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A Test in Precognition - Bicycle Deck of 52 Cards

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posted on Jan, 4 2013 @ 03:22 PM
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reply to post by VeritasAequitas
 


Considering that the red/black test is 50/50 I think that you need many more rounds of tests to determine what you claim. You need an average of correct guesses over time and prepare a normal distribution curve to really see what the results mean and what the standard deviation is.




posted on Jan, 4 2013 @ 07:52 PM
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Regardless of the experiment's design or scientific relevance, what the OP suggests is something to try for oneself. The point of this thread isn't to convince anyone of anything, especially someone who's been taught that psychic phenomena doesn't exist. The OP is simply offering up a way to help a willing individual retrieve and develop skills that might otherwise lie needlessly dormant. Don't like it? Don't do it. Sound interesting? Try it at home.



posted on Jan, 5 2013 @ 02:08 AM
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Originally posted by OptimusSubprime
reply to post by VeritasAequitas
 


Considering that the red/black test is 50/50 I think that you need many more rounds of tests to determine what you claim. You need an average of correct guesses over time and prepare a normal distribution curve to really see what the results mean and what the standard deviation is.


Unfortunately it's not going to be 50/50. And, if you want to be precise, the distribution of the correct guesses is not normally distributed either. The more serious issue in analysis is that it is extremely likely the expected percentage correct changes over time in an unpredictable manner. With repeated trials using a full deck, it's reasonable to expect the subconscious mind will begin to track and influence the results. How well this occurs will depend both on the "training" the subconscious mind has had AND the specific order of the cards in the deck being used in any given trial.

To whit, if the deck has a large surplus of red cards at the front, you will be unable to avoid noticing that and guess more blacks towards the back of the deck.

That's why I recommended to draw one card (not the top card), guess, record the result, reinsert the card, and reshuffle -- for each guess! Guessing all 52 before looking at results isn't quite as good as the above because you will likely notice if you had too many red or black guesses and adjust your pattern.

BTW: the data posted by the OP right at the start would be statistically significant (2-sided alpha = 0.05) under an assumption of fully independent guesses with a probability of a correct guess = 0.5. Calling this proof of some form of ESP however is not possible because the guessing is confounded with possible subconscious tracking. Belief that the significance implies precognition is merely a belief precisely because of the confounding.



posted on Jan, 5 2013 @ 08:59 AM
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reply to post by BayesLike
 


Isn't it your subconscious that is responsible for ESP? What is the subconscious but a form of your higher self; the soul? Besides; if my subconscious has the ability to track cards in a deck without me even realizing it; after it has been shuffled, I would call that pretty much an ability, whether fully precognition or not. I'm not saying this will train you to pick winning lottery numbers; but it has other uses.

My subconscious can then do things that my conscious mind doesn't; so does that mean my subconscious can do trigonometry, quantum physics, or essentially anything else that I wouldn't normally know? Apparently it holds knowledge that my conscious mind does not have access to. And if I can train it to 'present' that knowledge as I'd like, then by all means I'm gonna keep going.
edit on 5-1-2013 by VeritasAequitas because: (no reason given)



posted on Jan, 5 2013 @ 12:10 PM
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Isn't it your subconscious that is responsible for ESP?

There is not a single piece of evidence of there existing such phenomena as "ESP".
Also, "subconscious" is not a specific definition of anything, let alone responsible for something that does not exist.



What is the subconscious but a form of your higher self;

As said above.. it's hard to define.
A safe thing to say is that it takes care of "everything" that our narrow ability to focus cannot do at once.
Most people can't even read and follow a book and actively listen to a conversation at the same time.
So, it's a good thing that something takes care of tasks such as breathing, walking, riding a bike, driving a car, while we do something else.

How you'd see this as a "higher self" is puzzling.



the soul?

There is nothing that points towards there existing a "soul".



Besides; if my subconscious has the ability to track cards in a deck without me even realizing it; after it has been shuffled, I would call that pretty much an ability, whether fully precognition or not. I'm not saying this will train you to pick winning lottery numbers; but it has other uses.

Yes, just like walking or driving a car while doing something else. Except I don't know what the use of counting cards is unless you do that for a living.



My subconscious can then do things that my conscious mind doesn't; so does that mean my subconscious can do trigonometry, quantum physics, or essentially anything else that I wouldn't normally know?

Seeing that you have a long way to knowing the above topics, trying to learn it "subconsciously" sounds improbable and very inefficient.



