Trader Makes Huge Bet of 11 Million Something Bad Will Happen Within 60 Days...

reply to post by hawkiye

The other thing people seem to be ignoring is that there are more then one of these bets and corporate insiders are dumping stocks at 9 times the usual rate as I posted in my second post to this thread. This corroborates the OP So now we have several indicators that insiders are expecting a crash.

Corporate insiders sell their positions (mostly stock options) in their own companies when their stocks are high so they can take profits... that's how its works. It is not an indication of a an impending market crash. Neither is an 11 million dollar bet that the market will go lower in the next 60 days. It doesn't mean people think the market is going to crash, but rather that it will go lower than it is now. That's a fair bet in my opinion.

I'm pretty sure somebody has done this before, and the stock market didn't crash then.

People place bets all the time at casinos and they are sure they will win....you know what usually happens?

Originally posted by tide88
reply to post by hawkiye

 

Hey bought options, he can sell those options at any time before the 60 day strike date. If the market were to have one bad day he could make an easy 20-50% in one day. With the market at all time highs, there will likely be a pullback or multiple pullbacks in the next month.

It probably is a hedge fund and they probably will double their money.

He made a call spread buy....

Bought calls at 20 and sold calls at 25. He doesn't even break even until it hits 20. However, he could be rolling something over but then that's a huge move all at one time. It just looks odd is all. As if the trader knew something was coming in April. The trade only makes big money close to expiration. Just my two cents.

Deliberate electromagnetic pulse attack coming to DC?
F. Michael Maloof, staff writer G2Bulletin, is a former senior security policy analyst in the office of the secretary of defense
WASHINGTON – Just what would be the economic cost to the U.S. in the event of a deliberate electromagnetic pulse attack, an attack that could result from a nuclear explosion from a device launched off-shore with virtually no warning?
Try up to $3 trillion, nearly equivalent to the federal government’s entire 2013 budget, and that’s just for an attack that would impact the eastern seaboard.
The Sage Policy Group of Baltimore and Instant Access Networks examined what it would cost should there be a high-altitude EMP attack.
The study was meant to give a conservative determination of the economic impact from the effects of an electromagnetic attack on the Washington, D.C., region, stretching from Baltimore, Md., to Richmond, Va.
The effort was to “put a financial face to the problem and suggest quick steps that can be taken to mitigate” the economic impact of an EMP attack, according to the study.
The study looked at the economic effects of such an attack from a nuclear device detonated between 30 and 80 miles above the ground, affecting an area at least 500 miles in radius.
“A larger nuclear device detonated at 300-400 miles above ground would impact the entire continent and may also produce a substantial slower pulse (known as E3) that can cause additional damage,” the study said. “In these instances of high-altitude EMP, no one would feel the heat or blast but merely experience the effects of the disruption or damage to the electronic and power infrastructure.”
An electromagnetic pulse is a high-intensity burst of electromagnetic energy caused by the rapid acceleration of charged particles.
These particles can be so powerful and supercharged that they can knock out or completely fry any unprotected electronics or electrical systems, depending on intensity.

