posted on Jan, 14 2013 @ 04:06 AM
This is an interesting twist on the Iran threads. Personally, I'm used to seeing why we should, or should not attack Iran threads, but no one has
presented it in the fashion you have and for that I'm going to give you a star and a flag.
First, this is a very complicated issue. Now, I in no way mean to slander or underplay the US forces, but Iran is an extremely tricky situation for a
number of reasons. First I will address what you have posted in your OP.
I assume, by Iran's nuclear facilities you mean both their refineries as well as their nuclear power plants because in reality both of them can
produce the materials necessary to make a nuclear weapon, which seems to be both the number one threat and scare monger tactic with in the entire
reasoning towards going to war/attacking Iran.
Both Iran's Nuclear facilities and refineries are active. Which means, if you drop a bomb on them you risk the hazard of spreading radioactive
material into the atmosphere, as well as causing potential for a meltdown situation. Given the vast number of US allies in the area, as well as the
potential for global hazards in a situation such as this these targets can not be attacked with out causing collateral damage, or upset with in the
communities of middle eastern allies of the United states. This ship has sailed, at an operational status these targets would cause more harm to the
region attacked by conventional weapons, than left as they are. This is the same reason the US did not attack N. Korean, refinement or nuclear
facilities. It poses an extreme risk of potential radioactive collateral for US allies in the region.
I agree 100% with your next statement/statements. Iran has both Said it would shut down the strait of Hormuz, as well as attack/burn oil wells in the
surrounding middle eastern states if the US made any Aggressive moves/strikes towards Iran(as perceived by Iran). Striking an Iranian target by any
means, would place them in the immediate position to retaliate by mining or occupying the strait of Hormuz and shutting down, or hindering shipping
through it in a shorter amount of time than the US can currently prevent. As well, Iran possesses both Land and Air forces capable of attacking
surrounding oil wells, and stocks with in the middle east causing a potential for oil shortage in the near future. The US does how ever obtain oil
from other countries as well as possess it's own emergency stocks for just such an occasion.
Now, as far as the civilian goes, any action in the middle east could affect energy costs. We saw this both with the desert storm era conflict in
Iraq, as well as the more recent theater in Iraq. Oil prices reached all time highs, and never fell during and after both conflicts. Gasoline is
currently, much more expensive before either conflict, even though tensions in the are have subsided significantly. When the prices began to rise the
reason for said rise was blamed on the conflict itself, and having ended we haven't seen much of a price drop at the pump. So if another conflict
broke out in the oil rich region we could very well face an increase in price or tax on crude oil products irregardless of the status of the oil
fields or shipment. Keep in mind a vast portion of American oil comes from both Canada, and Russia. The United States being Canada's number one
consumer of crude oil.
Now, here comes the tricky part. As I mentioned at the beginning of this post. I am in no way trying to undermine the US forces. How ever, Iran is
currently in a position to do some serious damage. Iran is not like the other nations the US has faces off with in the middle east. Iran actually
possesses one of the most technologically advanced military's in the region. They also possess enough man power to pose a serious threat to both the
US as well as any other nation that decides to get in on the action. I in no way doubt the US is quite capable as a military force, but this isn't
going to be another Iraq, or Libya. Iran has both the technology, man power, and willingness to fend off any and all invaders that come their way.
They are not starving ill equipped slaves in the desert waiting for American tanks to roll over them like we saw in Desert Storm. Their nation is not
currently in a civil war like we saw with Libya. They are Strong, they are proud, and they are perfectly capable of doing immense damage, land, air or
sea. Not to mention, Both Russia, and China seem to be on their side. I think it would be extremely foolish of the US or Israel to make the first
move. Doing so would simply be like throwing a nuke at an already unstable powder keg.