Apparently it holds knowledge that my conscious mind does not have access to. And if I can train it to 'present' that knowledge as I'd like, then by all means I'm gonna keep going.

Yes, I'd also like my subconscious to be to only part of my brain to know how to pump my heart.
edit on 5-1-2013 by Nevertheless because: (no reason given)



posted on Jan, 5 2013 @ 12:28 PM
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reply to post by Nevertheless
 


I can see your agenda at hand; and I don't agree...Try astral projecting a few times...Not even your beloved science as an explanation except "It's all in the mind." Except what is reality but a perception of the mind. I won't argue, because this isn't a pissing contest. It is about exercises to boost your precognition/subconscious perception or however else you want to put it.

www.tubeplus.me...

By the way; here is the link to the Numb3rs episode where this exercise was featured...It is about 20 minutes into the video that the test takes place.

It is a good episode that touches on parapsychological phenomena.

Black or Red : Correct : 36, Incorrect : 16
edit on 5-1-2013 by VeritasAequitas because: (no reason given)



posted on Jan, 5 2013 @ 12:54 PM
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Originally posted by VeritasAequitas
Black or Red : Correct : 36, Incorrect : 16
edit on 5-1-2013 by VeritasAequitas because: (no reason given)


I'm assuming you are reinserting the card and reshuffling now?
Are you aware that there is a guy who is willing to give you 1 million dollars if you demonstrate this?
Would you like to have the money?



posted on Jan, 5 2013 @ 12:55 PM
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reply to post by Nevertheless
 


To get them all right, or how many? Besides, whoever said I'm interested in money?



posted on Jan, 5 2013 @ 01:45 PM
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Originally posted by VeritasAequitas
reply to post by Nevertheless
 


To get them all right, or how many? Besides, whoever said I'm interested in money?


No, getting them all right is not necessary. Only that it's statistically significant.
No one said you're interested in money, but it seems quite silly to say no to a million dollars if you'll only have to guess at some cards - which you're doing for fun now anyway.
Also, if you really don't want the money, you can give them to me or a charity of your choice.
Or, you could do it but simply say no to the money altogether, you'd still make humanity a massive favor by proving ESP.

So, what will it be?



posted on Jan, 5 2013 @ 04:21 PM
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reply to post by Nevertheless
 


I don't have the need to 'prove' anything; it's petty. I don't want the money, because quite simply nothing at all that you have in this material world interests me. I'm far more interested in the immaterial. There are also people that offer money to prove God's existence, doesn't make it okay. Sure, I could go through, shuffle a bunch of cards, and guess what they would be, but I'm sure the game/rules would be changed, a moving of goalposts.

You won't goad me into doing this so you might as well stop. Why not try the exercises out for yourself and see how you do? It's not something that I alone can do, just like Quarterbacks aren't the only ones who can throw a football. Some are just more naturally talented. Why not train yourself using the same exercises and earn the money yourself?

I would also like to point out that ESP has already been proven in a sense, the information regarding the CIA and Project Stargate was very much real.

Project Stargate

You can't dismiss subjective or anecdotal evidence because you can't see it for yourself. If I tell you, that I can do a butterfly kick, but you've never seen one, does that mean I'm lying? If I said I dreamed about seeing such and such a place, how would you go about proving me wrong, other than trying to think of a million logical responses? That's the main problem with proving anything these days; Angels, Demons, UFO's, ESP, sensitive subjects in general...If I said I seen an angel, you would rationalize that as my brain suffering from Schizophrenia, which is nothing more than an abnormal tryptophan metabolism. What if I saw a UFO that flashed bright lights and disappeared? It's swamp gas, chinese lanterns, Venus, etc...Need I really go on?

I apologize but I refuse to dance to the tune of a puppet master. I will keep my exercises, which are just that; exercises. And you can try them and come to your own conclusions. I know what you are trying to do; I've read your post history. I won't go along with your agenda friend. But I still respect you.
edit on 5-1-2013 by VeritasAequitas because: (no reason given)



posted on Jan, 5 2013 @ 04:35 PM
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en.wikipedia.org...

Yeah, no thanks. He can keep his money..

en.wikipedia.org...




Skeptics such as Paul Kurtz and Ray Hyman say that DuBois does not have psychic powers.[5] Skeptic James Randi says that people such as DuBois give the appearance of psychic powers through cold reading techniques. For example, DuBois, when doing her first reading of Schwartz, told him that his deceased friend was telling her, "I don't walk alone," which Schwartz understood to be a reference to his friend's confinement to a wheelchair, which DuBois could not have known about. Randi says that Schwartz leapt to an unsupportable conclusion, since the notion of "not walking alone" can mean any number of things, and "certainly does not describe being in a wheelchair." Randi also asserts that experiments that allegedly yield positive results of psychic powers, such as the ones done with DuBois, are not conducted using proper scientific controls.