Electromagnetic energy comes in many forms, including gamma rays, X-rays, microwaves, radio waves and infrared radiation, among others.
The Sage study estimated that the effects of a detonation over the area at the stated altitude would extend out hundreds of miles beyond the region that was considered in the study, “significantly complicating the recovery process and the restoration of economic activity while producing economic consequences roughly 10 times greater than those impacting” only the Washington region.
The report presented a range of low, medium and high impact scenarios and the resulting estimates of the economic damage. The methodology took into account assumptions on the disruption and damage to regional electrical power systems, communications, system control and data acquisition, or SCADA, devices and other critical infrastructure from the EMP attack.
Destroying and damaging these infrastructures also would have an impact on larger power systems that similarly would be disrupted or damaged, causing management and safety measures to be defeated.
“This can result in larger system failures and damage,” the study said.
The study also looked at the time that would be required to repair the damage and fully restore economic activity.
“Because the economy is so interconnected and so dependent on electricity to power that interconnectedness, very little of the electrical, communications or electronic infrastructure would escape unaffected,” the report said.
However, only equipment that is shielded from both radiated and conducted pulses that meet military specifications such as the series 188-125 could be counted upon to survive without disruption or damage, it said.
“Civilian critical infrastructure is largely unprotected at this time,” the study said.
Under this high, or worst-case scenario, the study said that the damage from an EMP attack would be widespread and the duration of disrepair would last for years. It went on to say that the quantity of equipment needed to replace that which was destroyed and damaged would quickly exhaust readily available supplies and could exceed existing manufacturing capacity.
With that, the available skilled labor to replace and restore key infrastructure probably wouldn’t exist for some time. And the time to undertake the replacement and repair would occur slowly and only gather speed as the basic infrastructure gradually was brought back on line.
In taking a conservative approach in the study, it meant that the damage could be considerably worse than what the study revealed.
“More extensive damage is also likely to be associated with high-altitude EMP that would affect areas much larger than the Baltimore-Washington-Richmond region, further complicating recovery efforts,” the report said.
The study pointed out that the Washington to Richmond regional economy is “large and complex. It constitutes approximately 4 percent of the nation’s output and is characterized by a substantial presence of information technology/security, biotechnology/medical research, finance and insurance, government/government contracting, health care and professional/business services.”
In reviewing the prominent sectors in this regional economy, the report said it also demonstrates the region’s vulnerability to economic damage from an EMP.
“While electricity, communications and electronics are vital to every aspect of the American economy, it is particularly easy to see the effects of disruptions to this infrastructure on government, professional and technical services and real estate,” the report said.
“These sectors are highly reliant on computers and telecommunications on a continual basis,” it said. “Alternatively, relatively little economic activity may be available after an EMP.
“Aside from a few subsistence farmers, some fishing and hunting activities, the economic impacts of disruption to the electrical power system and the electrical and electronic infrastructure could be pervasive and potentially profound,” the report added.
“The three-city metro area between Richmond, Va., Washington, D.C., and Baltimore, Md., could save $25 billion to $125 billion in losses if they were to take steps to protect their most critical communications and power infrastructure. The East Coast as a whole would save 10 times as much,” Charles L. Manto, CEO of Instant Access Networks said.
In not undertaking preventative measures, however, the study said that the impact to financial output over a 33-month period ranged from $34 billion in the low case to $771 billion on the high case, although a more conservative range would be between $100 billion and $300 billion, Manto said.
“Extrapolating to the East Coast area as a whole,” Manto said, “would mean a 10 times larger loss of $1 trillion to $3 trillion.”
The study pointed out that when Hurricane Katrina struck, the population in the affected area and much of the economic activity was dispersed to other regions of the country.
“(A) high-altitude EMP at a 30-80 mile altitude would result in a regional impact, but one around 300 miles above ground would impact the entire continental U.S. and most of the industrial sections of Canada and Mexico.
“In the event of a continental-wide EMP, escaping the economic damage of the Baltimore-Washington-Richmond region by moving to Philadelphia, Atlanta or Chicago simply may not be possible,” the study said. “In that event, there could be an entire collapse of the economy as we know it for a period of years.”
In projecting the economic recovery necessary on a nationwide basis, the study made the following ominous observation:
“There are likely to be many constraints on the ability of the region’s economy to restore itself. For example, between 1,100 and 1,200 medium to large power transformers are sold in the United States each year. The largest transformers in the region take one to two years to build and additional time for deployment. The best financed utilities strive to keep as many as 10 percent of their transformers in stock since their schedules assume as long as five years to put one into use. If an EMP resulted in an instantaneous demand for 10-70 percent of replaced medium to large power transformers, it would require using all of the spares (assuming the spares were not damaged) at a minimum and 600 percent more in the worst case. It is unclear how quickly replacement transformers could be delivered to the region. Once what little stock available is used, customers would have to wait in line for their turn to receive their orders. Additional build-out of factory facilities would likely need to be made to fulfill large back logs of orders. At that point, we would hope that in the scenario presenting the least damage, there would not be a second EMP hit six months later when no spares are left.
“Skilled labor would also be an essential part of a restoration effort. The mobilization of utility workers in response to natural disasters is a familiar story. An EMP, however, would likely require similar mobilizations of skilled personnel to restore the electrical and electronic infrastructure. It is unclear whether the industries and businesses required for infrastructure restoration have the organizational experience or capacity to quickly mobilize in response to an EMP disaster or to sustain the effort needed for recovery.
“The financial investment necessary to restore economic capacity on a regional basis is substantial. Presumably the insurance industry would be a critical player in amassing the capital necessary for this investment. The experience of Hurricane Katrina, however, suggests that the insurance industry may at times be a barrier to recovery. Were an EMP considered an act of war, insurance claims might be legitimately rejected. For a variety of reasons, the lack of capital could substantially delay the restoration of economic capacity and increase the economic costs associated with an EMP.”
The Sage study, however, offered some glimmer of hope in the face of the consequences of a catastrophic event. It said that if a community can protect the vital 10 percent of its critical infrastructure such as energy and communication, it will stand to gain more than a 10 percent reduction of loss.
“Because partial shielding will reduce damage to critical infrastructure, it will tend to reduce the time required to recover full economic vitality, though initial recovery would be significantly enhanced or ensured,” the study said.
So if the Baltimore/Annapolis area had protected roughly 10 percent of its strategic infrastructure, such as power through the use of EMP-protected micro-grids and related systems and emergency communications through the use of shielded systems and related SCADA devices, the study said it could ensure its water supply, the functioning of its emergency communication centers and hospitals.
SCADAs referred to in the report stands for Supervisory Control and Data Acquisition Systems, commonly referred to as automated control systems.
“If those essential services were not available and local government had no situational awareness or ability to respond to fires and other emergencies, then the situation would get worse instead of better and far less immediate help could be brought to bear,” the study said.
The report warned, however, that the number of major factors influencing total recovery time “will be substantial.”
The report pointed out that if a large number of electric transformers and much of the telecommunications system are damaged, “maintaining situational awareness” may help facilitate the initial deployment of available transformers to the most strategic locations.
“However, the backlog back at the factory producing transformers might not be meaningfully improved if that backlog takes years to fulfill,” the report said. “Additional factory capacity would similarly take time to become available. Accordingly, the estimated long-term recovery time is left largely unchanged.”
All of which is to say that in recovery times if only some of the strategic equipment, particularly transformers, is shielded, the high-impact case suggests it could take almost three years to recover. Partially shielded telecommunications could similarly take more than two years to be fully functioning again.
In making its assessment that a high impact EMP event – whether natural or man-made – just to the Washington regional area could be some $771 billion and take up to almost three years to recover, the study said that amount would not include the replacement cost of damaged infrastructure and equipment or secondary effects due to the loss of infrastructure.
In that case, the amount for recovery over at least a three-year period could exceed $1 trillion.
“Policymakers could proactively limit damage and expedite recovery times through shielding activities that protect key communications and energy-related infrastructures, water supply, and key emergency response functions,” the study concluded.
Global warming does not exist, magnets do and they're very easy to get. Do you realize even a child can purchase very strong ones? Who knows what damage they can cause with this, now just imagine what one of these "global warming" alarmists can do with several. They can make as many pulses as they want and right now we can't stop them.

