Advanced Warning Of Snow and Deep Cold Arriving in the UK.

Originally posted by jrmcleod

Things are very fluid just ow but the miodel runs issued at 1600 should clarify things either "for" or "against"

I have read somewhere (in the last week) that there is now an extra 4% (ish) of moisture in the air in the Northern Hemisphere due to ice melt. My understanding is that this means that really all things are rather fluid at the moment! (no pun intended). As the moisture levels of air affect things like wind speeds, cloud cover, types, etc, then possibly models need some major overhauls to take this into account? (not after a definitive answer from you, more interested on your thoughts on this as a "weather buff").

reply to post by jrmcleod


Thanks for the info, although I have been watching the weekly forecast on skynews:

It is due to begin on thursday this week... expect to see temps of only 6c during the day!

You know what this means?

More cash to the Energy Companies!!

I havn't had the heating on since Dec 10th 2012.... looks like i'll be putting it on by Thursday!

I have read somewhere (in the last week) that there is now an extra 4% (ish) of moisture in the air in the Northern Hemisphere due to ice melt. My understanding is that this means that really all things are rather fluid at the moment! (no pun intended).

reply to post by Flavian







Would this also explain why my hair looks so terrible of late...Frizzed to perfection!

Just a thought, would be nice to know my bad hair life could be due to Arctic ice melt.

Oh please let it be so....

reply to post by jrmcleod


OK its getting colder true but I didn't see any -40c anywhere in Europe. We all know the model don't calculate the impact of the snow as it will make the nights colder but for now the cold seems to be focused on mainland Europe. No arguing its getting colder, but deep cold, well we must see especially the UK. I hope we can skate on ice and slide in snow that are the fun parts of the winter, but I do realize the higher energy usage, the traffic and transportation problem and the physical impact on weaker people.

I just mention GFS because a couple of post before the post you replied to I gave a couple of links providing GFS where I see -10c in europe and 0 to -4 in the UK



source:

Temperature
Precepation

Its not my first time checking weather its interesting but in the long run they are models and one should always check them all (if you are interested in not following main stream weather forecast but making up your own mind)

reply to post by IgnorantSquare



I think what you need to take from this is that snow precipitation will be almost guaranteed to fall where the upper air temperature is below -5oC, for definate assurance look at around -7oC for snow at sea level. Although its good to look at the 2m temp, i find its best to view the 850hpa temps. The ECM is showing approx -10oc uppers, along with the JMA. GFS is struggling to battle out the Atlantic influence and we have -10oC uppers right on the east coast of the UK.

I think once this evenings models come out, we will be a step closer to seeing a definative in the MSM.

What we need is GFS to follow suit, which i believe it will but it may play around with Battlefield Britain for the next 24 hours yet.

For ideas on potential snow events, i would say look at around 96 - 144 hours away.

p.s. i too am amatuer at this and forecast all my own weather...i very rarely watch the MSM weather

UPDATE

The latest batch of model runs have been produced and i hate to say it but it appears that there has been an upgrade.

The models have brought the colder air sooner and potentially harsher with the possibility of quite a snow event for Saturday for SE/E/NE England, E/NE Scotland and Wales.

The Met O (i would imagine) will be pulling their hair out after this upgrade and may be revising their forecasts for the MSM tonight.

The ECM is trying tohold onto this cold spell for a while, GFS is still choppy a bit past +96 hours, but what we have is quite good uniformity within the models in a reasonably good time frame.

Look out the snow shovels and prepare for potential road, air and rail disruption.

1990 springs to mind...

Damn you snow I am not at all looking forward to your frosty visit.

My reasons are purely selfish as I have a temperamental tumble dryer that sits in my out house. If the temp drops below 2 degrees we have to take a hair dryer and blow on the heat sensor for at least 5 minutes before every load otherwise it will stop running after about 90 seconds.

Yeah, that's right... I'm posting about my tumble dryer!

On the plus side it does mean icy fresh water straight from the tap :-)

Well, the Met Office is forecasting a low of 2ºC and high of 6ºC for next Saturday. That's surely not abnormally cold for UK. Even here in southern Brazil, where I live, these temperatures are not considered too cold during winter.
As a matter of fact, temperatures in UK have been constantly quite above average recently.

We have not had a winter yet in the UK, which is unusual, I have rarely seen the temperature drop below 8oC most days.

I must say though, I think you are wrong, I don't think we will be getting any snow within the next 2 weeks.

reply to post by jrmcleod


I’ve been watching the 850hpa as well. As I am following the struggle in the stratosphere for a couple of weeks now, it has been interesting and finally we see some results. I live at mainland Europe btw. its no use to talk about weather in general focused on a region as it is a "flowing" happening.

Saturday could be interesting for south west UK:

Great - that time of year again when Traffic Wardens can beat their targets easily! Anyone remember the scandal in Brum of ticketing cars abandoned in the snow?

reply to post by jrmcleod


Have you seen what its going to be in OZ?

54c is possible and thats a record breaker:

news.sky.com...

Originally posted by dmsuse
We have not had a winter yet in the UK, which is unusual, I have rarely seen the temperature drop below 8oC most days.

I must say though, I think you are wrong, I don't think we will be getting any snow within the next 2 weeks.

Not to sound bullish but i am afraid you are wrong...there will be snow, i will put my ATS membership on it. It is wednesday, and the weekend is within the reliable timeframe for forecasting. All that needs ironed out is where and how much snow...this is the hard part and snow precipitation is hard to predict, especially in slack easterlies.

well I noticed on the way to work today I big drop in temp.

BBC have also updated thee local weather forecasts. Now showing temps as low as -6 and risks of snow as early as Saturday

reply to post by jrmcleod


Thanks for the heads up

I am situated in the north east of scotland so I am partial to a bit of snow. During the last 3 or 4 years the majority of our snowfall has been during February/March.

Time to get the winter tyres on!

Just Googled the ten day forecast for Manchester and sure enough it is showing snow for Saturday , with a low of -6

Finally some decent weather! I have been dying for winter to properly kick in! sit around the fire place and hot chocolate weather here it comes!

Unusually warm up here today in the Lakes, I was walking around outside with a t-shirt on and caught the sun

Very strange for a January.......especially up here in the Antarctic Cumbria.

Originally posted by dmsuse
We have not had a winter yet in the UK, which is unusual, I have rarely seen the temperature drop below 8oC most days.

I must say though, I think you are wrong, I don't think we will be getting any snow within the next 2 weeks.

Pastry is made and you can have the filling of your choice , all you have to do is tell me how big a slice of humble pie you would like ? lol

according to met office norfolk has it on sunday but thats the 5 day forecast so its neither here nor there at the moment which has now changed to sleet lol