The China vs. US war is BS. It will never happen, unless others start it.

reply to post by Tuttle


I get your point and don't particularly disagree with it. YET, in either a nuclear or non-nuclear confrontation, China ceases as a nation.

Interenal collapse, re non-nuclear....36 or 37 different languages in-country...all add up to smaller regional "countries" much like pre-Mao days, military juntas, warlords, so on. No invasion necessary. Just collapse rendering the current "China" into the history books.( Best case scenario)

Nuclear? China ends up a parking lot. Period. Perhaps internal collapse in the U.S. similar to China's... Still lots of resources, foods and fuels...eventual recovery, at least of some form.

Agreed no "winners". Just one real bad loser. I believe they know it.

It was somewhere around last summer, I believe, when the head honch of the Chinese military was taken on a "tour" of some of our more "sensitive" military facilities. Stuff thee and me will never get to see. He stated pretty strongly that China could not match the U.S.'s technology, militarily.

At first, I thought that it was a dumb idea showing him what we were capable of. Not any more. If they are nuts enough to try it, better soon while we still have the edge, than later and we both get flattened.....

Originally posted by Tuttle
China and America are very much in the same situation now, it may never happen, but it might, history shows us, it is more than likely. Hopefully it wont, but we just dont know.

The thing history has shown us most is that countries evolve into other entities with time.

China and America could have a completely different face in 20 years.

One could become a Republic and the other could turn into an Empire.

reply to post by nwtrucker


The only way China could reasonably be defeated if Russia were somehow coerced into invading Manchuria, much in the same way they did during World War II, effectively forcing Japan to surrender.

Im not too sure about regional instability in China, is it a problem?, you could only expect a country evolving from imperial governance is going to have problems, especial when both republican and communist elements are vying for control. Since then however, has there really been any alarming internal conflicts of note?, thats been what 60-70 years ago?, thats a lifetime for most.

One could become a Republic and the other could turn into an Empire.

I thought one has already done both

America?

The odds of China starting a war are slim at best. They are being held up with their economy and any military action that results in sanctions would absolutely destroy them.

Any gain they would get from a military action would be offset by what they lose economically so they won't go to all out war. They also cannot transport their troops effectively which means that only neighboring countries are at risk.

Bascially China could not invade Africa with a military force. They may try to secure resources in the pacific but won't push it beyond the point where shooting will start which is why we sent the majority of our Navy over there.

reply to post by Spookycolt


I quite agree.

What it really boils down to is logistics.
China does not have that capacity yet, though they are attempting to rectify that.

But the US currently does. The US does not need independant contractors, though they still use them.

reply to post by TDawgRex


By the very fact it does use them denotes it does need them?, the American Empire still commands tens of thousands of mercenaries in Iraq, with the pentagons budget running into the billions for hiring and supporting such mercenary companies.

Of course the true extent to there operations and logistics will never be known.

And im also pretty sure the British Empire, Germany and Astro Hungarian Empire did not seek to actualy plunge the world into a nightmare hell world of industrial scale slaughter never before seen. But you know, look how that turned out.

reply to post by Tuttle


I suppose it comes down to what you consider "defeat".

All that is needed is a China rendered ineffective as a major military power. no need for them to cry "uncle".

Here's a scenario for you, pre-emptive E-Bomb hits on China's 20-30 ICBMs. ( Enough ABMs state-side to counter the remainder).

With the nuclear option curtailed, a carrier picket outside the range of China's formindable anti-ship missiles. 650-800 miles, blocking imports of oil/raw resources and food plus blocking exports.

Surgical strikes against dams, railroad bridges via stealth platforms, F-117s and F-22s, destroying the ability to move food to the population centers. A week or so should do.

Sit back and wait. 30, maybe 60 days later, mass starvation and riots amongst the civilian population resulting in a infrastructure and political collapse.

Rendered "inefective". Not invaded or conquered. The house of cards goes down.

Best case scenario, of course. The point is "defeated"/conquered isn't necessary. The current military is capable of this.

Again, China is aware of it. So it probably isn't needed.

If you want peace...prepare for war. Answer their near weekly tirades and threats with a yawn and a "go for it".

These aren't stupid people, even if their not really our friends. They see what they've been doing is more profitable, more destructive than any martial actions they can take....for now.