"This is crazy. Someone is awfully confident to risk 11+ million. According to the article this type move up in the VIX is usually accompanied by a drop in the Stock market. Any traders heard about this?"

I was waiting for this to happen, I am not a trader but i have heard Max Keiser repeatedly say if he was going to put money on the markets to crash (which it will do eventually as it is designed to) it would be April! He said something along the lines of "The banks last quarter numbers are the key thing to watch, basically Aprils (quarter numbers) are going to have a glaring hole in the middle then the rest of the cards will fall".

As the post stated bonds/shorts etc are being sold 9 to 1! (Which i believe is a sign of panic).

Paul Craig Roberts also said "I think this will be caused by a number of things that WILL eventually lead America to war, such as the debt ceiling (which Benanke & Co want to raise to infinity), QE4, inflation and the crash itself will spark panic in the streets, hence the reason of getting rid of guns so quickly. The day this happens i expect something to happen immediately in Israel (as it will be Americas last attempt to save the dollar that's when the game begins)"

Personally i trust these 2 they know what they are talking about and if i had that kind of money i would be putting money on it myself! If the buyer comes out as a big name player such as Soros then say goodbye to America as you once knew it.

THE GAME IS RIGGED! (I will be watching the thread closely, lets just wait and see).

Please watch this and it will explain a few things discussed (Max Keiser talking TODAY on RT thanks.)

www.youtube.com...

Originally posted by stevesy

Originally posted by tide88
reply to post by hawkiye

 

Hey bought options, he can sell those options at any time before the 60 day strike date. If the market were to have one bad day he could make an easy 20-50% in one day. With the market at all time highs, there will likely be a pullback or multiple pullbacks in the next month.

It probably is a hedge fund and they probably will double their money.

He made a call spread buy....

Bought calls at 20 and sold calls at 25. He doesn't even break even until it hits 20. However, he could be rolling something over but then that's a huge move all at one time. It just looks odd is all. As if the trader knew something was coming in April. The trade only makes big money close to expiration. Just my two cents.

My bad...he made a bull put spread. Same difference except he receives the credit upfront. The risk or breakeven for the call spread must of been a little more so he chose the put instead.

I believe he's correct. Many billionaires are dumping stocks, including our favorite, Soros. A leading economist is saying a possible 90% correction is coming. It sure seems that SOMETHING HUGE is coming our way if all of these billionaires are dumping stocks VERY quickly.

