New Quake Swarm Has Started Near Yellowstone Lake!

reply to post by EvanB

I didn't say pack up all the gear and leave. I didn't say we shouldn't continuously monitor and study. I didn't say tell the scientists to go home. I said, there are many, many posts here about the exact same thing and making a bigger deal of it than it actually is, is a waste of time and post space. I live here. I know it can be dangerous. I know the time frame of the over due big one. But most importantly, I know that the swarms happen alllllllllll the time and I am trying to educate people about this and the need to not act like Chicken Little yelling and screaming that the Sky Is Falling. Relax. It's just another day in the Yellowstone area. Locals don't overreact. Some People on ATS do though.

reply to post by jaxnmarko


Well, I hear you! Yes, the swarms happen all the time, yet Yellowstone is a big monster that will come roaring out of the shaking, heaving ground at some stage.

I guess the problem will be that the rest of us will never get to say "we told you so." Because you will be dead!

But, their are millions of people around the world, all living on Mother Natures little surprises and much the same applies to them.

Enjoy the beauty, enjoy the life style. You cannot educate the rest of humanity because at some stage they WILL be right. But then, you will not be in a position to care.

P

Originally posted by pheonix358
Enjoy the beauty, enjoy the life style. P

I go to Yellowstone once, sometimes twice a year.

And the quote says it all,... if you care.

reply to post by jaxnmarko


Okay, TA hasn't been back yet, so I gotta say something.

Just because you are a 'local' does not make you an expert. Trust me, I know first-hand that just because you live in an area of risk doesn't mean you are well educated. Most of the people I know here in the PNW have no idea what the 'big one' really means...what the mechanism is, what happened last time or what the potential for damage is.

I agree that people shouldn't over- react. However, TA simply started a thread about a new swarm at Yellowstone. To monitor it and see what, if anything, happens. To say they happen all the time and is no big deal at all, move along....is a bit of an overstatement. Yes, they happen. But we are talking about Yellowstone here. If you are aware of the history and the potential risk, than you certainly would agree that it is worth watching.

There are many of us here that enjoy watching mother nature at work and at the same time learning a bit more about the world we live in. Just because a couple of people who don't understand it get a bit excited, doesn't mean the thread itself shouldn't be written. So relax. No one is throwing up the alarms, we are just watching.

ETA: Looks like it has started back up again thumbnail

reply to post by westcoast

Okay, sorry everyone. I promise to merely roll my eyes the next time there is a Yellowstone swarm post and I will continue to enjoy the area after 30 plus years and I will continue to read the articles in the local paper about recent changes in Yellowstone Caldera and the bulge under the lake that goes up and down and shifts and the changing periodical ventings of geysers like Old Faithful, which is not the same as it used to be.... I am not an expert despite my years of reading articles in scientific journals, local papers, magazines, and so forth and I cannot predict what will happen around the corner. It wasn't meant to be hugely critical of the poster so much as the number of posts regarding the same issue..... just me noting the repetition.
Thank you for showing me the error of my ways.... just being cranky after days of the flu. In the future I will bite my tongue and allow those that post and those that respond to have their fair exchanges without my input regarding the matter. Perhaps Yellowstone will someday show us something terrible in our lifetimes, but I certainly hope not. However, it being an extinction level event possibly, I may be in the front row seating of a spectacular show. Happy New Year, fellow ATSers, I do apologize.

reply to post by westcoast


And there is more to it than that.

If jax had really read all the posts on YS around here, he would understand that the characteristics of a swarm can change at any time. He would understand the complexity and holes in the monitoring systems, and how and why our alert system could fail to provide sufficient warning. He would understand that if low level tremor were to develop, under the magnitude of the auto alert system, that it could go undetected for hours overnight unless people like me were watching it- unpaid, amateur volunteers that know enough when to call the personal cell phone numbers of people that matter. He would understand that I have special software that allows me to distinguish things that you can't by looking at a webicorder.

But that's ok. My friends here know why I make these threads, and know how important it is to keep a watchful eye on this beast. And THAT'S what matters to me. Thanks, friends.

Originally posted by EvanB

Originally posted by smyleegrl
reply to post by TrueAmerican

 

For those of us who are idiots.....can you explain what you mean by a bulge in the lake and the potential danger a swarm there would pose?

I think I have an idea, but want to make sure. Thanks!

