North Atlantic Hurricane Watch 2013

reply to post by Gazrok


Thoughts and prayers out to your wife Gazrok!

Newest update is worrisome...downtown Tampa?!?!



--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Noon: Rotation indicated on radar in downtown Tampa. Cell is moving toward the Temple Terrace area in Hillsborough County, which remains under a tornado warning. A tornado warning is in effect for Pasco and Pinellas until 12:30 p.m.

11:58 a.m.: Western Pasco County, South Tampa and eastern Pinellas County are under a tornado warning until 12:30. Radar-indicated rotation near downtown Tampa.


Read more: www.myfoxtampabay.com...

Peace

No worries. Most of our tornadoes from TS or Hurricanes are around the 70mph strength mark. Enough to do some light damage, but you aren't likely to see any fatalities from it. (except the poor horse).

Here is what is happening in my location:
www.wunderground.com... on=0&label=you&showstorms=10&map.x=448.5&map.y=352.5¢erx=400¢ery=240&lightning=0&smooth=1&showlabels=1&rainsnow=1

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ANDREA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.3 WEST. ANDREA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/H. A NORTHEASTWARD
ACCELERATION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CENTER OF ANDREA WILL REACH THE COAST OF THE BIG BEND
AREA OF FLORIDA LATER TODAY...AND THEN MOVE NORTHEASTWARD NEAR THE
EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES THROUGH SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED BEFORE THE
CENTER REACHES THE COAST LATER TODAY. SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST
TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY WHILE THE CENTER OF ANDREA MOVES OVER
LAND. ANDREA SHOULD LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS IN ABOUT 36 TO
48 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM
TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE LIKELY OCCURRING
IN A BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS THAT IS MOVING ONSHORE THE WEST COAST
OF FLORIDA. A WIND GUST TO 48 MPH...78 KM/H WAS RECENTLY REPORTED
AT ST. PETERSBURG FLORIDA.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB...29.44 INCHES.

Just looking at the radar and the direction, it looks more in line to make landfall in the Crystal River area later today.

reply to post by Gazrok


This is from TS Debbie last year, but shows what it looks like when water comes up on the bridge....

2pm Advisory.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ANDREA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 83.6 WEST. ANDREA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 17 MPH...28 KM/H. A NORTHEASTWARD
ACCELERATION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CENTER OF ANDREA WILL REACH THE COAST OF THE BIG BEND
AREA OF FLORIDA IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ANDREA WILL THEN MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD NEAR THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES THROUGH
SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED BEFORE THE CENTER
REACHES THE COAST. SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST TONIGHT AND EARLY
FRIDAY WHILE THE CENTER OF ANDREA MOVES OVER LAND. ANDREA SHOULD
LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS IN ABOUT 36 TO 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM
FROM THE CENTER. A WIND GUST OF 58 MPH...93 KM/H WAS RECENTLY
REPORTED AT PUNTA GORDA FLORIDA.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994 MB...29.35 INCHES...
BASED ON DATA FROM A NOAA BUOY LOCATED IN THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO.

The pressure actually went down some, but only a tad (was 997 MB).

We're mostly in the clear now, as the rain has pretty much moved past us. We still get squalls of wind, but hasn't rained in a while. Most of that is now off to our southeast. I suspect the 5pm update will make it a much weaker storm, as the radar imagery has really diminished.

She sure is looking weaker which is great news. Here is an excerpt from the 5pm update that sounds good with the link for the full advisory below it.

"ANDREA SHOULD WEAKEN AFTER LANDFALL. SUBSEQUENTLY...THE CYCLONE
SHOULD GRADUALLY MERGE WITH A BAROCLINIC ZONE AS IT MOVES OVER AND
NEAR THE EASTERN UNITED STATES...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION OCCURRING DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS. AFTER
THAT...THE CYCLONE SHOULD CONTINUE AS AN EXTRATROPICAL GALE UNTIL
DISSIPATION AROUND 120 HOURS. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT THE
CONVECTION COULD DISSIPATE BEFORE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IS
COMPLETE...WHICH COULD CAUSE ANDREA TO HAVE A POST-TROPICAL PHASE
BEFORE IT BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL.

THERE ARE NO CHANGES TO THE TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ON THIS
ADVISORY. BASED ON THE ASSUMPTION THAT ANDREA WILL BECOME
POST-TROPICAL/EXTRATOPICAL IN ABOUT 36 HOURS...WE DO NOT EXPECT TO
EXTEND THE TROPICAL WARNINGS ANY FARTHER NORTH ALONG THE COAST.
OUR CURRENT INTENTION IS THAT ANY HAZARDOUS WIND CONDITIONS FROM
THE DELMARVA PENINSULA NORTHWARD TO NEW ENGLAND WOULD BE HANDLED BY
LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WARNING PRODUCTS.

REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT TRACK OF THE CENTER OF ANDREA...THE
PRIMARY EFFECTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA AND INTO THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES...STORM SURGE FLOODING ALONG PORTIONS OF THE WEST
COAST OF FLORIDA...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES TONIGHT FROM THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA NORTHWARD THROUGH THE COASTAL PORTIONS OF GEORGIA...SOUTH
CAROLINA...AND NORTH CAROLINA."

www.nhc.noaa.gov...

www.nhc.noaa.gov...

