Quake Watch 2013

Update ; only in Japanese

Press release with provisional magnitude 6.5

www.jma.go.jp/jma/press/1302/03a/201302030120.html

translate.google.com/translate?hl=en-US&langpair=ja|en&u=http://www.jma.go.jp/jma/press/1302/03a/201302030120.html

10:13 3 February
M6.5 quake hits Japan's Hokkaido, relation with 2011 quake unclear

TOKYO, Feb. 3, Kyodo

english.kyodonews.jp/news/2013/02/207390.html

An earthquake with a preliminary magnitude of 6.5 struck Japan's northernmost prefecture of Hokkaido late Saturday, leading to highway closures and causing blackouts in some areas, the weather agency and local officials said.

There were no reports of serious damage or nuclear power plant irregularities, with only a dozen of people sustaining minor injuries, they said. No tsunami occurred.

It is unclear whether there is any relation between the 11:17 p.m. Saturday temblor, the focus of which was the central part of the Tokachi region in Hokkaido at a depth of about 108 kilometers, and the March 2011 devastating quake that hit northeastern Japan, the Japan Meteorological Agency said early Sunday.

The latest quake registered upper 5 on the Japanese seismic intensity scale of 7 in Kushiro, Nemuro and Urahoro in the eastern part of Hokkaido, and lower 5 in Obihiro and other parts of the prefecture as well as in Higashidori, Aomori Prefecture, according to the agency.

The agency, which revised its magnitude from 6.4, advised residents to remain alert in the week ahead for aftershocks measuring up to around 4 on the Japanese scale.

Significant seismic activity has been recorded on the Pacific coast side of Hokkaido, with a magnitude 6.6 quake occurring in January 1987 near the epicenter of the latest one and M8.0 quake off the coast of Tokachi in September 2003.

"We cannot tell if the latest quake could touch off a bigger one. But please continue exercising caution," said Akira Nagai of the agency.

According to prefectural government officials, at least 12 people were slightly injured in the latest quake. Some fell or sustained cuts from breaking glass or sharp objects, while others received burns or were hit by falling objects, they said.

Hokkaido Electric Power Co. said there have been no abnormalities at its nuclear power plant in the village of Tomari in southwestern Hokkaido.

Tohoku Electric Power Co. also said no irregularities have been found at its nuclear power plant in the village of Higashidori, Aomori Prefecture, while Japan Nuclear Fuel Ltd. said there have been no problems at its nuclear fuel reprocessing facility in the village of Rokkasho in the prefecture.

About 840 households in five municipalities, including Kushiro and Urahoro, were temporarily without electricity, according to local authorities.

Some sections of the Doto and Obihiro-Hiroo expressways were briefly closed in the wake of the quake, the operator said.

Copyright 2013 Kyodo News

reply to post by wujotvowujotvowujotvo


Thanks for finding that

No 4's yet though

[color=lime](click image for interactive map, opens in new tab/window)

been 15 hours but I kept it to 12 for simplicity
only been 40 additional aftershocks since the 3 hrs mark
91 aftershocks on that map.

By comparison the Hirro, Hidaka Mts 6.1 of 25/08/2012 had
35 aftershocks at the 3 hr mark and
55 at the 12 hr mark and
100 at the 72 hrs mark.

I did an ANSS search for that one, and it takes in this latest location too,
not much history, just that one mag 7.0 mb of 23/04/1962
goo.gl...

I wish you could search NIED, bet there would be more than that, its only possible to get 7 days at a time, it would take weeks to get all the Hokkaido data and then narrow that down to Districts, only goes back to 2002 anyway.

Think this is most dangerous location for Central and Northern Italy, in time ahead or next 70 days ..

Also think in this 70 days we will have strong seizmic activity worldwide and M 8.0 + somewhere at "Ring of Fire" ..

Location for possible EQ of M 5.5 + ..




Also think EQ will very probably come somewhere here on this image, around town Barga..

Also have possibility that EQ will appear in next 2-3 days at this location ..

reply to post by MariaLida

What makes you say that?
current activity is at Norica, north of L'Aquilla

03/02/2013 16:36:07 42.7 13.2 10.3 Ml 1.8 ...
03/02/2013 16:34:47 42.7 13.2 10.5 Ml 2.3 ...
03/02/2013 16:34:37 42.7 13.2 10.6 Md 1.0 ...
02/02/2013 23:41:40 42.7 13.2 10.6 Ml 2.0 ...
iside.rm.ingv.it...

reply to post by muzzy


Just a feeling ..

