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January 1, 2013. This page is retired. Ten years ago it really seemed like the whole system was about to come apart. People who saw a crash coming were seeing things that were being ignored by people who expected business as usual. Yet we were still wrong. After seeing how little daily life has changed after the 2008 financial collapse, seven years with global oil production on a plateau, and two catastrophic hurricanes, I think the big mistake of doomers was assuming that failures would have positive feedback like a house of cards. At this point, anyone still using the "house of cards" metaphor is not a serious analyst but an entertainer. It's clear that the interconnectedness of modern complex systems makes them stronger, not weaker.
Spring, 2008. When I started this page four years ago, everyone thought that industrial society would keep thriving forever, and I wanted to balance that with evidence that it's going to crash. Now everyone thinks it's going to crash, but I'm shocked at how many blows it has taken and how little has changed in daily life, so I'm leaning back to the other side: that we'll get a depression, a shakeout of the tech system, but no big crash. I don't even think "crash" or "collapse" are good metaphors, because they imply a change so fast you can't even run, when real changes are slower than grass growing. I'm tempted to kill this page, but I'm keeping it around for reference.
Originally posted by kosmicjack
I'm wondering if any ATS members have had this realization too? Or do you think we're still at a precipice?
I guess what he is saying is that the world is resilient, far more than it may even feel. All of this connectivity makes us keep on keeping on when a blow strikes us - we may stumble, we may stagger but we keep getting up, like we have done throughout human history. Like the Chinese Proverb goes..."Fall down seven times, get up eight."
“The end-of-history effect may represent a failure in personal imagination,” said Dan P. McAdams, a psychologist at Northwestern who has done separate research into the stories people construct about their past and future lives. He has often heard people tell complex, dynamic stories about the past but then make vague, prosaic projections of a future in which things stay pretty much the same.
Perhaps what we are seeing in the attempt to boost global economic growth that is still costing trillions upon trillions of dollars with no seeming end in sight, is the avoidance of a hard, and very disruptive, landing.
Perhaps what we are seeing in the attempt to boost global economic growth