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Edsingers Predictions and Results thereof

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posted on Oct, 25 2004 @ 09:36 PM
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Well I am going to make a guess, this is my opinion only but I have looked at the tables and made my adjustments.

My predictions:
Colorado and Pennsylvania goto Bush

Go here and look at the latest. It has Bush by:
www.electoral-vote.com...

Excel to see what you think:
www.electoral-vote.com...

Bush 285 Kerry 247


But I think not....lets see how close I am......NO EDITS!


predictions Kerry Bush Sum
electoral votes 217 321 538


[edit on 4-11-2004 by edsinger]






Actual

Bush 279 + Iowa(7) = 286
Kerry 252


www.electoral-vote.com...


[edit on 4-11-2004 by edsinger]




posted on Oct, 25 2004 @ 09:57 PM
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funny, they just gave us that link today in the politcal/current events meeting at school...anyway,

if you go to the predicted final results (www.electoral-vote.com...) it shows Bush barely winning the electoral with 274 to Kerry's 251. I'm not so sure as to the validity of these predictions, but it does look like Bush has been gaining momentum lately



posted on Oct, 25 2004 @ 11:09 PM
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Edsinger - bold prediction on PA.


I hope your right. I couldn't stand to see my state help sKerry get elected, but alas Philly always seems to go Democratic against the wishes of western PA.

My prediction:
Bush takes Minn while Kerry takes Iowa, Arkansas and Hawaii

Bush: 284
Kerry: 254



posted on Oct, 25 2004 @ 11:16 PM
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Philly always seems to go Democratic against the wishes of western PA.


Aint THAT the truth! I already did my part for the President in PA as an absentee voter. The trouble with PA (it's changing slowly) is the large unionized voter group who vote Democrat just because their local says to. I can't understand why these people are opposed to privatized social security, among other things. I'm a member of ALPA (Airline Pilots Association) and they, as a union, back the Dems. However, I have a hard time finding fellow pilots who are Democrats. The unions need to let their members educate themselves instead of spoon feeding them biased crap.



posted on Oct, 25 2004 @ 11:51 PM
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New data that might be usefule to one tracking the data..


Group 1: Bush 2000 states in play for Kerry

Florida: 27
Ohio: 20
New Hampshire: 4

Group 2: Gore 2000 states leaning Bush

Wisonsin: 10
Iowa: 7
New Mexico: 5
Hawaii: 4

Group 3: Gore 2000 states still in play, but leaning Kerry

Pennsylvania: 20
Michigan: 17
Minnesota: 10 (close)
Oregon: 7

Scenarios

-- Bush takes Ohio & Florida: He wins
-- Kerry takes Ohio: Bush is likely to win by carrying Wisconsin and Iowa from Group 2.
-- Kerry takes Ohio & New Hampshire: Bush is likely to win by carrying Wisconsin and Iowa from Group 2.
-- Kerry takes Florida: Bush still would probably win by taking Wisconsin, Iowa, & either Hawaii or New Mexico.
-- Kerry takes Florida & New Hampshire: Bush has perhaps a bit less than 50 chance of winning because he'll need all of Group 2 or most of Group 2 + a Group 3 State.
-- Kerry takes Florida, Ohio, &/Or New Hampshire: Bush is highly likely to lose. To win, Bush would need either Pennsylvania or Michigan & probably Minnesota to go along with his Group 2 wins.

Summary: The election looks to be centered around Florida and Ohio right now. The latest Zogby Poll (and I think Zogby polling leans left) has Bush at +3 in Florida and +5 in Ohio. That's bad news for Kerry. I also think Minnesota is close to being a Bush leaning state.

On the other hand, Arkansas may be coming into play for Kerry (although there hasn't been a poll showing Kerry ahead in that state since August) and although Bush has had tiny leads in the last two Hawaii polls, it's hard to count on a state that leans to the left that heavily going for Bush. Furthermore, Kerry seems to be pulling away in Michigan.

So with a week to go until election day, Bush is in significantly better position than Kerry, but Kerry is still within striking distance...

www.rightwingnews.com...



posted on Oct, 26 2004 @ 09:06 PM
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if you go to www.electoral-vote.com/pred/index.html today,
they have different predicted results with KERRY winning 271 to 217
now, I think everyone knows who I'd like to win the election (Badnarik) but this is different from just yesterday when Bush was predicted to win on the same site.
I'm not sure on the validility of these predictions, as I'm sure they can't be too accurate



posted on Oct, 26 2004 @ 09:29 PM
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No matter how much I'd like to...this race has too many unknown factors to be claiming any type of victor. The factor of the young voters, I feel, will be the deciding factor of this race. Sure, Bush will win by huge margins in the Cowboy States, but the population centers of the country will be the areas to claim the victory. Bush needs a big boost in the last few days to either: 1) convince the young voters that he is the man, or 2) convince the young voters that they should not vote at all. The first scenario is the least plausable. Unless Bush rolls Bin Ladin out in a steel cage and displays him in a massive celebration like King Kong...it aint happening. The second scenario, seems possible, if Bush throws a Woodstock party the night before, thus creating the worlds biggest hangover and detering the college voters from reaching the polls before they close.

Of course, Bush could always pray for Mount St. Helens to blow.



posted on Oct, 26 2004 @ 09:34 PM
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I see Bush is ekeing this out with twice as many "Barely" states as Kerry. This is going to be close, very close.



posted on Oct, 26 2004 @ 09:39 PM
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Originally posted by Esoterica
I see Bush is ekeing this out with twice as many "Barely" states as Kerry. This is going to be close, very close.


you'll get no argument there, it's going to be VERY close

when looking at the prediction map, keep in mind that they made the assumptions:



- Voters who already have made a choice will stick to it
- The undecideds will break 2:1 for the challenger (Kerry)
- In states where Nader is on the ballot, he will get 1%; otherwise 0% (was 2.74% nationally in 2000)
- The minor candidates such as Badnarik, Cobb, etc. will get 1% of the vote (was 1.01% in 2000)


There is a good chance that one of the "minor candidates" could get more than they're predicting which could throw some of the really close states off IMO


Red

posted on Oct, 26 2004 @ 09:49 PM
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I predict John Kerry will win the elections and become the next president of the United States of America.



posted on Oct, 26 2004 @ 09:53 PM
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Originally posted by UnknownOrigins

you'll get no argument there, it's going to be VERY close

I am getting a feeling that this is going to be even worse than 2000. I mean counting down to even single votes in some areas.



- Voters who already have made a choice will stick to it

I would say by and large this is probably true. At least, 'switchers' should cancel eachother out.

- The undecideds will break 2:1 for the challenger (Kerry)

Makes sense, althoguh 2 to 1 seems a little high.

- In states where Nader is on the ballot, he will get 1%; otherwise 0% (was 2.74% nationally in 2000)

- The minor candidates such as Badnarik, Cobb, etc. will get 1% of the vote (was 1.01% in 2000)


With the way some people hate both candidates, I wouldn't be surprised if these numbers climb, as you said.



posted on Oct, 26 2004 @ 09:53 PM
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I'm still rooting for a tie.

More controversy!



posted on Nov, 4 2004 @ 08:05 PM
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Predicted

My predictions:
Colorado = Correct

Pennsylvania = not even close! ( My one big screw up!)

goto Bush

Bush 285 Kerry 247


Actual

Bush 279 + Iowa(7) = 286
Kerry 252


www.electoral-vote.com...



I would say I was damn close in the final wouldn't you?

Not bad.....




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