And that feeling is founded on a lot of information and calculations from all that I know also from lots of different fields ..

I tell you my friend already is very hard and complicate to explain, can't say or explain one influence when my every prediction is based on at least ten of them ..

I learn is the best way just to post prediction without explaining and nothing else because many many reasons ..

EQ's cant be predicted on some formula and similar or with only one influence you must know all influences what effecting EQ's then come research and practices with every field, after that coming calculation and only after that you can rely on feeling and "try" to make accurate prediction ..

Need years and years to make some experience and you need to make at lest 200 prediction to your self to start to post public etc, that's the only also the real way.I could make every day prediction also in one day advance but that will be very irresponsible and I would make probably many mistakes

For example if you're raw-stiff-bad-mannered etc in your head and not a very flexible however you sounded nicely or intelligent you never will succeed in this only because at end you must feel all of this and feel where EQ will land, hope you not have some bad feelings about what I saying also because my bad explanation and writing ..

Much persons never will succeed in EQ prediction more of 95 % who are already know and learn much, but I think you are not in this 95 % good luck to you friend in that what you are doing ..

I'm on ATS from long time ago but don't posting, here have some people what know more of you but they don't have what you have and that is most important in this very very sensitive work ..

Originally posted by MariaLida
reply to post by muzzy

 

Just a feeling ..

And that feeling is founded on a lot of information and calculations from all that I know also from lots of different fields ..

I tell you my friend already is very hard and complicate to explain, can't say or explain one influence when my every prediction is based on at least ten of them ..

I learn is the best way just to post prediction without explaining and nothing else because many many reasons ..

EQ's cant be predicted on some formula or similar or with only one influence you must know all influences what effecting EQ's then come research and practices with every field, after that coming calculation and only after that you can depend on feeling and try to make accurate prediction in majority percentage ..

Need years and years to make some experience and you need to make at lest 200 prediction to your self to start to post public etc, that's the only also the real way ..

For example if you're raw-stiff-bad-mannered etc in your head and not a very flexible however you sounded nicely you never will succeed in this only because at end you must feel all of this, hope you not have some bad feelings about what I saying also because my bad explanation and writing ..

edit on 3-2-2013 by MariaLida because: (no reason given)

Do you have access to some of the monitoring equipment that the pros use ??

2nd.

reply to post by radpetey

You don't need to ask me again, I know very good is not smart to write much about EQ prediction ..

Yes I have and is not cheap one but that can't help you to predict EQ's or some EQ explorer, can help me and some of friends from other areas what have been in this lifetime ..

For example If I give you my data you never know what are they still if I explain to you and need a lot of time you will be again on zero in that field, I learning and I will probably spent all my life in this hope someday I be more accurate ..

Also have to0 many people what doing this only because ego staff, money, donate button, advertising their own website & and pretending that somebody else websites, we don't want some clowns or good actors also make EQ prediction a joke and making more unnecessary fear in humans for no reason at all etc etc ..

Whatever wants to extract any benefit from this will never make accurate predictions, maybe sometimes but that don't means nothing because anyone can make some accurate prediction one time or similar ..

I will write when times come for that and now is not suitably because of many many reasons, people would forecasting EQ's long time ago if this is not so complicate and sensitive in all of mentioned also not mentioned ..

I still go for an 8+ one down at the Solomons within the next 2 weeks

This weeks geophysical report can be found here

It has taken me the whole of the day doing little or nothing else to assemble the data and images required and I cannot spend further time doing a shortened version for ATS. Regrettably the ATS version has to be discontinued but I shall continue producing the report on my blog and there will be a link to it in my signature.

reply to post by MariaLida

Your top image in this post is from www.quakesim.org... Are connected with these scientists, or do you just use their analysis as a part of your prediction process?

MariaLida, I feel you mean well in advising others not to try earthquake predicting, but then you post your own predictions and want us to do what?

Take this for example:

Also think in this 70 days we will have strong seizmic activity worldwide and M 8.0 + somewhere at "Ring of Fire" ..

