Sandy Hook Shadow Analysis

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posted on Jan, 24 2013 @ 10:53 PM
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I came across a YouTube video called
Sandy Hook HOAX - PROOF the "Evacuation" Was Staged
which claims that the Newtown Bee photos of the kids evacuated from the school were taken at a later time of the day after the raw helicopter footage was recorded which made me wonder, so I did my own shadow analysis and will post my findings below.

First the YT video, the shadow analysis of the YouTuber is in the first 2 minutes.

The Newtown Bee reporter however said the photos were taken at 10:09 am, see the article

The Story Behind the Iconic Photograph from Sandy Hook

But what is true?

I found the shadow analysis of the YT video is flawed and that the statement of the Newtown Bee Reporter that the photos were taken at 10:09 am almost at the minute to be exact.

I also did a shadow analysis with some other pictures of the school and will show how I did it so that everybody interested can easily estimate the time when a picture was taken at the shool by himself.

The 2nd pic below has a shadow which is parallel to the writing on the asphalt ("DROP OFF"), I have drawn the direction of the shadow again in the 1st pic below which is from Google Maps. Then I superimposed a 24 hour clock and it shows the direction of the shadow at 10:20 am (sun time).
The time must be corrected by the difference between the local time (where the sun is) and the time of the time zone where Newtown CT is located.

There are 24 time zones on the earth, so approx. every 15 degree there is a new time zone (360 degree / 24 hours). Newtown CT is located at 73.3035° W. If Newtown was 75° W (75=5*15) then there would be no time difference between the sun time and the time of the time zone. Every degree difference results in a time error of 4 minutes (4=60/15), so the sun time in Newtown CT is approx. 10 minutes off, i. e. when the sun time is 11:00 am then the time of the time zone is 10:50 am.

Now we can estimate the time when the photo was taken at around 10:10 am (time of the time zone). This is a very good match to the time 10:09 am which the Newtown Bee reporter said the photos were taken.

Someone might wonder that there seems to be a contradiction because the shadow at the wall (shown with a red arrow in some pics) is higher in the pictures at noon than in the pictures of the evacuation (this was the reasoning of the YouTuber). But this is perfectly fine, because the sun not only goes higher at noon but it also goes from east to south, which makes this shadow at the wall move in the way it does.

Below are the pictures of my shadow analysis, the times which I estimated are
10:10 am, 10:10 am, 11:00 am, 11:20 am, 12:20 am,
all with an error of about 15 minutes.




pic below is from raw helicopter footage


pic below is from aerial wide view www.collegian.com...

edit on 25-1-2013 by Marlow because: (no reason given)




posted on Jan, 24 2013 @ 11:00 PM
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Funny, you'd think such a sleuth would be raking in the moola in a court of law astonishing everyone with their uncanny ability to deduce facts, dear watson.

But... it's all going to waste..



posted on Jan, 24 2013 @ 11:03 PM
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If I might make a serious and sincere suggestion. Get a program that does 3 dimensional modeling like After Effects trial version or perhaps a free animation program that supports 3-D lighting with enough power to let you move the lights around and see the effects in real time in design mode. Recreating the breezeway, building behind it and angle with some obstacles to block the view like those cars is easy enough since it's all simply squares and rectangles placed in different ways.

I know what you'll find after a semester of animation classes before I left the graphics design program for my major now at school. Both shadows are consistent and the cars block the difference from being readily apparent on the early one. The shadow and angle on the wall is the length and width of the breezeway, given the position of the sun and other shadows to show angle.

I don't expect some to believe that without actually seeing it with a little sim and their own control of a light source though...which is why I suggest the above. Even many 3-d shooter type games come with map making utilities and the map maker can 3-d model with real time moving light sources to see the effect. Obviously, I don't support the theory as presented....but I thought it important to explain why.



posted on Jan, 25 2013 @ 09:54 PM
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reply to post by Wrabbit2000
 


Okay, I spend almost a whole day today to generate some 3D stuff. Here is a pic I created of the shadow at the wall and the floor at all times between 10:15 am and 01:00 pm:

And here are some more side by side images. I think this should be proof enough.



