Confounding Sequence of Big Quakes Rattle Santa Cruz Islands

Originally posted by TrueAmerican
Jesus, that after shock was a 6.4- ON THE OTHER SIDE OF THE ZONE:

I'm definitely worried for that area folks, this could get real nasty...

so, are you thinking we are looking at something bigger than the 8.0!?! I hope not, much like Samoa in 2009, those island villages are definitely not equipped for this stuff. I'm north east coast of Australia (although, 20km inland) but the amount of flooding and tornados they've dealt with in the last two Weeks, a tsunami would not be welcome. (not that they ever are, but you know what I mean) - I shall be watching this thread like a hawk.

>>>>>OMG. Yup, looks like it's getting ready to tear to hell:



That is clear rupture impending.

LOOKOUT, Tellin yas...

reply to post by TrueAmerican


Is that because the newer quakes are spreading further along? What's the significance of it hopping over the line too? Can you give us a gut magnitude of what you think you could see happening?

reply to post by TrueAmerican


Making me nervous TA.

And now look, a 6.6 north of there:


That whole damn area is letting loose...bad bad BAD.

They say you can't predict earthquakes, but tell ya what, right about now if Those country seismologists in Aussie and such aren't issuing the warning of their lives, they ought to be fired. That zone is destabilizing. And we could be looking at an upcoming 9+ in the next hours or days. Could be a week. But seriously...

I mean come on. The pattern of foreshocks was clearly out of the norm, and look what happened. I've been documenting it this whole entire thread. So get up off yer butts, and make some phone calls to start getting coasts evacuated just in case. NOW.

(don't mind lil ole me...I ain't got a clue).

reply to post by TrueAmerican


You certainly did see it coming TA.

edit bad info

I had a feeling this was going to happen.

I've only been checking USGS this past week just to see the status of Santa Cruz. It's interesting how we have all this data to study how it all went down.

Fearing that something larger than the 8 might be coming.

WOw, scary to see things go up like that, usually the first few let off the major pressure and then the rest get smaller right???

Plus even with after shocks etc, aren't they usually in the same spot????

Has anyone seen anything like this before at ALL??

I am kinda stunned and clueless what to think.

Originally posted by mellisamouse
Plus even with after shocks etc, aren't they usually in the same spot????

Precisely my point. Now some would argue of course that aftershock patterns can be all over the place, cause we did see that in Japan. But we saw that AFTER the big one.

This case was different in that the quakes were too big and too close to the max mag of the biggest one, which I have been pointing out in the thread. This is still unusual for a swarm type sequence to culminate in an 8.0. There was a low probability, in theory, but in actuality the pattern and size and location did seem to forecast it somewhat.

I was totally wrong on the situation up in Cascadia though...so far... So I still don't know a damn thing more than anyone else. I just happened to be correct in this case. That's about it. And it could stop here, with a few more aftershocks, and no bigger quake. But what I don't like is how far away many of these aftershocks are occurring from the main 8.0. And I don't like where they are located relative to the zone line. This is why I suspect we could see a bigger one. Or even several bigger ones.

reply to post by TrueAmerican


Say your concern occurs, and several more 8's and a 9 or two hit. Besides knocking the islands for a loop, what is the worst case scenerio for populated areas? If the entire section lets loose, what happens? Should some of the islands in the area be evacuated. Thanks, and you called this one and gave me, for one, a very interesting real time experience with your updates.

reply to post by TrueAmerican


TA...question about the depths.

Is it normal for the same area to be having quakes at differing depths like this?

Originally posted by timetothink
reply to post by TrueAmerican

 

TA...question about the depths.

Is it normal for the same area to be having quakes at differing depths like this?

I was wondering the same, but it looks as though USGS is revising the depth of the 8.0
to something like 28 as opposed to 5.8.

reply to post by Yngvarr


So that would have them differing from about 10 to 20 or 30.

Doesn't seem as strange.

Originally posted by timetothink
reply to post by Yngvarr

 

So that would have them differing from about 10 to 20 or 30.

Doesn't seem as strange.

I'm looking at the list on USGS right now and the depths are still wildly varying.
I'm seeing them as shallow as 9.9 to as deep as 38.

Maybe they still need to get the numbers straightened out

Okay TA....I see your point. Especially that 6.4 SW of the 8.0, on the other side of the fracture. There may be some arguement for calling that one a possible foreshock vs aftershock.

reply to post by Aleister


Well worst case, umm...lol, don't even get me started...cause then we'd be talking...well...just go read a little the very thread in my sig and get you some popcorn...

But that's extreme, no doubt. Worst case here, and what I am alerting for, is that a major rupture could occur, causing a 9+ quake. Question is, due to fault length, is there a long enough fault there to generate a quake that big in the Solomon Islands?

At over 4,000 km long, you better believe it. Yes, there is. But so far, they seem to be confined to a 300 km squake area. This is latest update on aftershock(?) patterns:


I am anxious to see if these aftershocks keep spreading away from this area, near the zone...

Holy flip, this thread was started 4 days ago???

Ats is ahead of the game, good eye!

I feel like it might not be over I dunno, it looks so weird, like what if it turns out to be one of those giant sink hole things but wayyyyyy out there????

that would not be good, tsunami wise...

Forgive my ignorance here, but is the general area of the Sana Cruz Islands populated? I know about the surrounding islands, but I was curious about the direct area. Regardless, those poor people that live within a certain area of this and those that live close to the coast. I hope this is able to keep releasing pressure without causing too much damage or a major tsunami.