The usual skeptic BS.....Not saying that you should believe everything you hear; but being skeptical of everything in a "Show me the money" fashion is just taking it to the extreme...
edit on 5-1-2013 by VeritasAequitas because: (no reason given)



posted on Jan, 5 2013 @ 04:47 PM
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reply to post by VeritasAequitas
 





are not conducted using proper scientific controls.


One question for you: How does science prove that which is not scientific? It can't...So to view everything through the lens of such a perspective, is limiting the scope of the lens.



posted on Jan, 5 2013 @ 05:07 PM
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Originally posted by VeritasAequitas
reply to post by Nevertheless
 


I don't have the need to 'prove' anything; it's petty.

You've gone into great length telling about what you are able to do here. And now you don't want to prove it given the opportunity?



I don't want the money, because quite simply nothing at all that you have in this material world interests me.

Even if I respect such an opinion. It is the standard answer to a person who claims to be able to do something impossible and is therefore offered money as a reward.

But as I said, you don't have to take the money. Of course, if I were you, I'd take it and use it to build/run an organisation devoted for immaterial things. Unfortunately, money is required in this world, but you can use it to focus on immaterial wealth.

Or, don't take any money at all and just make the world a huge immaterial favor by showing that there is more to life than what is known. Why would you not want to share this?



I'm far more interested in the immaterial. There are also people that offer money to prove God's existence, doesn't make it okay.

Sure it makes it okay? Why wouldn't it? All religions welcome that the word is spread. Otherwise the religion wouldn't be spread.
Also, do you realize that if they say that it is not okay to do it for money, they could do it for no cost. It's okay, but they don't do it anyway?
Could it be because they can't, and saying no to money because it's wrong is a very bad excuse as they didn't do it for free. That's laughable.



Sure, I could go through, shuffle a bunch of cards, and guess what they would be, but I'm sure the game/rules would be changed, a moving of goalposts.

No, the rules are set beforehand and are very strict. It is not possible to do science by changing rules and moving goalposts.



You won't goad me into doing this so you might as well stop.

I know I can't. At first it seemed like you actually believed in this yourself, and I assisted you in finding the "problem". But now it seems that you are either fooling yourself or lying to others.

You not wanting to give a shot at proving this gift that has never been confirmed by mankind is saddening and suggests that something's not right.
The fact is that every single person who is claiming "supernatural" things eventually refuse to prove it.
And, that's why it is nonsense.



Why not try the exercises out for yourself and see how you do?

Because, like every common person - I can't do it. I have guessed on many occasions, and the result is what is to be expected.



It's not something that I alone can do,

Yes, there are probably many others who for some reason claim they can do such a thing, yet for an even more mysterious reason won't show it.



just like Quarterbacks aren't the only ones who can throw a football. Some are just more naturally talented. Why not train yourself using the same exercises and earn the money yourself?

Because I can't beat random.



I would also like to point out that ESP has already been proven in a sense

"In a sense"? No it hasn't.



, the information regarding the CIA and Project Stargate was very much real.

What "information" is real?
Project Stargate was very much real, yes. And so was the result of it. What is your point?



You can't dismiss subjective or anecdotal evidence because you can't see it for yourself.

Anecdotes are not evidence. They are anecdotes.



If I tell you, that I can do a butterfly kick, but you've never seen one, does that mean I'm lying?

Of course not. Why would it?
It means that you have made a statement of which I can't draw any conclusions. Just like with your cards.
What was the point of that question?



If I said I dreamed about seeing such and such a place, how would you go about proving me wrong,

I can't, per definition. It's the burden of the teller to prove it. However, in this interesting case, you can't prove it either. What is your point?



That's the main problem with proving anything these days; Angels, Demons, UFO's, ESP, sensitive subjects in general...

You have the possibility to prove your skill. But YOU REFUSE. That is the one and only problem.



If I said I seen an angel, you would rationalize that as my brain suffering from Schizophrenia,

Something like that, probably. However, in your case there are no such obstacles, still you're making it it deliberately impossible. What does it say about you?



What if I saw a UFO that flashed bright lights and disappeared? It's swamp gas, chinese lanterns, Venus, etc...Need I really go on?