The building is not exactly in north-south orientation, but rotated by an angle of 33 degree.

The math was a bit work to do, especially the calculation of the trajectory of the sun (I was using 41.4140° N for Newtown CT, and the data from here en.wikipedia.org...).
So if someone wants to create this with another program or wants to check my calculation I provide here the coordinates of the sun direction depending on the time:

Sun direction at 10:15 (0.4063099933451098,-0.8412943133337555,0.3565614500477888)
Sun direction at 10:30 (0.35155342290169606,-0.857705927790281,0.3751676055838438)
Sun direction at 10:45 (0.29529144673567015,-0.8717134235881047,0.39104816662536673)
Sun direction at 11:00 (0.2377649872659207,-0.8832568184798874,0.40413513017210484)
Sun direction at 11:15 (0.17922038162295653,-0.8922866818766412,0.41437245583713184)
Sun direction at 11:30 (0.11990832679549976,-0.8987643465170996,0.4217163058203876)
Sun direction at 11:45 (0.06008280610749397,-0.9026620740468665,0.4261352326288669)
Sun direction at 12:00 (1.6225203502673332e-9,-0.9039631737983076,0.42761031373961356)
Sun direction at 12:15 (-0.06008280286712363,-0.9026620742625513,0.426135232628867)
Sun direction at 12:30 (-0.11990832356912208,-0.8987643469475456,0.42171630582038744)
Sun direction at 12:45 (-0.17922037841983204,-0.8922866825200052,0.41437245583713184)
Sun direction at 13:00 (-0.23776498409521124,-0.8832568193334145,0.4041351301721049)

Note that the time here is not the time of the time zone but the local sun time, so just subtract 10 minutes to get the time of the time zone.
edit on 25-1-2013 by Marlow because: (no reason given)



posted on Jan, 26 2013 @ 03:35 AM
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All this 3d stuff and hours of research yet hardly any responses.

Thank God. Ats is coming back to earth.



posted on Jan, 26 2013 @ 07:30 PM
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Today I analysed the shadow of the "wood chasing".
Surprisingly, this was not in the morning shortly after the alleged shooting but

it was at 12:20 (plus/minus 20 minutes).

Here is again the video:

And here my shadow analysis:





Was the chasing in the woods at 12:20 then just a part of the drill?
This could never have been before the evacuation (which took place at around 10:15)
because at 10:30 the shed was still within the shadow of the school building.

edit on 26-1-2013 by Marlow because: (no reason given)



posted on Jan, 26 2013 @ 09:04 PM
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reply to post by Marlow
 


relying on nature to provide the facts..

so simple..yet so genius.



posted on Jan, 26 2013 @ 09:20 PM
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Wow Marlow, very nice.
I know this is a lot of work as I was trying to verify the time on some pictures today too.
My system is very crude - using a protractor on the screen,
I'm very old school.
Anyways awesome there's programs to give you azimuth and shadow length and direction.
Are there ways to account for foreshortening of objects when trying to determine height?
When it comes to math I'm a total flop but geometry came easy.

Why didn't the chopper film the kids?
There was one in the sky all day.......
They miss the big event.
C'mon.

Would you be willing to help me figure the time on some footage?



posted on Jan, 26 2013 @ 09:25 PM
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I could mention the person we know who evacuated, but that would make me part of the conspiracy I guess

don't believe me ? check my ip adress than google bethel and check the proximity to SH

then get a life



posted on Jan, 26 2013 @ 09:26 PM
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reply to post by Marlow
 


I gave up trying to figure out when the chopper shot the woods footage
Since it cuts away after the chase from the school we cannot assume they were sequential.
In fact that would be really interesting if they were from very differnt times.
Btw - I found 6 people in the chase scene.
They keep popping out of the trees.

I couldn't measure the length of the shadow
Nor could I determine true North.
Did you try to use that arrest footage at all to figure out the time?