China at war with the USA is a very real scenario in the future, maybe 10/20 years.
What China needs to achieve is nuclear parity liked the Soviet did in the early 80's.
China is a far stronger economy than the Soviet ever be and in a few years could even out spend the defense budget of USA since their present defense budget is paid for by the USA anyway.

reply to post by mypan


Even more worrisome with their huge economy is the ablilty to spend a far larger amount on some specific program that would give them a big technological edge without the restrictions of oversite committees and opposition parties.

They can pretty much spent what they want, where they want, when they want. That's a huge advantage.

The OP is correct in that 10-20 years seems the earliest without some unforeseen internal event. Outside nations probably couldn't cause it if the US and China didn't want it to happen.

England recently gave the Philippines +$1 Billion for the oil/gas under that little island between China/Philippines that the Philippines is now claiming.


Fighting could start over that.

If Israel/US attack Iran, China will attack. They will not lose their oil supply from Iran.

China's been running the Panama Canal for awhile. They can destroy it stopping the US Navy from getting ships to the Pacific quickly. Whatever's in the Pacific could be decimated by the Chinese....Guam lost...US pushed back to Hawaii or California.

Why do you think an Australian General was just put in as 2nd in Command of US Army PAcific? Technicality so the nukes now in Australia are under his control???....to appease the Aussie politicians and to avoid the "Non-Proliferation Treaties". ????

There's an Australian in charge of the US Army in the Pacific now....shooting's getting close.[


The unarmed white folk in Australia are going to get exterminated.....too bad they don't own guns.

reply to post by Pervius


I think your scenario of a US/Isreali attack of Iran is incorrect. Any attack on Iran would be surgical. Aimed at nuclear facilities. It might even go so far as assuring China the oil supply won't be cut.

The Panama canal was given up because it's indefensable. It can be taken out from either ocean with conventional cruise missles. Also, our Nimitz class carriers are too wide to use the canal, so they've been going the scenic route for quite a while now. Unless it's a single ship, the canal isn't used by the U.S. Navy as the "battle groups" head south.

China isn't the only one who can take out the canal either. We built it, we can take it out as well. China would have to go south as well, if they had a "navy".....

Originally posted by TDawgRex
The China vs. US war is BS. It will never happen, unless others start it.

'China, Japan On The Brink'

"What the Americans and the Japanese fear is that we will catch up with them, which is why they exhaust every possible means to suppress China's development," wrote Gen Liu. "We should not fall into their trap."

Very true. Let's see how long cooler heads can prevail for...

reply to post by concernedcitizen519


Garbage!! We have done nothing to "suppress" China. We've made them freeking rich. We've given the communists a means to stay in power and enjoy the fruits of our lack of spine.

They continue to steal intellectual properties, they manipulate their own currency to maintain dominance in production/manufacture. They export military technology to our enemies, threaten us with war every couple of weeks. Committ cyber attacks almost daily.

We, in turn, train their people in out technologies, our business practices, so on, in our universities and send them home to use as much against us as to help themselves.

"Exhaust every means of suppression"?? What a hoot.

How about telling them to burn their U.S.treasury bonds. That we default them, and only them. How about a 50% tariff on manufactured goods from China bound for the U.S.???

"Exhaust" them?? Haven't even tried to "suppress" them.

reply to post by TDawgRex


China won't war with the US, because it'd be destroying its best customer!

The US won't war with China, because it's like blowing up the bank where all your money is.

Instead, what will happen is that the US will allow the Middle East to pump out all of its oil, while the US sits on the largest reserves of oil out of anyone.

Then, once the Middle Eastern sources are running dry...the US will relax restrictions, build refineries like mad, and then quickly pay off Chinese debt, while simultaneously becoming the number one oil producer in the world, and, just by waiting, will become the last remaining superpower.

At least, that's why I HOPE the US is sitting on its deposits, and doing nothing to refine them.

Originally posted by Gazrok
reply to post by TDawgRex

 

China won't war with the US, because it'd be destroying its best customer!

The US won't war with China, because it's like blowing up the bank where all your money is.

Instead, what will happen is that the US will allow the Middle East to pump out all of its oil, while the US sits on the largest reserves of oil out of anyone.

Then, once the Middle Eastern sources are running dry...the US will relax restrictions, build refineries like mad, and then quickly pay off Chinese debt, while simultaneously becoming the number one oil producer in the world, and, just by waiting, will become the last remaining superpower.

At least, that's why I HOPE the US is sitting on its deposits, and doing nothing to refine them.

I have posited that theory for years to my friends and family. But it is like a game of mondo chess. One wrong move and you do not reap any return.

And niether does anyone else.