Peace

reply to post by Gazrok


I saw that locally Bayshore is closed. I lived there for a year before moving to North Tampa when I was a kid, and I do remember that area flooding all of the time.

Glad to hear everything is clearing up, and thank you for the local updates Gazrok!

Peace

No problem. Oddly, the 5pm advisory has it strengthening somewhat, but can't do that for long, as it is moving to land now.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ANDREA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 83.4 WEST. ANDREA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 17 MPH...28 KM/H...AND THIS MOTION
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE
NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF ANDREA
WILL MAKE LANDFALL IN THE FLORIDA BIG BEND REGION SHORTLY. AFTER
LANDFALL...ANDREA WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD NEAR THE EAST COAST OF
THE UNITED STATES THROUGH SATURDAY.

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/H...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. THE STORM SHOULD WEAKEN AFTER LANDFALL...AND ANDREA
SHOULD LOSE ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS BY SATURDAY AS IT MOVES
THROUGH THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM
FROM THE CENTER. THE NOAA AUTOMATED STATION AT CEDAR KEY FLORIDA
RECENTLY REPORTED 10-MINUTE WINDS OF 41 MPH...67 KM/HR...AND A GUST
OF 56 MPH...91 KM/HR.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT IS 993 MB...29.32 INCHES.

The wind is there, but most of the rain is still in that band stretching across the state.
Bayshore always floods. Last I heard, the Skyway bridge is still closed due to high winds, so that is going to cause a real traffic headache for anyone who commutes that way (and cause more volume on the other bridges). I told the wife I may be a half hour late or more.

She is still holding it together, but not for long, which is a good thing.

Here is the 8am and a visual as well.

"BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ANDREA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 7A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012013
800 AM EDT FRI JUN 07 2013

...ANDREA MOVING NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH SOUTH CAROLINA...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.4N 80.2W
ABOUT 35 MI...60 KM NNW OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 145 MI...235 KM WSW OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 28 MPH...44 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.41 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED FROM THE SAVANNAH
RIVER SOUTHWARD.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF THE SAVANNAH RIVER TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHT VIRGINIA
* PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS
* LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF NEW POINT COMFORT

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY
YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ANDREA WAS
LOCATED INLAND OVER SOUTH CAROLINA NEAR LATITUDE 33.4 NORTH...
LONGITUDE 80.2 WEST. ANDREA HAS IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST
NEAR 28 MPH...44 KM/H. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO WITH AN ADDITIONAL INCREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF ANDREA WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE NEAR THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES THROUGH
SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THESE WINDS ARE CONFINED PRIMARILY OVER WATER AND NEAR THE
COAST TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS
FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND ANDREA IS EXPECTED TO LOSE
TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS LATER TODAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM
TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER. THE NOAA AUTOMATED STATION AT FOLLY
ISLAND SOUTH CAROLINA RECENTLY REPORTED A WIND GUST OF 47 MPH...
76 KM/HR.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 996 MB...29.41 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...ANDREA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF
2 TO 4 INCHES FROM CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA NORTHEASTWARD
ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD INTO COASTAL MAINE. ADDITIONAL RAIN
TOTALS OF UP TO 2 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN
GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA THROUGH THIS MORNING WHICH COULD BRING
STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS UP TO 6 INCHES ACROSS THOSE AREAS.

STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF STORM SURGE AND THE TIDE WILL CAUSE
NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY RISING WATERS.
THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING HEIGHTS ABOVE GROUND IF THE
PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE...

SOUTH CAROLINA AND NORTH CAROLINA...1 TO 2 FT
EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA...1 TO 2 FT

THE DEEPEST WATER WILL OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. SURGE-
RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE TIMING OF THE SURGE AND
THE TIDAL CYCLE...AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER SHORT DISTANCES. FOR
INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY
YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD
NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA
DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

TORNADOES...A FEW TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER COASTAL SECTIONS FROM
NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH VIRGINIA.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM EDT."



www.nhc.noaa.gov...

Peace

reply to post by Surfrat


Looking good in your area today! Thanks for the link too.

Peace

Nice calm skies now.

Post Tropical Cyclone Andrea is going away nicely. And the rest of the Atlantic is looking very calm.

"SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

GALE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED NEAR PORTIONS OF COASTAL RHODE ISLAND
AND SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS. A HIGH WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT
FOR NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...INCLUDING OTHER INLAND WATCHES AND
WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE AT WEATHER.GOV.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE
ANDREA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 40.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.5 WEST.
THE POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 35 MPH
...56 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST AND EAST SHOULD OCCUR
TODAY AND SUNDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF ANDREA
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD NEAR THE U.S. EAST COAST
TODAY...AND THEN ACROSS ATLANTIC CANADA LATE TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230 MILES...370 KM
TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 MB...29.47 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...POST-TROPICAL ANDREA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL UP TO 1 INCH OVER PARTS OF COASTAL NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL
BRING ISOLATED STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS TO NEAR 5 INCHES OVER PARTS OF
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

STORM SURGE...LOCALIZED COASTAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE ALONG PORTIONS
OF THE U.S. EAST COAST FROM LONG ISLAND TO NEW ENGLAND. FOR
INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY
YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE.