Not an expert.. But lakes usually form on the business end of a volcano over the "plug" where below is where the magma chamber is... Any bulge or deformation would indicate an upsurge of magma or disolved gasses to the surface causing the land on ground level to warp or bulge... In other words... Not good.

edit on 6-1-2013 by EvanB because: (no reason given)

edit on 6-1-2013 by EvanB because: magama??? wtf is that?? lol.. I hate me sometimes :-/

A bulge isn't necessarily good but equally it isn't necessarily bad. Volcanoes expand and contract naturally. We do not know enough and are learning all the time but from observations, bulges can be terrible news (Mount St Helens) or they could simply be an indication of an active phase in a volcanoes cycle (magma moving in the chamber and the "plumbing"). Volcanoes "acquire" bulges fairly regularly (depending on the volcano type and by regularly i am talking a geological time scale!). Usually it doesn't lead to an eruptive phase.

The person that figures out when it does signal an eruptive phase will become a legend of Vulcanology.

Originally posted by pheonix358

Originally posted by LittleBlackEagle

Originally posted by Aleister
A woman I know said recently that she'd like to move to the Yellowstone region. She didn't know about the potential of a superquake, and I didn't tell her (it's a scary thought if you don't yet have it in your personal universe). She's a long way from actually doing it. And I know, even if you live hundreds or thousands of miles away it will get you, but the thought of living right on top of it, naw.

no need to worry about location for this volcano, if it erupts everyone worldwide will be done for as it's well known as a possible extinction level event and the possibility isn't in the magnitude, it's in the likelihood of it erupting.

thanks OP for bringing this to our attention and that's why i love this place, so much information our anemic govt. and MSM will never tell us about.

This is not correct.

Firstly, Yellowstone can erupt with two quite different scenarios.

The first and more likely is a steam event. The lake bottom falls to pieces exposing the entire volume of water in the lake to lava and extreme temperatures and you have an explosion. The effect while catastrophic is localized.

The second is a volcanic eruption. Since Yellowstone is located within the Northern Hemisphere the resultant Volcanic Winter would be largely confined to the Northern Hemisphere.

This event can not be classed as an extinction level event since the Southern hemisphere would largely survive.

P

although i agree it could erupt in different ways i do not feel that an "average" eruption of a super volcano will be good in any way shape or form. i wonder what you will do after the eruption happens in the northern hemisphere, with all that radioactive waste from the plethora of nuclear reactors no longer being cooled, starts blowing your way.

yes it's an ELE if it erupts as it has in the past, it will just be a few more months until the southern hemisphere is in nuclear meltdown as well.

Originally posted by TrueAmerican
Folks, no question at all that this is seismicity. I've got spectro on it, and been at this way too long to confuse these signatures with anything BUT seismicity.

I have an email off to my contacts already, so let's see if I can bring you any more info.

I am hoping these aren't happening near the big bulge at the bottom of the Lake.

As usual, we are running a bit ahead of updates from the UoU:
www.seis.utah.edu...

They are not showing it yet, but it's a weekend, so probably tomorrow they will start backfilling the events.

edit on Sun Jan 6th 2013 by TrueAmerican because: (no reason given)

I dunno much about volcanic activity.............youre the expert here but....

Even if it is happening at that part of the lake........with as huge as this thing is, it doesnt mean an eruption is imminent even in the next 50 years really does it?

I mean, that kind of pressure would really really really have to build for a long time wouldnt it, to pop that cork?

Or am i wrong?

reply to post by LittleBlackEagle


Just because Yellowstone has the capacity to be a super volcano, it doesn't mean that any eruption would be of a super-volcanic nature. That would only be the case if the caldera collapsed and caused a hyper eruption, with vents opening all over.

By far the most likely volcanic eruptions at Yellowstone (and every other super volcano world wide) are small scale volcanic eruptions. Volcanic eruptions happen regularly. Super-volcanic eruptions not so much.........

And no, they are not necessarily ELE's. That would depend upon many factors, starting with the scale of the eruption. Even the Deccan Traps took millions of years to destroy large quantities of life. Toba nearly did for humans but i suspect there are various reasons for that, for example location of global populations during this era.

Thanks TA for keeping us informed as I check USGS frequently but do not keep up with the macro's or ones under 2.5. I would..... but I have you watching for me.. THANKS!!!!! xoxox

Hoping for an update soon too.

It looks like University of Utah has begun posting locations for the recent EQs:

Source--USGS recent quakes page

In the middle of the lake. The depths are all over the place: some 11 kms and a few as shallow as 1.5 and 1.8 kms.

Here is the Utah Yellowstone map and earthquake listing link.

reply to post by Olivine


lol, I was about to post how I had been picking up activity closer to the north side of the Lake seismometers.

That has been just in the last half day or so, so I think my source was not aware of those yet when I last updated info from them.

But in any case, YS has had lake swarms before, of course, so it's not unprecedented, it's just that out of all the spots to have quakes, I just wish they'd stay away from the bulge. *gulp*

MamaJ, thanks, was about to update you with that, but Oli beat me to it.

