reply to post by TheProphetMark
Hey man, your post concerned me a little so perhaps I can be of assistance here. I'm sure Phage will be along shortly to help quell some of the
hysteria involving DA14, is he is better versed in orbital mechanics, and seems to be our ATS Anti-Hysteria King.
DA14 is slated to miss Earth by quite a ways, now I know when we look at orbital projections from NASA much is above the average man, including myself
in many regards. I do not understand, nor claim to know the physics, and maths involved in calculating it's trajectory, but I can assure you DA 14 is
going to miss.
This is from the Wiki.
2012 DA14 is a near earth asteroid with an estimated diameter of about 45 meters (148 ft) and an estimated mass of about 130,000 metric tons.
It was discovered on February 23, 2012, by the OAM Observatory, La Sagra in Spain (J75) seven days after passing 0.0174 AU (2,600,000 km; 1,620,000
mi) from Earth on February 16. Calculations show that on February 15, 2013, the distance between the asteroid and Earth will be 0.000228 AU (34,100
km; 21,200 mi).
A lot of confusion with celestial bodies comes with the use of Astronomical units, of which there are many. It can be quite easy to see, 0.000228 AU
and freak out, because here on earth outside of Astronomy, astronomical measurements and physics this means absolutely nothing to the average man, and
is incredibly hard to make an accurate judgement from any measurement we would use on a daily basis. 1 AU is the distance from the earth to the sun,
or 149,597,870.700 kilometres (92,955,807.273 mi). So when we see the measurement 1 AU we may panic, especially when that figure is a decimal there
Another common unit of measurement used with NEA's anyways is 1 LD, which is the distance from earth to the moon or 384,400 km, (238,900 mi). Again,
seeing 1 LD frightens those that are not familiar with the term, as well again, decimal places lesser than 1 tend to frighten those unfamiliar with
Another problem we often see is the misconception these measurements are one and the same. Someone sees something listed as 1.3 LD on a table, looks
up the meaning or conversion, and then sees lower on the chart lower .00009 AU, thinking the terms are inter-changeable they assume this means that
celestial body is of some threat to their livelihoods.
Now as far as the calculation being wrong, don't even begin to think that. DA14 was discovered a year ago, and has been tracked, and observed every
day since. The calculations are run hundreds of times a day, with corrections, and variables being tested equally. At this time DA-14 is expected to
pass 22, 500 kms from earth. Now this is close yes, there are those that claim this is the closest pass in recorded history( asteroids have hit earth,
asteroids have bounced off the atmosphere, others have burned up in the atmosphere, so I don't believe that, but even still). How ever, 22, 500km
puts a 45meter DA-14 sailing right on by. Even if the calculations are off by a few percent, the object is not of significant size to make a
IF DA-14 2012, were to enter our atmosphere(which it will not), it would burn up quite quickly, likely exploding so high above the ground, those
beneath it would be completely unaware of it's existence. Very little to no effect would be felt on the ground, aside from a possible distant boom if
you're lucky. If the object were to enter at night time, you may get what would look like any of the meteors we love to watch at any of the frequent
meteor showers we observe. During the day, it would not be impressive how ever.
The object is not of sufficient size, to survive entry of the atmosphere at it's velocity, as well it is very unlikely it would survive to the lower
atmosphere any larger than a pea. At those speeds the very Air you breath is the greatest protection against objects of this size.
Keep in mind there are plenty of predictions online of years past of exactly what you speak, and as of yet not one has come true. There have been
other NEA's, other events of objects making contact with out the sensationalism provided for DA-14. I witnessed dozens of meteors in the shower in
December that actually entered our atmosphere, as did many thousands of others the world alike. Please don't panic. Da-14 is nothing, and it's also
nice to keep in mind there is more water on this earth than land. You are more likely to be hit by lightning that day than DA-14 is to cause a
As well, I might add. No, it will not be visible in the sky to the naked eye, no your average telescope or binoculars are not likely to see it. it's
45 meters, at 22, 500 km away. The International space station is roughly 402 km (250 mi) - 424 km (263 mi) above our heads for comparison and it's
dimensions are; Length 72.8m Width 108.5 m Height 20m.