Check it out. I hope I can include a link here. If I can't, just Google "billionaires dumping stocks," or, "Soros, Buffett, John Paulson and Robert Wiedemer."

When you read the article, check out the staggering number of stocks that these people dumped. Staggering!

www.moneynews.com...

Originally posted by zedVSzardoz
reply to post by hawkiye

 

I would remind everyone how appearing to have "inside knowledge" can be used to make everyone panic and so dump all they are worth. Then the same person making the artificial panic buys it all up.

Happened in England after Napoleon was defeated and they thought he had won......

exactly....11 million is nothing to risk when the gains are far greater if everybody else goes against that.

reply to post by hawkiye


Everyone paying attention to the happenings in the world expect something to happen soon.
This person just has the $ and the know how to try and take advantage of it. (And balls/ maybe, if he has $500 million he's only risking a little over 2%) An article I read today says:
"The European Union may split, the euro may be in trouble," the 59-year-old said, adding that the bloc would be threatened by division in May.
Hong Kong astrologer Chow Hon-ming said a disharmonious May would see an ongoing dispute between Japan and China possibly escalate into a "brief" war, as two "snakes" are going to clash according to his reading of the Chinese almanac.
"May is known as the 'snake month' and it's the Year of the Snake so between May 5 and June 6, these two snakes will meet.
Maybe he bought 30 days to early. Here is a link to the article, very interesting...

iphone.france24.com...

Originally posted by Zarniwoop
reply to post by hawkiye

 

The other thing people seem to be ignoring is that there are more then one of these bets and corporate insiders are dumping stocks at 9 times the usual rate as I posted in my second post to this thread. This corroborates the OP So now we have several indicators that insiders are expecting a crash.

Corporate insiders sell their positions (mostly stock options) in their own companies when their stocks are high so they can take profits... that's how its works. It is not an indication of a an impending market crash. Neither is an 11 million dollar bet that the market will go lower in the next 60 days. It doesn't mean people think the market is going to crash, but rather that it will go lower than it is now. That's a fair bet in my opinion.

It's an indication when they sell them at 9 times the normal rate....

reply to post by hawkiye

It's an indication when they sell them at 9 times the normal rate....

Which is an indication that the market is at its all time high... The logic is there... It's your choice to accept it.

ETA:: Have you ever received stock options and have you ever sold them? With the market like it is right now, I'd expect it to be more like 20 times the normal rate.

Originally posted by Merinda
There are people whom piss away that kind of money at roulet on a regular basis. 11 Billion, oh yes you must be very confident. 11 Million? In the world of high finance, meh.

I wish someone would piss even 10% of that my way.

This is most likely a hedge by a major firm. They probably have way to much risk as far as volatility. I would guess their Vega must be insane. Judging by the size of the postion, they must be in danger of being wiped out with a spike in Volatility.

Originally posted by Zarniwoop
reply to post by hawkiye

 

It's an indication when they sell them at 9 times the normal rate....

Which is an indication that the market is at its all time high... The logic is there... It's your choice to accept it.

What logic? The market at all time highs is another indication it may crash. Every time it crashed historically it was in or near record highs.

reply to post by hawkiye

What logic? The market at all time highs is another indication it may crash. Every time it crashed historically it was in in or near record highs.

I'm starting to think that you yourself have a short position... and for this reason... I'm out.

Originally posted by Zarniwoop
reply to post by hawkiye

 

What logic? The market at all time highs is another indication it may crash. Every time it crashed historically it was in in or near record highs.

I'm starting to think that you yourself have a short position... and for this reason... I'm out.

Yeah right and I am posting on ATS to try and move the markets... Sigh

Y'know what I figure?

Keep your eye on Goldman Sachs. They're always way out ahead of this sh**. Oh wait -- you can't keep your eye on Goldman Sachs because they play it all so close no outsiders (and by "outsiders," I mean the common run of humanity to which most of us belong) can even get a glimmer of what's coming down.

In fact, I wouldn't be surprised to learn that it was some arm of GS that made this 11.5mil bet in the first place. That would be very small potatoes for them.

reply to post by zedVSzardoz


Isnt that how The House of Roth got control of England?

reply to post by hawkiye


The stock markets are played by fools and corrupt asshats...instability and chaos is inherent to the stock market. I don't understand why people allow Wall Street to mean much to them.

Employment and the well being of people ie: food, clothing, shelter, those are the things you and I should be happy to have, and know that at this point in our civilization, will most likely be secure for some time.

Maybe we should just eliminate the stock market

reply to post by hawkiye


I think only the rich needto worry, Impoor either way, and I just got a job makin a grand a week, so the economy probably will crash since I finally got a good job.