Some of you, the weather enthusiasts, will be aware of the strong possibility of deep cold and snow arriving to the shores of the UK over the course
of the next 2 weeks. How strong this deep cold will be is anyones guess but it has the potential to be as bad, if not worse than November/December
2010 or January 2009.
Some of you may remember seeing this NASA image of the entire UK covered in snow...something quite unusual.
I'm not posting this as a doom and gloom or whatever thread, just simply getting it out there before the Met Office get the courage to do so....
And also in part to debunk those who will claim HAARP, Aliens or the excuse of global warming (this is a natural event).
Firstly, you need to understand why we havent experienced cold so far and why we are about to. In short it is because of the temperature of the
Stratosphere. In recent years, a corrolation between a snowy UK and the temperature of the Stratosphere above the North Pole has been discovered and
researched. This temperature variation can have quite an impact on our weather.
These past few months, the temperature above the North Pole has been very cold (as you'd expect) which has created a strong Polar Vortex many km's
above the North Pole. This is usually because of the weaker energy from the Sun and hence the temperature drop. What then happens is the Ozone
can't heat up. This cold temperature creates a very strong Jet Stream, this Jet Stream then drives the default weather into the UK....which is, you
guessed it...rain and wind, we have had plenty of that recently.
When the temperature in the stratosphere increases, it destabalises the Polar Vortex which in turn disrupts the Jet Steeam and makes it "meander".
This can allow cold air to stream in from Europe towards the UK...notable examples being late 2010 and early 2009.
This is what is forecast to happen.
The expectant weather would be relatively calm, cold and snowy. The further East you are, the more likely you are to be snowy as obviously the colder
air is continental and the continent is to our east. Depending on the weather patterns that set up, we could see streamers of snow showers from the
N/NE/E that could produce heavy snow, thundersnow or simply localised showers because of the "lake effect"...the finer details cannot be forecast at
the moment, this thread is about potential.
A lot of my information comes courtesy of a weather forum, with some extremely knowledgable people on it, but i have been a member since 2005 (because
i am a weather enthusiast)...must be the boring UK weather we experience that drives it.
Anyways, take this thread as you will, watch the weather on TV and online and realise that should things follow the projections (80/90% confidence)
you will be aware and can organise accordingly.
I have provided some further reading below:
Stratosphere Temperature Forecast
Sudden Stratospheric Warming
There is one further dramatic stratospheric phenomenon that can occur occasionally during the polar winter, this is known as a Sudden Stratospheric
Warming. A Sudden Stratospheric Warming occurs when there is an abrupt warming of air, which is introduced into the vortex. The reasons behind this
are complex and the results are dramatic. The stratospheric polar vortex can completely disintegrate and the winds flow in the opposite direction.
This can have an amplified effect on the weather patterns seen in the troposphere, with a higher increase in .blocking patterns. that inhibit the
normal flow of the jet stream. These disruptive patterns can last up to two months and once again colder weather can be experienced at latitudes
One example of a Sudden Stratospheric Warming occurred in late January 2009 - the effects were felt very quickly, in early February 2009. The winds
came in from the East, bringing snow and below average temperatures.