused by a CME not a Flare, but the flare comes first as a warning..

Flares still can be quite damaging, if they are high up on the X scale, or higher..

It takes about two days for the cloud of material produced by a coronal mass ejection to reach and interact with Earth's magnetosphere. What phenomena are associated with this interaction?

The Northern and Southern Lights (aurora borealis and aurora australis) are often associated with coronal mass ejections. Coronal mass ejections may also disrupt radio and satellite signals, and even interfere with electric power grids on Earth.

Nat Geo link

Originally posted by drmeola
No need to go that crazy folks, to protect any and all electronic devices simple unplug them, same with your car just turn off the engine…the real issue is the very high probability of a satellite being knocked out of its orbit or destroyed totally depending on which one goes down could mean some serious outages for many things such as cell phones, TV stations or any other communication type devices. The odds of a total grid outage is so small yet something to prepare for just incase, if this was to happen the estimates range from a couple of months to a few years before total restoration of the power grid, repeat again super small chance of this happening and is a worse case scenario.

UNPLUG just turning it off may not prevent damage to electronics as a surge can still occur.
Thank you.

my only problem with this is assuming whoever is responsible for getting the grid back on track will do it in a timely manner. How long did it take to get power back to people affected by Sandy? Look at the mess that happened in New Orleans.

These types of earth storms, albeit rare, affect us more often than solar superstorms. In a worse case scenario, blindsided by a solar superstorm that did its maximum damage, i personally believe we would be royally screwed and for a while.

Thats just me though, i am admittedly not well versed in this scientific area, i just know better than to ever EVER trust our government.

reply to post by Dustytoad


I'll bet if you call this UK journalist on the phone that he will admit to
"making up" this "team of engineers".
The entire article reads like a bad National Enquirer story.

Always remember ....fear sells newspapers.

Originally posted by TauCetixeta
reply to post by Dustytoad

 

I'll bet if you call this UK journalist on the phone that he will admit to
"making up" this "team of engineers".
The entire article reads like a bad National Enquirer story.

Always remember ....fear sells newspapers.

They aren't made up. The Royal Academy of Engineering in London is quite real.

Here is the publication that is being referred to in the OP.

Source

Originally posted by boymonkey74
reply to post by SpearMint

 

Wouldn't a microwave do? honest question I have an old microwave and I thought of putting my backup hardrive etc in it just in case.

Yes a microwave will effectively serve as a fariday box. Unplug the unit and place all your phones, laptops, XBoxes etc. inside.

The lining that keeps the microwaves inside will also keep the EMP waves outside.

God Bless,

I think Speed of Light distance from Sun to Earth is about 8 minutes.

Originally posted by luciddream
I think Speed of Light distance from Sun to Earth is about 8 minutes.

Bingo! That's the speed of the x rays hitting the Earth. They have the Solar Flares at
Wikipedia also.
8 minutes 19 seconds at the speed of light

I think this UK journalist got a D- in science class and was pushed out the door.

Originally posted by daryllyn

Originally posted by TauCetixeta
reply to post by Dustytoad

 

I'll bet if you call this UK journalist on the phone that he will admit to
"making up" this "team of engineers".
The entire article reads like a bad National Enquirer story.

Always remember ....fear sells newspapers.

They aren't made up. The Royal Academy of Engineering in London is quite real.

Here is the publication that is being referred to in the OP.

Source

You are digging a hole.
Nowhere in that report will it say we will "get a 30 minute warning" about a solar superstorm.

His team of engineers do not exist.

In the world of reality, the SDO will reveal the "Superstorm CME" immediately.
The scientists will pick up the phone and call the White House right away.

Worst case scenario.....we will have at least 17 hours....to respond.

Apparently, the USA scientists are smarter than the UK scientists.


BTW, there is only a 5% chance we would take a direct hit from a CME.
It's a very large solar system. Mars, Venus or Mercury might get hit instead.

If shutting off the Grids or unplugging electronics will not help, what is the point of even warning people, 30 minutes, you dont have time to do much to prepare for it anyways, if there IS someting that can be done to prepare.

I know what an EMP will do to electronics and all but can it be harmfull to us physically?

like getting burned or nausea or whatever?

WG

reply to post by TauCetixeta

Nowhere in that report will it say we will "get a 30 minute warning" about a solar superstorm.

Oh really? What's this then?

It is now possible to monitor and model the evolution of an Earth-directed CME such that its arrival at Earth can sometimes be forecast with an accuracy of ±6-8 hours [taktakishvili et al., 2010]. Unfortunately, these errors are larger for fast CMEs which would be expected during a superstorm. Furthermore, forecasts of its geoeffectiveness are currently not possible until the CME reaches the L1 point, where its magnetic field can be measured and alerts issued to engineering teams and agencies. The lead time is then only [color=dodgerblue]15-30 minutes. That warning time would be significantly increased if the CME magnetic field could be determined upstream from L1.

From page 14 of the report

His team of engineers do not exist.

Who wrote the report then?

