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THE MINORITY VOTE....Hmmm. Republican pollster Tony Fabrizio has just finished a survey of 12 battleground states and finds Bush and Kerry tied with 47% of the vote apiece. But when he weights for minority turnout based on the 2000 exit polls, Kerry is ahead 49.2%-45.7%. And when he further updates the weighting to take into account the most recent census results, Kerry is ahead 49.9%-44.7%.
As Fabrizio blandly puts it, "It is clear that minority turnout is a wildcard in this race and represents a huge upside for Sen. Kerry and a considerable challenge for the President's campaign." More accurately, if Fabrizio is right — that Kerry is ahead by 5% overall in the battleground states — Kerry is a sure winner on November 2.
Suddenly the Bush campaign's obsession with challenging voters in minority neighborhoods makes a lot of sense, doesn't it? Their own internal polling is probably telling them the same thing that Fabrizio's poll says: unless they somehow manage to keep the minority vote down, they're doomed.
[POLL RESULTS AVAILABLE VIA PDF AT HOST SITE]
Originally posted by W_HAMILTON
And I think we will see a very high voter turn-out this year. After what happened the last presidential election, and especially what has happened in the four years since ... people are too opinionated one way or the other, they will let their voices be heard on Nov. 2nd
By SHADOW266It would be something to have a voter turn-out over 75% in the birthplace of Democracy