UFOs usually turn out to be such things. Hence the name. What is the point of this question?



posted on Jan, 5 2013 @ 05:15 PM
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Originally posted by VeritasAequitas
The usual skeptic BS.....Not saying that you should believe everything you hear; but being skeptical of everything in a "Show me the money" fashion is just taking it to the extreme...
edit on 5-1-2013 by VeritasAequitas because: (no reason given)


Holy cow-animal.. Did you really take that quote as something positive as the side of the "Psychic"?
That must be one of the worst hits ever.

"I don't walk alone" is supposed to give the reaction that you think of someone very close to that person, and if there is no such person, then it's you! *gasp*
However, obviously, since this dead guy happened to be in a wheelchair, that was the first association.

Shouldn't the Psychic have been ridiculed for quoting a dead guy in a wheelchair saying "I don't walk alone"?



posted on Jan, 5 2013 @ 05:19 PM
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Originally posted by VeritasAequitas
One question for you: How does science prove that which is not scientific? It can't...So to view everything through the lens of such a perspective, is limiting the scope of the lens.


How do you mean "not scientific"?
You seem to be unfamiliar with science and the scientific method.
If there are such forces in the universe that allows ESP, then they will, [once discovered] be a part of science.
Science does however not take in nonsensical claims and try to prove them, because it is impossible for the simple fact that nonsense doesn't exist and therefore you can't find it.

In your case however, you are claiming that you can pull off results that are statistically impossible, hinting at some unknown force. This is perfectly fine.
If we can, in a controlled environment make you give results that are statistically significant (which you claim) then we are done! We have found something new and exciting.

It is as simple as that.
edit on 5-1-2013 by Nevertheless because: (no reason given)
edit on 5-1-2013 by Nevertheless because: (no reason given)



posted on Jan, 5 2013 @ 08:44 PM
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reply to post by Nevertheless
 


Did you miss part of the grey area?




The Gray Area is a discussion forum that provides a dedicated area for members to post their confessions, disclosures, and related extraordinary personal experiences. Like the highly speculative Skunk Works forum, The Gray Area will tolerate topics that may be unusually hypothetical or unproven for the purpose of vetting the stories of thread-starters by the ATS membership at large.


I now have to perform under scientific study that I can back up something that I practice to fulfill some sort of weird unknown and likely insane fantasy of yours, that you actually run zero. I recorded a video of me just now, where I ran off the deck with my eye closed, which I only opened at one point to check on how well the cards were stacking into one pile. Red or Black, Correct:33, Incorrect:19.

Does it count if my eyes were closed? That's the thing you 'scientific' and 'skeptic' sorts don't get about things like this. Most of the time it doesn't work when you want it to. It has a mind of it's own and that is why Allison DuBois wasn't childish enough to cater to his whims. It doesn't work like that. ESP is a natural evolutionary ability of humanity. We all have it, but it doesn't work when we want it to, especially because nobody actively tries to train for anything like that. It's a muscle that is never used. Most people spend their lives poisoning their bodies, watching TV, and basically wasting it. We can't control when we do it, and neither can you. The only thing you can do about it, is attempt to actively develop it, to gain some kind of control..

I guess the CIA spent a lot of money researching into something that obviously had no merit, huh?

Overall, you are in the wrong section if you want to be demanding people to prove something. I don't feel the need or inclination to prove anything to you. I have no reason to lie, and it is a common character assassination technique to belittle somebody that won't prove something to satisfy the whims of person they could know less about.

I'm not claiming to be psychic. It's an exercise I thought about and started practicing. These are the results I've gotten. Yes, the goal posts are very much moved. I played the same game that was supposed to have such a statistical odd; watch it, they count the cards straight.. I've gotten 33, and 19, and the original scores. These were all broken up. I'd miss a few cards back to back or one every now and then. That was just the total.

Then it get's changed to, "You need to shuffle, draw, shuffle, draw...." Hence, goal posts moved. I would like to see your scores doing the same exercises I outlined so that I know what 'everybody else' got.
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posted on Jan, 5 2013 @ 08:48 PM
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reply to post by Nevertheless
 





Because, like every common person - I can't do it. I have guessed on many occasions, and the result is what is to be expected.


And what were those results?



posted on Jan, 6 2013 @ 02:43 AM
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Originally posted by VeritasAequitas
reply to post by Nevertheless
 


Did you miss part of the grey area?

No, I did not.




The Gray Area is a discussion forum that provides a dedicated area for members to post their confessions, disclosures, and related extraordinary personal experiences. Like the highly speculative Skunk Works forum, The Gray Area will tolerate topics that may be unusually hypothetical or unproven for the purpose of vetting the stories of thread-starters by the ATS membership at large.


