Originally posted by MamaJ
reply to post by muzzy
Was there any warning of this???? absolutely! Lucky it wasn't a Mag 6 instead of a Mag 4.7!
What were the warning signs and do you think it could still produce a Mag 6?
taking the 61 earthquakes (foreshocks) in the 148 hrs (6.1days) prior to the 4.7 and using the formula (y = 0.0136x3 - 1683.1x2 + 7E+07x - 1E+12)
gives the polynomial trend (blue) line shown in the graph image below (upwards)
also in the 19 minutes before the 4.7 there were 15 earthquakes
When, Mag, Time before Mainshock
11/03/2013 16:56:06, 4.7, 0:00:00
11/03/2013 16:55:50, 2.3, 0:00:16
11/03/2013 16:55:43, 2.1, 0:00:23
11/03/2013 16:55:21, 1.7, 0:00:45
11/03/2013 16:54:55, 1.1, 0:01:11
11/03/2013 16:54:48, 1.2, 0:01:18
11/03/2013 16:54:20, 1.3, 0:01:46
11/03/2013 16:54:02, 1.3, 0:02:04
11/03/2013 16:51:47, 1.5, 0:04:19
11/03/2013 16:51:25, 1.9, 0:04:41
11/03/2013 16:51:09, 2.3, 0:04:57
11/03/2013 16:50:52, 2.3, 0:05:14
11/03/2013 16:39:02, 1.2, 0:17:04
11/03/2013 16:37:27, 1.6, 0:18:39
11/03/2013 16:36:12, 2.7, 0:19:54
I would say that given the previous 46 earthquakes, then an upsurge in the 20 minutes before the Main Shock of 15 quakes/20 minutes there was adequate
Currently doing a project on L'Aquilla my mind is on what happened there, where there was plenty of warning.
Not so obvious to the analysts in California maybe, because not so many events to work with, but still an alert/warning could have been issued 10
Look at Japan, they have the technology in place and working to give 30 seconds warning across to the other side of the country of a large event
occurring, enough time to prepare/brace yourself, or say if you were working on a 30ft ladder or something? time to climb down so you don't fall on
your head when the quake hits. (assuming its a text alert on your mobile phone)
Of course this doesn't work everywhere, California (San Andreas in particular) is one of the few areas where there are foreshocks to Main quakes on a
I hope someone at USGS studies all these earthquake series and can see the same thing happening. How long do they wait before alerting the public, 100
Brawley was a classic example, they waited until the Mag 5's before anything was said, luckily some folks on ATS seen the trend going on.
A Mag 6?, of course, WHEN is the big question.
edit on 13-3-2013 by muzzy because: just couldn't get a clean post!, even doing it on Notepad I didn't see I had a ? in the wrong
Of course the people who find the earthquakes haven't got the time to analyze them right away, but given the billions of $ damage that a even a
moderate-strong quake can cause and the deaths and injuries resulting, wouldn't it make sense to have a few people on a $50,000 a year salary sitting
around keeping an eye on the incoming data? The more time spent doing it the better they would get at it. There are plenty of people out there
looking for a job. Put them on something useful rather than paying them to sit at home on the dole.
Even the Insurance industry could fund it.
Geonet (NZ) is partly funded by the Earthquake Commission (which partly pays out for damage caused by earthquakes), but it doesn't go far enough
edit on 13-3-2013 by muzzy because: (no reason given)