EDIT: and oh yeah, turns out I was right on the money with the S&P differentials. Quakes did happen about 4 km from PB.B944. Ok, I can get on with my life now.

TrueAmerican, why didnt you post this in the Whats Going on at Yellowstone thread?? Its still there waiting for the beast to awaken once again. One thing id like to note, this seems to start in the winter every time. I will be following to see if she lets out a couple thousand yet again!!

It could take a number of small quakes to trigger the big one....just sayin

Here is one of the best explanations of what a full scale eruption at Yellowstone would be like. It is a docudrama produced by the Discovery Channel. A long viewing, but well worth it.

Well fortunately they are not happening where the bulge is, since that is on the north side of the lake. The bulge is an uplifted area they suspect is being caused by accumulations of gas rather than magma, but more research is being done, according to the USGS. From their FAQ page on it:

Is there a bulge beneath the lake?

Mapping of the lake bottom has revealed a variety of faults, hot springs and craters beneath Yellowstone Lake. In a scientific report by Morgan et al., 2003, one feature was informally named the "inflated plain" by USGS researcher Lisa Morgan, who organized surveys of the lake beginning in 1999. In mapping the entire lake, she and her colleagues identified a region about 2,000 feet long that rises about 100 feet above the lake floor. The area is in the northern part of Yellowstone Lake, south-southwest of Storm Point. The area is home to many hot springs and the nearby sediments have undergone chemical changes (alteration) due to the flow of thermal water.

Why was it called the "inflated plain"?

Seismic images of the lake sediments in this area show that they were tilted, hinting that the region may have been pushed up or "inflated." The amount of inflation would be much less than the 100-foot height of the feature, but is currently unknown. The images appear to indicate that the uplift is associated with accumulation of gas from Yellowstone's hydrothermal (hot water) system. Similar inferred gas accumulations were also noted elsewhere within the lake. Future research will assess the amount of uplift and its origin, whether by gas buildup or other potential mechanisms.

Has the "inflated plain" been growing?

At present, there is no evidence of recent growth of any features beneath the lake, and there is no indication that residents or visitors are in any danger. Temperature measurements from hydrothermal vents taken this year indicate no change in temperatures compared to those taken last year. The feature may have been there for decades or much longer.
So what's the big deal?

There may be none. This region has active hydrothermal features, and possibly some uplift. It's possible that the area could host future hydrothermal explosions, but so could other areas beneath the lake and other areas within the Park.

volcanoes.usgs.gov...

visit link for map and more info.

Who knows, maybe all these new quakes are making another bulge in the lake floor. Yellowstone is like the government- bulging, filled with hot gas, and nearly ready to explode!

I'm not an expert, but that doesn't seem like volcanic tremor, more like tectonic source. I don't see harmonic pattern there, and volcanic tremors tends to cause longer shakes. These are just spikes.

I can see about 4 foreshocks, then actual quake and aftershock. As you notice, the pattern stabilizes after the strongest one.

With from 24" to 70" of snow, there is a substantial amount of weight pushing down. Many years have been much deeper. My parents lived just west of Yelowstone in Island Park and I remember one year where their cabin was only accessible by digging down about three feet to reach roof level and then digging down to the awning level where there was some room between the snow pack and the ground. This afforded a small space clear of snow to the front door. I would guesstimate a depth of 16-17ish feet of snow. This was in 1997. While it is still the beginning of a 6 month winter season, the snowfalls have been every which way but regular. Weight.... snow weight. I think you might find swarms every year about this time as the snow accumulates.
Year rounders had summertime storage platforms for their snowmobiles at different levels, oftentimes at roof level and second story access was the mode of entry. Many summertime only visitors would ask why the snowmobiles were up in the air ? I guess they were unfamiliar with the mountains and the winter snows. Others like my parents got us kids to dig them a path down.

Ok so, been picking up some signals at YS Lake, on the north side by the bulge in the last day or two, and to be honest I really don't know what to make of them. They are low level amplitude, and usually I'd just write it off as noise- but these contain real low frequencies, and most noise sits above that in the spectrum. Not always, but just wondering what the heck is going on here. They are also very long period, and I seriously hope what we are not seeing here is faint, real deep magma movements, coming possibly from the bottom of the massive magma chamber, real deep.

They are mostly seen at PB.B208- but apparently some of it visible at LKWY and YLA, and seen some at YLT too.



Here's B208 webi, so you can get an idea:
www.iris.edu...

Hmm, just keeping my eyes glued to the thing, frankly. I don't like it. Not one bit.

I converted a portion of the B208 signatures to audio a while ago...and no, that don't sound good.