I hope people won't clutter up this thread with a lot of OT and stick to the subject of the OP.
edit on 26-1-2013 by Asktheanimals because: (no reason given)



posted on Jan, 26 2013 @ 09:39 PM
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reply to post by Asktheanimals
 

I calculated the time when the two guys run into the woods to be 12:20 (plus/minus 20 minutes) see my posting above. The footage of the video seems to be continuous, so the arrest in the woods is only a few minutes later.
If you have other footage where you want to know the time then you can do the following:
If the wall of the school building is visible then compare the shadow with the image from my second posting (note that you must subtract 10 minutes, because the time in the image is the local sun time and not the time of the time zone). Here is the image again:

Otherwise you could just post a link to the image or video here and I will try to estimate the time if possible.

Edit: I just watched the video again and at 00:42 there is a cut, but I think the footage after the cut is just shortly after because the footage is also zoomed in, maybe the operator had to do something at the recording camera and this caused the cut.

Edit 2: Why didn't the chopper film the kids?
The chopper arrived around 11:00 am (see my first posting), the photos of the Newtown Bee photographer of 2 groups of kids were taken around 10:15. Maybe at 11:00 already all kids had been evacuated.
edit on 26-1-2013 by Marlow because: (no reason given)



posted on Jan, 26 2013 @ 11:56 PM
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I found another YouTuber (Pat Jack) who seems to do serious shadow analysis.
According to Pat Jack the following video starts at 10:25 am.
Please stop the video at 04:58 this should be at 10:30 am according to the analysis of the YouTuber.

Notice the man passing the "DROP OFF" on the asphalt, this shadow can be compared to the shadow of the Newtown Bee photo (see my first posting) which I estimated to be taken at around 10:15 am.

The shadow in the video is at another "DROP OFF" (closer to the fire house) and is a little bit more turned to the right than the "DROP OFF" in the Newtown Bee photo, so the two times might be 20 minutes apart, approximatelly. The Newtown Bee photo was taken just about 20 minutes earlier.
So I think this is a good confirmation for me and also for Pat Jack that we both came independently with different methods to almost the same result.

Edit: I checked the time in the video at 04:58 with my simple "24 hour clock" method and it gave me 10:45 am (local sun time) which is about 10:35 am (time of the time zone).
Note that I used always a rounded value of 10 minutes for the difference of the 2 times, the exact value would be 4*(75-73.3035)=6,786 minutes difference, the YouTuber uses 6 minutes for the time difference (but he also claims to be accurate to 4 minutes what I do not claim for my results).
edit on 27-1-2013 by Marlow because: (no reason given)



posted on Jan, 27 2013 @ 05:29 PM
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I rechecked and compared my calculation today with the values of the YouTuber Pat Jack. In his videos he said that he used this Java applet here www.jgiesen.de... for calculating the time of day from the direction of the shadow.


There I noticed that there is still another correction term which I did not take into consideration before, the value of the Equation of time which brings another 5 minutes difference between the local sun time and the time zone time at this particular day. So the correct time difference is 6,786 minutes plus 5 minutes which is about 12 minutes, this means the sun was exactly at south at 11:48. In my first 3 postings I used a value of 10 minutes for the time difference (to get round numbers), but if you want to do it more precise then use 12 minutes.

I compared my calculated values with the values of the Java applet and they match, so this gives me again more confidence that my shadow analysis is correct:

time. | Java | local
zone. | appl.| solar | my own| 24 hour clock
time. | calc.| time. | calc. | approximation

11:48 | 00.0 | 12:00 | 00.00 | 00.00
12:03 | 03.8 | 12:15 | 03.81 | 03.75
12:18 | 07.6 | 12:30 | 07.60 | 07.50
12:33 | 11.3 | 12:45 | 11.36 | 11.25
12:48 | 15.0 | 13:00 | 15.07 | 15.00
13:03 | 18.7 | 13:15 | 18.71 | 18.75
13:18 | 22.2 | 13:30 | 22.29 | 22.50
13:33 | 25.7 | 13:45 | 25.78 | 26.25
13:48 | 29.1 | 14:00 | 29.18 | 30.00
14:03 | 32.4 | 14:15 | 32.49 | 33.75
14:18 | 35.6 | 14:30 | 35.70 | 37.50
14:33 | 38.8 | 14:45 | 38.81 | 41.25
14:48 | 41.8 | 15:00 | 41.82 | 45.00