BTW, there is only a 5% chance we would take a direct hit from a CME.

Source, please.

It appears after reading some of the report that the 15-30 minute warning does not apply to all CMEs, only to specific circumstances. They mention 'super storm' and 'fast' CMEs, and that is the situation to which the 30 minute warning applies.

Unfortunately, these errors are larger for fast CMEs which would be expected during a superstorm.

The warning appears to apply to a worst case scenario and not to every scenario as is implied in the article cited by the OP.

Originally posted by WOWGamer
If shutting off the Grids or unplugging electronics will not help, what is the point of even warning people, 30 minutes, you dont have time to do much to prepare for it anyways, if there IS someting that can be done to prepare.

I know what an EMP will do to electronics and all but can it be harmfull to us physically?

like getting burned or nausea or whatever?

WG

They found a solution in Texas. Also, Canada has installed devices to protect their HVTs.
Texas has its own power grid. Texas solution:
Install disconnects. Isolate Texas from both main power grids.
6 hours before the CME hits just open the disconnects and shutdown all power generation.
The High Voltage Transformers will be cold, dark and quiet when the CME arrives.

reply to post by daryllyn


We will not have to wait until L1 position to know Earth is going to take a direct hit.

The 15 - 30 minute number is bogus.

We will have 17 hours to respond. Did you go to college?

Here look at this prediction model.
Let it load and watch the CMEs.

We will have more than a 30 minute heads up. You have been deceived.
Space Weather Prediction Center

We had a long duration C9 solar flare that might give a glancing blow to the magnetic field in the next few days. It could give us some nice Northern lights that go way down south this time. I hope it's not cloudy around here.

I would imagine that a good quality surge protector or UPS would prevent any sun-induced damage. This seems to me to be the same event (a surge in the line voltage) that they are designed to handle.They make whole-house protectors as well.

reply to post by daryllyn


The lead time on how exactly strong it is, might be 30 minutes, but you can watch it happen live and have a good idea about just how big it is.. Still it can take days to get to earth from it's moment of detection. The 30 minutes is from strength detection satellites close to earth. They will know LONG before then one is on it's way..

I have had days warning from CME's in the past..

They are launched at the same time as the flare..

Some thread example(s)
CME Plasma cloud to hit 14/02/2012?

This one was 4 days warning..
A full Halo C.M.E. was observed april 8th and the results are schedules to arrive at the latest by April 12th.


We have days Warning..

reply to post by TauCetixeta


You are failing to recognize the distinction between a run of the mill CME that we see on a regular basis and an earth directed 'superstorm', which is what the report is about. These are two completely different sets of circumstances.

The report is about disaster mitigation in the event of 'extreme space weather'.

You obviously didn't read the report, instead, you would rather insult my intelligence, and, tell me I am wrong without citing any credible sources to back up your claim.

I see that you are new around here, and frankly, it shows. People often resort to personal attacks when they realize that their argument is invalid.

Ad hominem attacks are against the terms of conditions.

An ad hominem (Latin for "to the man"), short for argumentum ad hominem, is an argument made personally against an opponent instead of against their argument

Definition from wikipedia since you are so fond of it.

reply to post by Montana


A good UPS comes in handy for a severe thunderstorm also.
If the lights go out, your computer will be safe and operate for about 7 minutes.
Then go buy a generator at Home Depot.

Originally posted by Dustytoad
reply to post by daryllyn

 

The lead time on how exactly strong it is, might be 30 minutes, but you can watch it happen live and have a good idea about just how big it is.. Still it can take days to get to earth from it's moment of detection. The 30 minutes is from strength detection satellites close to earth. They will know LONG before then one is on it's way..

I have had days warning from CME's in the past..

They are launched at the same time as the flare..

Some thread example(s)
CME Plasma cloud to hit 14/02/2012?

This one was 4 days warning..
A full Halo C.M.E. was observed april 8th and the results are schedules to arrive at the latest by April 12th.


We have days Warning..

edit on 2/7/2013 by Dustytoad because: (no reason given)

edit on 2/7/2013 by Dustytoad because: (no reason given)

You are correct. She is too proud to admit she has been deceived.
Our professionals at the Space Weather Prediction Center have our back.
I also sleep just fine knowing that there is only a 5% chance of a direct hit on Earth.

Always remember....fear sells newspapers.

Think about it. Which newspaper would YOU buy?

-- If CME Superstorm erupts from our sun, only 5% chance Earth would get hit. --
It's a very large solar system.

OR

Would you pick up and buy........
OMG!!!!!!!!!!!! A Solar SUPERSTORM is coming!!!!!!!! We'll only get 30 minute warning !!!!!!!!

Unplugging is NOT going to help, The electrical current is essentially everywhere during a CME so the current is going to jump from circuit to circuit destroying all electrical devices, thats why even a Car while turned Off is still going to be useless, even while being grounded rather good, because the electrical current is travelling throughout earth and the atmosphere. The only way to beat it, is to have a faraday cage, or something that breaks the current, you are essentially creating your own earth.