Tolerating does not mean I can't help you realize that there is nothing in it, or help you actually prove this fantastic idea, or giving you reasons why you are not telling the truth.



I now have to perform under scientific study that I can back up something that I practice to fulfill some sort of weird unknown and likely insane fantasy of yours

You don't have to. You'd just bring in great immaterial wealth into this world by showing that it is possible. Not only bringing this to the people, but also "owning science" and make it accept it.
It has very little to do with me. I'm just a vehicle to make this happen or showing that like all such claims in the past, you too refuse to simply prove it.



Does it count if my eyes were closed?

Claiming that your eyes were closed does obviously not change anything.
But it's a good thing you said that you can do it with your eyes closed, because that means blind-folding you is not a problem.



That's the thing you 'scientific' and 'skeptic' sorts don't get about things like this. Most of the time it doesn't work when you want it to.

Excuse me? It doesn't work when someone who wants proof asks for it? Fantastic.
But didn't you just say that you beat statistical random?



It doesn't work like that. ESP is a natural evolutionary ability of humanity.

Could you please explain how you know this and how it is tied to the evolution of humanity?



I guess the CIA spent a lot of money researching into something that obviously had no merit, huh?

Actually, the result was a bit of a success. They researched and learned.



Overall, you are in the wrong section if you want to be demanding people to prove something. I don't feel the need or inclination to prove anything to you.

I'm not demanding. I'm just making a point that there's nothing there.



I have no reason to lie, and it is a common character assassination technique to belittle somebody that won't prove something to satisfy the whims of person they could know less about.

It's a common technique to see what is nonsense and what is not.



I'm not claiming to be psychic.

Neither am I, nor do I care what you are or claim to be. I'm only interested in the card-exercise and that you claim to beat random selection.



It's an exercise I thought about and started practicing. These are the results I've gotten. Yes, the goal posts are very much moved. I played the same game that was supposed to have such a statistical odd; watch it, they count the cards straight.. I've gotten 33, and 19, and the original scores. These were all broken up. I'd miss a few cards back to back or one every now and then. That was just the total.

But your original game was flawed. You can improve if you improve your counting.



Then it get's changed to, "You need to shuffle, draw, shuffle, draw...." Hence, goal posts moved.

Now, this is a blatant lie. No one in the right mind would accept your original exercise because it is flawed.
I tried to explain to you why your original test is not a test of ESP, but card counting.

There is an easy way to make a sanity check on video.
1. Hands & cards are visible and on the table at all times.
2. Shuffle.
3. Have the cards in a deck face down on the table.
4. If you think the card is red, take it with your left hand and put it in a left pile. If you think the card is black, take it with your right hand and put it in the right hand pile. Still without looking at the cards.
5. When all cards are taken, flip the left-hand side pile over and count the reds. Flip the right hand side over and count the blacks.
6. Do steps 1-5 10 times.

You do understand that even I could still fake this on video. And get 100% correct if I so wished.
For a "real" test, obviously it has to be done in a controlled environment "live".

However, that's also a way for you to do your exercises without having to reshuffle all the time.
Good luck.



posted on Jan, 6 2013 @ 02:44 AM
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Originally posted by VeritasAequitas
reply to post by Nevertheless
 





Because, like every common person - I can't do it. I have guessed on many occasions, and the result is what is to be expected.


And what were those results?

Random.



posted on Jan, 6 2013 @ 02:53 AM
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Originally posted by BayesLike
reply to post by BayesLike
 


BTW: It's extremely difficult to separate "proof" of precognition, telekinesis, and clairvoyance. How can you know which occurs: looking into the future when the resulting draw is revealed, the current condition is being read, or if you influenced the shuffle results? Part of the problem is caused by recording anything and part of the problem is that a psuedo-random choice was made that could have been affected.

This was part of the problem behind the procedures at Duke many decades ago.


Yeah, that. It's impossible to separate out the confounders.

What's worse with cards is that you are almost bound to have unshuffled sequences, and your memory/subconscious is crafty at recalling them.

That's not saying that something isn't actually happening. If it's precog, clairvoyance or tk is hard to say. Also, I'm not discounting the ability of your subconscious to predict things accurately based on minute sensory data.

(sheepishly) I can at times do this, have actually been escorted out of a casino once for screwing up a roulette game. It's embarrassing for an empiricist such as myself, since I don't believe I can do it.





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