Over 1 Billion to die from Flu Epidemic

Huh? Isn't that like 20% of the world's population? Check this out...

www.mosnews.com...

I really doubt that today's modern medicine would ever see anything like the black plague (et al) ever happen again, but this guy clearly believes it. Does anyone have any links or evidence to support or refute this wild claim? Thanks.

That's absolutely absurd...

I'd go along with a billion being inflicted, but not dying from it...

Saw this a couple of hours ago. Did some research. He may be letting us know about a bioterror attack.

Originally posted by kozmo
I really doubt that today's modern medicine would ever see anything like the black plague (et al) ever happen again,

CNN News ticker: 5 Chinese villagers die from "plague".....

The plague??

That's EXACTLY what I was thinking! I mean, we all know that Russia was leading the forefront on bioweapons research throughout the 70s and 80s. Does this guy know about some type of virus that might have escaped... or worse yet, that has been handed over to the terrorists?

Think about this... The easiest way to release a biological agent onto an unsuspecting population and not leave a trail would be to release a mutanogenic virus on some animal population, avian flu???, but engineer it in such a way that it will eventually mutuate into a strain that is able to not inflict humans but could prove to be deadly to them. Remember, there had been talk that perhaps Fidel Castro had unleashed the West Nile Virus through migratory birds into the US with the help of MiddleEast terrorist groups. I remember the coincidence that this particular strain showed up in ONLY Israel and the US AND AT THE SAME TIME!

Common sense will dictate that an over populated animal species will experience some sort of plague @ some point. It happened more than once in the past and it will happen again in my belief. Although its just like a global killer asteroid, tomarrow or 100,000 years from now.

Well, if it just hits China that would be 1 bil, so not far fetched.

news from last year but i think its still relevant

www.ananova.com...

CIA experts warn of future biological weapons

Advances in biotechnology could lead to a generation of biological weapons far more dangerous than those currently known, scientists have told the US Central Intelligence Agency.

The life sciences experts, convened by the agency's Office of Transnational Issues, raised fears of genetically engineered diseases that "could be worse than any disease known to man", according to the CIA's unclassified report on their conference.

The report, The Darker Bioweapons Future, speaks only generally of the dangers of newly created diseases and does not specify countries that could use them.

"The same science that may cure some of our worst diseases could be used to create the world's most frightening weapons," the report says.

Some advanced bioweapons already are possible to make, the scientists noted. They pointed to researchers in Australia who accidentally enhanced the mousepox virus by adding an immunoregulator gene, using a technique that could be applied to anthrax or smallpox, two diseases potentially capable of conversion into biological weapons.

The report also speaks of the possibility of designer diseases that would be immune to treatment, or that linger inactivated in the body until the passage of a certain amount of time passes or until a specified second substance had entered the body.

Part of the danger of biological weapons, unlike conventional bombs or nuclear weapons, is their use might not be immediately obvious.

With so many potential threats, the experts proposed developing defences aimed at strengthening the body's resistance to all disease, rather than creating treatments for individual diseases.

I really doubt that today's modern medicine would ever see anything like the black plague (et al) ever happen again,

Don't be so sure about this. Years of successful antibiotic use that have lulled us into a false sense of security are rapidly drawing to a halt. Given the ability of diseases to mutate and cross-species barriers, its really not a matter of if a plague or something hits, but when...IMO.

Saw this a couple of hours ago. Did some research. He may be letting us know about a bioterror attack.

The intriguing thing about this is that during the cold war the Soviets had the strongest bioweapons program in the world, producing things like engineered smallpox and Anthrax by the hundreds of metric tons annually. Unfortunately many of these scientists, who became unemployed upon the fall of the Soviet Union, have disappeared.

The easiest way to release a biological agent onto an unsuspecting population and not leave a trail would be to release a mutanogenic virus on some animal population, avian flu???, but engineer it in such a way that it will eventually mutuate into a strain that is able to not inflict humans but could prove to be deadly to them.

This would actually not be easy at all. I don't believe that we currently have the technology to engineer in 'prospective' or 'intended' mutations. Mutation of genetic material while not entirely random, is far from capable of being directed in vivo in a host species in the wild. Release of a biological weapon doesn't need to come through a different species to be clandestine. This is the horrific beauty of them.

Channy's entire post is highly relevant:

Advances in biotechnology could lead to a generation of biological weapons far more dangerous than those currently known, scientists have told the US Central Intelligence Agency.

This has already happened, especially in the Soviet Union as discussed in this thread. Unfortunately the technologies to do this are quite readily available and easy to manipulate. I could do it myself

They pointed to researchers in Australia who accidentally enhanced the mousepox virus by adding an immunoregulator gene, using a technique that could be applied to anthrax or smallpox, two diseases potentially capable of conversion into biological weapons.

