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Republican Pollster Explains It All

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posted on Oct, 27 2004 @ 06:06 PM
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If everybody votes, Kerry wins. If hispanics vote, Kerry wins. If blacks vote, Kerry wins. If Native Americans turn out in the southwest, Kerry wins. But if Republicans can breed enough apathy or suppress enough votes to disenfranchise the will of the people, Bush squeaks another one out.

WashingtonMonthly.com
October 27, 2004


THE MINORITY VOTE....Hmmm. Republican pollster Tony Fabrizio has just finished a survey of 12 battleground states and finds Bush and Kerry tied with 47% of the vote apiece. But when he weights for minority turnout based on the 2000 exit polls, Kerry is ahead 49.2%-45.7%. And when he further updates the weighting to take into account the most recent census results, Kerry is ahead 49.9%-44.7%.

As Fabrizio blandly puts it, "It is clear that minority turnout is a wildcard in this race and represents a huge upside for Sen. Kerry and a considerable challenge for the President's campaign." More accurately, if Fabrizio is right that Kerry is ahead by 5% overall in the battleground states Kerry is a sure winner on November 2.

Suddenly the Bush campaign's obsession with challenging voters in minority neighborhoods makes a lot of sense, doesn't it? Their own internal polling is probably telling them the same thing that Fabrizio's poll says: unless they somehow manage to keep the minority vote down, they're doomed.

[POLL RESULTS AVAILABLE VIA PDF AT HOST SITE]


I'll even add the predictions from other analyses... If young people vote, Kerry wins. If people earning under $50k a year vote, Kerry wins. If single women vote, Kerry wins. If highly educated women vote, Kerry wins.

Slice it, dice it...anyway you like. All the "likely voter" scenarios in the world showing a "dead heat" assume none of these groups will turn out. They may be right. They may not. I'd imagine they're seriously off this time, given reports from the field in early voting.

Yet Gallup's typical "voter" is still a middle aged white man earning over $75k a year, and on average "Republican."

If the GOP wasn't running scared Bush wouldn't be getting a public hard on for gays on Good Morning America and running around now with Zell begging for Democrat's support citing JFK and FDR (a great President who's legacy the Republicans seek to destroy) as "Great Leaders" he suddenly admires.

Nice try, but 6 days before the election is a little late to try and give lip serve to that broken promise of being a "uniter." Hopefully we can take this move from Bush as a signal voter intimidation and suppression isn't going to work for the Grand Old Party this year.


[edit on 27-10-2004 by RANT]




posted on Oct, 27 2004 @ 06:13 PM
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The GOP is done for, even if they get the electoral votes, they will again lose the popular vote, and well, twice in a row isn't good.



posted on Oct, 27 2004 @ 06:32 PM
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And I think we will see a very high voter turn-out this year. After what happened the last presidential election, and especially what has happened in the four years since ... people are too opinionated one way or the other, they will let their voices be heard on Nov. 2nd



posted on Oct, 27 2004 @ 06:45 PM
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If the election went the way it was supposed to, Kerry would probably win by a comfortable margin. But the thing is, the people in power WILL NOT allow that to happen.

story.news.yahoo.com.../latimests/20041027/ts_latimes/signsofvoterfraudappear

Incidents like this are happening all over the country. It's like we're regressing instead of moving forward into the 21st century.



posted on Oct, 27 2004 @ 06:54 PM
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It would be something to have a voter turn-out over 75% in the birthplace of Democracy. What does it say to the world when on the average 50% of those eligible to vote don't even bother. With participation comes proper representation. With apothy, the strong rule the weak.

Urge everyone you know to vote, regardless of their views. The only losers in an election are those who do not choose to use their rights.



posted on Oct, 27 2004 @ 07:00 PM
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Originally posted by W_HAMILTON
And I think we will see a very high voter turn-out this year. After what happened the last presidential election, and especially what has happened in the four years since ... people are too opinionated one way or the other, they will let their voices be heard on Nov. 2nd


::::searching frantically for link to back up statements::::

From what I've heard, early voting numbers here in Georgia indicate that voter turnout may be as high as 75%. Lines at early voting stations are as long as 5 hours.

It's refreshing to see that people actually *do* give a damn.



posted on Oct, 27 2004 @ 07:01 PM
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< image "
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posted on Oct, 27 2004 @ 07:23 PM
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Thanks, Rant. I sure hope in the end Kerry clearly wins-

Well, im sure these votes wont make it to the polls. Disgusting.
And yet we shake our heads and go on with our lives and once again live with it. 4 more years anticipating the apocalypse, the horsemen, terror threats and all that comes with this administration. Could we handle it?



posted on Oct, 27 2004 @ 07:58 PM
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By SHADOW266It would be something to have a voter turn-out over 75% in the birthplace of Democracy



I didn't know Greece was having an election.



posted on Oct, 27 2004 @ 08:20 PM
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My fellow Americans. As you go to the polls this November 2, keep in mind this is the most important election in a generation. We've worked hard the past four years to confuse the hell out of you and make voting as difficult as possible in key areas. When you wait in four hour long lines in historically democratic precincts, challenged by hired thugs trying to slow down the lines and discourage little old ladies from getting to the polls.... please remember this important message from the President of the United States. To you, the blacks, the hispanics, the women, the young people, the old people, the poor people, and democrats of all race, color and creed no matter where you live...I say this sincerely to each and every one...


I'm George Bush and I approve this message.


media.texansfortruth.org...

www.fibiger.org...

Unbelievable. :shk:

[edit on 27-10-2004 by RANT]



posted on Oct, 27 2004 @ 09:26 PM
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Well, RANT, if the unthinkable does happen next week, and Kerry is truly elected. I have a little prediction for you. If that means the end of the power of the Republican Party in this country, it will also mean the end of the power of the Democratic party.
The Libertaraian Party will rise up with swelling numbers of disenchanted Republicans...and Democrats


Actually, after this rather disgraceful campaing of 2004, that may happen if Bush wins.



posted on Oct, 27 2004 @ 09:26 PM
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Rant, where i come from, we would say you're a funny sob, thats a great compliment, of course



ahhhhhh



Thanks for the laugh!



posted on Oct, 27 2004 @ 09:28 PM
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Wonder if they could run something like that in one of the campaign ads in this final week? Even if it's blurred out, that could be a pretty powerful statement, seeing our president like that. Certainly would create a big fuss right before the election, which essentially would drone out any surprise the Bush side tries to come up with.

I say turn it into an ad!



posted on Oct, 27 2004 @ 11:00 PM
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Great News Rant!

I learned somewhere that higher turnout always favors democratic candidates.

And that post of the bird flip is hilarious!!

Reminds me of Pierre Trudeau who did it in PUBLIC to people on a train platform WHILE ELECTED!


Here's the story. It's also included in his bio.

Can't find a photo of the "Trudeau Salute"




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