posted on Jan, 17 2013 @ 06:22 AM
This has the makings of becoming one of the most spectacular hostage situations since the siege at the Iranian Embassy in London.
So far we know that the hostage takers are most likely form Al-Qa’ida in The Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) or form a group calling itself Khaled Abu
al-Abbas Brigade which is an off-shot of AQIM created by one of its former commanders after a fall out with AQIM leadership, Mokhtar Belmokhtar.
Regardless, these hostage takers are committed and have a radical Islamic ideology.
As far as I know no clear demands have yet been made public by the hostage takers but they have provided the Algerians with a list of demands but have
said they will not negotiate. The truth I think is that they will negotiate as in they will enter dialogue with the hostage takers however they
won’t have anything to negotiate with. Most likely the hostage takers are going to demand the withdrawal of French and other western forces form
Mali and the rest of the continent.
So far we know that at least one British national has been killed since the start of this along with one Algerian. There are also some conflicting
reports as well just now that between 15 and 30 hostages have managed to escape. In addition to this the Algerian army has surrounded the facility
however no solution appears to be in sight.
I would say it is likely that this is going to end in the use of force, I do not think these militants will back down they can use this situation as a
massive propaganda coup and they are prepared to die anyway. So the question then I what can be done, based on the ideology of these hostage takers I
would have to say that they will not surrender.
I think there will be a Special Forces hostage rescue operation to free the remaining hostages but the question is who would conduct such an
operation. The Algerian special forces the “Special intervention group” I do not believe have the ability to safely conduct this operation.
Therefore I believe it is likely that states such as France, Brittan and America will be pressing the Algerians for a foreign force to deal with the
crisis. I know that some will jump to assume that Frances GIGN will take up this role however I think hat is unlikely, they have just failed at
rescuing one of their own in Somalia, they are currently engaged in Mali and there is also a significant terrorist threat facing the French homeland
just now. That realistically leaves the British and the Americans, again American Special Forces are engaged inside Mali as well in addition to this
are still active in a number of combat zones. I would personally believe that this is going to fall on the lap of British Special Forces, a British
national has already been killed, the FCO is being very vocal about this situation and there are reports that British Special Forces are already on
standby to head up a rescue. Therefore I would have to say that in the coming days we may very well see a British Operation to extract these hostages
with some French assistance.