This is actually a PUBLISHED result. This information is available to anyone with university library access, or a credit card and computer with which to download the article. Soviet scientists have confirmed using similar techniques in the engineering of bioweapons.

The report also speaks of the possibility of designer diseases that would be immune to treatment

Absolutely, unfortunately these already exist as well. This is of course one of the first issues that must be tackled when engineering an effective bioweapon.

I had conspiracy theorized for a moment the possibility that the lack of flu vaccine was by design a form of population control. The next moment, I realized this was stupid.

But it bears reminding that a lot of people die from the flu every year, even in this country, and even with a full compliment of flu vaccinations. If the flu were to hit hard some of the regions of the world that don't have what we have in the way of heath care standards, they could be in trouble. But that goes for every flu season, not just the upcoming one.

I just wonder by what percentage we will see the incidence of death by flu increase this year due to the vaccination shortage.

Originally posted by DeltaChaos
But it bears reminding that a lot of people die from the flu every year, even in this country

Something around 36,000, I believe.

Yeah, that sounds about like what I've heard. That's a lot, still.

I just had the flu a day ago. It sucked bad. It was a bad one, but maybe it's a good thing for me. That's one strain more that I don't have to worry about.

[edit on 28-10-2004 by DeltaChaos]

Originally posted by DeltaChaos
That's one strain more that I don't have to worry about.

Actually, it's 3 less strains that you have to worry about. Flu shots immunize against the 3 most likely strains that year.

Originally posted by mattison0922

Originally posted by DeltaChaos
That's one strain more that I don't have to worry about.

Actually, it's 3 less strains that you have to worry about. Flu shots immunize against the 3 most likely strains that year.

Ok. I didn't get a flu shot. I got the flu. If you get the flu, it only successfully immunizes you against the strain of flu you contract.

Originally posted by mattison0922
Something around 36,000, I believe.

Partly correct. Only a few hundred Americans die every year of the flu itself. The 36,000 comes from people who die of follow-up diseases (such as penumonia) that they contract as a direct result of having the flu. So prevention is the best policy in this case.

Originally posted by Esoterica
Partly correct. Only a few hundred Americans die every year of the flu itself. The 36,000 comes from people who die of follow-up diseases (such as penumonia) that they contract as a direct result of having the flu. So prevention is the best policy in this case.

Interesting, I have reading these stats for a long time, and never actually looking at the words... I've been looking, and you're right: 36000 die from flu related complications. Esoterica, where did you find the actual deaths from flu. I didn't find it, even on the CDC site, admittedly I only looked for about 10 minutes, but if you've got the info, please advise. Thanks.

Originally posted by mattison0922
Interesting, I have reading these stats for a long time, and never actually looking at the words... I've been looking, and you're right: 36000 die from flu related complications. Esoterica, where did you find the actual deaths from flu. I didn't find it, even on the CDC site, admittedly I only looked for about 10 minutes, but if you've got the info, please advise. Thanks.

I [ersonally have never seen the text of the numbers, but the CDC is less than user-friendly. I've gotten the number by simple news and scientific websites that have passed it on. There seems to be no ceontention over the accuracy of the number, so I tend to accept it.

Would it even need to be a strain of flu modified by humans to cause high mortality, isn't nature as good at this kind of thing on her own. I'm no expert but I seem to remember scientists saying that we are long overdue for a new potentially lethal strain to mutate and spread to the population, if we have no immunity to it it could have a very high mortality rate as was the case in 1918 when a new strain evolved and killed the young and healthy along with the old and very young. People tend to forget that flu is a killer disease for all when a particularly virulent strain emerges which we have no immunity to, remember as well there are no really effective treatments as in antibiotics as these don't affect viruses and there would be little time to identify and create a vacine before this bug had already caused major damage. Very scary thought.

Just a thought but wouldn't bio weapons be the perfect weapon for Islamic terrorists both logistically and ideologically? Lets say that Al Queda were to release a version of plague on the world, Now ideologically it would be perfect as only those that allah "chose" whould survive and anyone who died would by definition be as a result of "allah's wrath"
In addtion were they to create a vaccine first and only give it those who were "Ideologically pure" then they could use the lack of deaths in the muslim populaton as "proof" That thiers was the "one true God"
Kill of most of your enemies and convert the rest in one fell swoop.

Originally posted by mattison0922

Originally posted by DeltaChaos
But it bears reminding that a lot of people die from the flu every year, even in this country

Something around 36,000, I believe.

The reality is that they really can't count this number conclusively. Several sources have conflicting figures, some as low as 256 deaths per year on up to 35,000+. See the article below:

www.wrongdiagnosis.com...

The other problem is that the CDC takes their statistics from 122 hospitals which list Influenza/pnumonia as a cause of death, and basically project up from that. They readily admit that the system is a little flawed.

-P