So writes popular collapse blogger Ran Prieur.
January 1, 2013. This page is retired. Ten years ago it really seemed like the whole system was about to come apart. People who saw a crash coming
were seeing things that were being ignored by people who expected business as usual. Yet we were still wrong. After seeing how little daily life has
changed after the 2008 financial collapse, seven years with global oil production on a plateau, and two catastrophic hurricanes, I think the big
mistake of doomers was assuming that failures would have positive feedback like a house of cards. At this point, anyone still using the "house of
cards" metaphor is not a serious analyst but an entertainer. It's clear that the interconnectedness of modern complex systems makes them stronger, not
Here is his original page which he has maintained for close to ten years:
And the caveat now there:
Spring, 2008. When I started this page four years ago, everyone thought that industrial society would keep thriving forever, and I wanted to
balance that with evidence that it's going to crash. Now everyone thinks it's going to crash, but I'm shocked at how many blows it has taken and how
little has changed in daily life, so I'm leaning back to the other side: that we'll get a depression, a shakeout of the tech system, but no big crash.
I don't even think "crash" or "collapse" are good metaphors, because they imply a change so fast you can't even run, when real changes are slower than
grass growing. I'm tempted to kill this page, but I'm keeping it around for reference.
His sentiments echo my own, though I hardly realized it. When I read it, it just really dawned on me that he is totally right.
We've had years of endless war, Katrina, Sandy, Haiti Quake, Japan Quake, Asian Tsunami, the 2008 Economic Crash, various Bubbles burst and....we're
Even with the latest 2012 hype, we all wondered at some level but mostly just giggled.
I guess what he is saying is that the world is resilient, far more than it may even feel. All of this connectivity makes us keep on keeping on when a
blow strikes us - we may stumble, we may stagger but we keep getting up, like we have done throughout human history. Like the Chinese Proverb
goes..."Fall down seven times, get up eight."
Ran is really more of a Philosopher than anything so I will keep on reading his regular blog. It's refreshing to know that a really smart person can
change their view without any ego attached to being incorrect. We need more of that in this world if we really want to solve some of the issues we
I'm wondering if any ATS members have had this realization too? Or do you think we're still at a precipice?
edit on 1/5/2013 by kosmicjack because: (no reason given)