reply to post by dogstar23
What's up friend I dig your style. You've got a pretty interesting account name for someone who alledgedly knows nothing. I like speculating and
hopefully predicting markets as well. I like your take on things, it's pretty optimistic which I respect. My expectations are somewhat more bleak by
appearance, but keep in mind I am not being negative about this, just predicting the markets based on past experience. I'm sorry if I come across as
critiquing you, don't take it personally I am just comparing our predictions. I don't have a clue about unemployment so I'm just going to skip
creating some foolish commentary / predictions about that.
But oil! Now that's something I can speculate on.
"Oil (around the same time) will briefly dip to around $60/barrel, settling in around $80/barrel. "
That would be nice! I think oil prices should stabilize up here and generally become bearish until the market re-adjusts. I doubt we will see prices
under $80 a barrel. Personally I think all this inflation has done alot to stabilize commodity prices, but increased money supply will mean increased
demand, so even with a growing supply oil prices should remain pretty steady. I think we will trade in a tight range - between $80-$90 for the most
And of course I have to jump in with thoughts about the DJIA.
"The DJIA will break over 16,000 before settling in closer to 14,500."
That is a phenominal prediction in my opinion, because to me it looks as if we are due to repeat the 1990 recession judging by all the indicators that
I thought were most important on a macro-scale. I am expecting we would only break out to new highs so big money can sell on the rest of us before
leading us into a contraction. I doubt we will break $15,000, I anticipate we will only hold above $14,000 for a breif period of time, 2 quarters
tops. I predict the public will be unpleasantly surprised later this year by a severe correction in market value and people will panic just in time
for the big money to step back in supporting the market above $10,000. If we dip under $9,000 the public will have undoubtedly over-reacted IMO. After
that hurdle of a double dip recession scare passes and the bulls feel comfortable stampeding back in I think it should be smooth sailing for the DJIA,
I wouldn't be the least bit surprised if its' value increased past $20,000 before we see 2020. The FED has inflated our currency more than adequetly
enough to account for such enormous potential gains.
And as for gold speculation - one of my favorite topics - you mentioned
"Gold will briefly dip below $1200/oz, but will settle around the $1400-1500 range."
I disagree and do not believe gold will dip below $1,500 anytime this year, I think we have approached an approximate bottom ATM. We will be
accumulating in this range until the bull run has extended to the furthest extent it is capable of this year - and at that point gold will transition
to a very bullish profit cycle for about the millionth time this past century. Check out the NUGT 3x gold index it's looking sweet from a chartists
perspective. On a related note - when looking at gold you have to realize it is turning out to be the biggest bubble of all time, exceeding the real
estate bubble and even fiat currency bubble. As if 1 ounce of gold has equal worth to 1 years worth of basic food. Its' value is increasing due to
inflation of course, and while inflation stays steady the rate the price of gold will continue to increase. So I will get back at you with a kudo's
if gold actually does dip below $1,200. Are you buying options on this prediction? You could haul big profits buying a NUGT put option if it dips that
So in order to take advantage of the potentially turbulent future of the market I will be looking at long-shot options, heavy on puts before I start
picking up calls, VIX, bear 3x index and NUGT 3x gold index most notably, maybe some short-term in the money calls before the bull run is over.
Freaky stuff is always going on with the earth, hope we have another 10,000 years + on the yellowstone bomb clock so we can prepare humanity so we can
stay civilized through the next crisis nature offers us because ATM that would spell the end of civilization as we know it.
And to address the comet - it's about time for asteroid mining don't you think? I think we will see some huge companies begin asteroid mining on
behalf of America this decade. That would be highly economical.
Thanks for the inspiration dogstar, I appreciate it. Get back at me!