For times between 10:00 am and 01:30 pm it is also possible to use the 24 hour clock approximation, the error is then smaller than 0.5 degree. Thats pretty straight forward:
- find a photo or video footage with shadow (on plain ground) and its location
- go to Google maps and take a screenshot of the same location
- draw a straight line on the Google maps image where the shadow is
- superimpose a 24 hour clock on the image so that the center of the clock is on the shadow line
- read the time where the shadow line crosses the circumference of the 24 hour clock
- subtract 12 minutes from the time
edit on 27-1-2013 by Marlow because: (no reason given)



posted on Jan, 27 2013 @ 09:44 PM
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There is something interesting in the video above at 01:27:


What did Gene say how long he was with the kids in his house?

Edit: Here it is reported that he stayed with the kids for hours:


Rosen took the four girls and two boys into his home, and over the next few hours gave them toys, listened to their stories and called their frantic parents.

www.dailymail.co.uk...
edit on 27-1-2013 by Marlow because: (no reason given)



posted on Jan, 28 2013 @ 03:02 AM
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Good thread. I saw the 10 minute helicopter footage yesterday and was going to post it when I found your thread. I think the 10 minute heli video makes very interesting viewing.
It really doesn't look like how I'm used to scene a major shooting crime scene. Its a million miles away from the Columbine footage and just looks odd.
No kids, no bodies, no urgency, no-one being hysterical, no-one smoking (it being a super stressful situation I would expect to see some 'puffers'), a seemingly lack of forensics and police and emergency services around the school.

edit on 28-1-2013 by manmental because: spellink



posted on Jan, 29 2013 @ 12:15 AM
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Bit quiet around here.



posted on Jan, 29 2013 @ 01:04 AM
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reply to post by Marlow
 
I don't know if his story matches up, but after seeing that HD video... It's certainly him. The camera pans all the way out and back in when he enters the scene.



posted on Jan, 29 2013 @ 12:00 PM
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reply to post by manmental
 


I wondered the same thing - this was a no-smoking disaster scene? Only a very few people seem visibly upset and most are milling about like a flock of pigeons.
At any rate, I'm trying to separate the men taken in custody that day and one of them Chris Manfredonia was said to have been taken in to custody. I don't think he's the "guy brought out of the woods". He was supposedly taken in to custody on the school grounds.
I found what I believe to be a picture of Manfredonia on that day. Oddly, the only other pictures online of him they all show him wearing the same pants and sweater.

What's your best guess as to the time Marlow?




posted on Jan, 29 2013 @ 05:07 PM
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reply to post by Asktheanimals
 


The time of the pic is 2:30 pm (time of time zone) plus/minus 10 minutes.
The shadow is 5 degree to the east from the wall and the wall is 33 degree to the east (from north),
so the sun itself is 38 degree to the west (from south). Here is how I got the 5 degree angle:

This was a bit tricky, because the original pic had first to be rotated and stretched in the right way (depending on some math calculations).
After that it is easy to get the time, either by estimating the time from the table in my posting above
14:33 | 38.8 | 14:45 | 38.81 | 41.25
or by using the Java applet, which gave at 14:30 a "Current Azimuth" of 218.1 degree (=180+38.1)
edit on 29-1-2013 by Marlow because: (no reason given)



posted on Jan, 29 2013 @ 05:44 PM
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reply to post by Marlow
 


Excellent. I couldn't find the larger image. Going on the shadow length alone it either had to be early morning (too early) or afternoon. You pegged it. Thanks!

ETA - He couldn't be the "guy arrested in the woods" per the one man's description of dark jacket and camo pants. We can discount Manfredonia as being that person fairly safely I should think.
edit on 29-1-2013 by Asktheanimals because: (no reason given)





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