WIND...WINDS TO NEAR GALE FORCE ARE POSSIBLE ALONG PORTIONS OF THE
COAST FROM LONG ISLAND TO ATLANTIC CANADA THROUGH SUNDAY.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM EDT."





www.nhc.noaa.gov...

Everything is looking calm throughout the Atlantic in regards to anything Tropical forming.

Even though Andrea was only a Tropical Storm, this summary from the Weather Channel shows what even a "wimpy" storm can do. Andrea was no problem for our stout Floridian friends, but I post this just as a reminder of what weaker storms can do too.

Stay safe this season and be prepared:

"Here is a recap of some of the most notable storm reports from Andrea, as of June 8:

TORNADOES
•A preliminary 10 tornadoes have touched down associated with Andrea.
•Myakka City, Fla.: EF0 tornado with a path length of 1.4 miles touched down at 2:49 a.m. damaging three roofs.
•Sun City Center, Fla.: EF0 tornado with a path length of 2.5 miles touched down at 3:47 a.m. Worst structure damage was shingles torn off homes.
•The Acreage, Fla.: EF1 tornado with a path length of two miles touched down at 6:45 a.m. Homes with roof damage, numerous powerlines downed, one injured.
•Belle Glade, Fla.: EF0 tornado with minor damage to trees and powerlines.
•Gulfport, Fla.: Waterspout came ashore, trees downed on restaurant, car.
•South Venice, Fla.: Reports of damage from a waterspout coming ashore, including roof damage, downed trees.
•Clearwater, Fla.: Roof damage to the humane society as waterspout moved ashore.
•Mayport & Fernandina Beach, Fla.: Tornado reported with damage at Mayport NAS and in Fernandina Beach. Roof removed from vacant house.

HEAVY RAIN/FLASH FLOODING/STORM SURGE
•Near Carrabelle, Fla.: 4.5" of rain in just 5 hours as of 7:56 a.m. ET Thursday.
•Gainesville, Fla.: Road closed due to flooding, trees also downed.
•Pine Ridge, N.C.: 6.50" storm total rainfall
•Washington, N.C.: Several streets closed from flooding.
•Coats Crossroads, N.C.: Car stalled in high water
•Raleigh, N.C.: Roads closed with up to 3 feet of water; second wettest June day on record
•Hopewell, Va.: High water on numerous roads
•N. Miami Beach: 13.93" of rain on June 7 from trailing band of thunderstorms over south Florida. Relocation of 24 families required.
•Purdy, Va.: 5.31" storm total rainfall
•NYC Central Park: 4.77" storm total rain; 4.16" on June 7 alone was second wettest June day. Only Jun. 26, 1884 was wetter.
•Melville, N.Y.: Three westbound lanes of L.I. Expwy. flooded
•Philadelphia: 3.82" storm total rain
•Providence, R.I.: 3.23" of rain on June 7 was second wettest June day (3.29" on Jun. 13, 1998 was wettest)
•Fall River, Mass.: 2-3 feet of water on some roads; at least one car stranded.
•New Bedford, Mass.: 4 feet of water in a home on Margin St. Other homes with basement flooding.
•Peak storm surge: 4.55 feet at Cedar Key, 3 feet at Tampa's McKay Bay Entrance, 2.5 feet at Clearwater Beach.

NOTABLE WIND GUSTS (over 55 mph)
•Charlotte Co. Airport, Fla.: 58 mph
•St. Petersburg, Fla.: 58 mph
•Clearwater, Fla.: 56 mph
•Cedar Key, Fla.: 56 mph"

www.weather.com...

Peace

That's the good thing about our tornadoes here, they are usually only EF0 or EF1, occasionally an EF2 with a stronger tropical cyclone storm, but almost never stronger...that I can remember (though Andrew may have had some nasty ones).

I'm actually a little remiss on some of my supplies, so hoping to stock up a bit more before the next one.
I mostly need, more oil lamps, some more canned food (my teenage stepson eats like a horse), more stored water, and a bigger stock of horse feed and hay. So, have to stock up on these.

Oil lamps are great by the way. Cheaper than battery powered lights, and put out a lot of light if you get the right ones, and enough of them. Also, in fixtures, they look nice all the time, so you can already have them in place on walls, and avoid the need of running from room to room to illuminate.

reply to post by Gazrok


Kudos on your Hurricane Supply List Thread. Here is the link for anyone interested:
www.abovetopsecret.com...

Peace

Pretty quiet in the Atlantic. But feeling bad for the areas underneath this rain maker (TD 2) in Central America and Southern Mexico.



Peace

From the sat pics though, sure looked like it was trying to organize, just being over land, it really couldn't.

We've been pretty calm here all day, just the usual summer storm pattern.

But look at THIS!



This was just off the same bridge as the vid I posted earlier. This was just TODAY, off a bridge I go across every day (twice).... Yikes!