Let's look at a few facts. The ring of fire is over 40,000km long, 82% of all mag 8+ earthquakes since 1900 have occurred on the Pacific Ring of Fire, and a magnitude 8, or larger earthquake occurs once per year, statistically.

So, can you be more specific? A prognostication such as yours doesn't have much value to anyone that lives in this huge area. Most residents are aware that very large earthquakes are possible at any time.

In fact, this type of "prediction" smacks of the type you have spent the past few days railing against.
If a mag 8 does happen in your 10-week time frame, you get to say, "Look at me, I predicted this". And if one does not occur, you get to admonish us,"See, I told you how difficult this is and I have been "studying" for many years."

How is this vague "prediction" helpful?

Is anyone else having problems pulling up USGS? Been trying all day.

I got a message saying my DNS server is unavailable. Don't know what that means.

reply to post by crappiekat


I can pull up IRIS but Real Time Quakes is showing an error now

reply to post by ujustneverknow

I saw that. But for some reason csem-emsc feed is running. But it seem USGS is down all together.

reply to post by crappiekat


USGS running fine on remote downloads.

That message means your computer can't find the information to turn a web address into an IP address. Computers don't use www thinkgy dot com they use 999.999.999.999 and the DNS server translates the name to the number.

reply to post by Olivine


Well said Olivine.
And excellent detective work on the source of the image.
Interesting for a look at though.
I zoomed into NZ and its pretty much matches a hazard map that GNS put out after the Christchurch events of 2010.2011.
Japan is interesting though, I wonder when these were produced? prior to 02/02/2013???
Fukushima is all hot and red whereas Hokkaido is a misty yellow green and what just happened on 02/02/2013 ?? yep a 6.8Mw.
So that was off the mark if the map as produced prior to 02/02/2013

The colors indicate the probability of an M>6.5 earthquake within 50 km of each site during the next year. A scale is shown at left for reference. The forecast uses methods based on observational laws including the Gutenberg-Richter relation and Omori-Utsu aftershock frequency laws. When the parameters are fit to past observations, future probabilities can be computed. Data are taken from the ANSS catalog of global seismicity. A critical part of the process of forecasting is validation and verification through backtesting and monitoring. Tests that are used to assess the quality of the forecast are the Reliability/Attributes test, and the Receiver Operating Characteristic test. These tests can be used to ascertain forecast reliability, resolution, skill and sharpness. The WWRP/WGNE Joint Working Group on Forecast Verification Research has a good description of tests. (Rundle et al, 2012)

South Sandwich Islands looks ripe for a biggie.

Just had a 4.5 quake in Baguio City in the Philippines according to the latest bulletin from PHIVOLCS.
Felt like stronger being at 5th floor.
Lasted 5 seconds I guess.

please watch the cascadian zone over the next 24 hours. I dont know what this means in this area, but we had a 'tornado siren' go off in springfield/eugene oregon at 11:15 pm pt Sunday.
Considering the last quake we had off the coast [coos bay] i am keeping alert.
for all you watchers, please let me know. i am a new poster, bt not to this site, and what I experiieneced ttonight waS LIKE BEING IN THE MIDEAST AND not THE WEST COAST
I also seen several flashes of light before the siren went off.
???????

They do NOT have tornados in Oregon , so why the siren?????
If anyone else heard this, or seen the lights NORth of springfiend , please say so.

EDIT......I am going to try..one more time.......did ANYONE see,hear or feel ANYTHING in the ptz. 9cental oregon specificaly Springfield/ Eugene area?????

i am a lurker, not a regular poster,..... who has just recently moved from Kansas.
Hearing sirens to me is a new thing for this area.

[color=lime](click image for interactive map, opens in new tab/window)

another 49 aftershocks in the last 26 hours, a few spreading out, but mostly still bunched up between the main shock and Tokachi Airport to the SW.
because the area will return to background activity gradually I've set the coverage area to 100km from the mainshock.
The pattern of aftershocks helps confirm the size of area that slipped during the main shock
Still no 4's
looking for the Baths Law 1.1 to 1.2 ratio down biggest aftershock yet, should be a 5.6

OT but I do want to give thanks to Muzzy and PM.

And, thank you to all that help contribute to this thread. I'm reading, learning and appreciating the effort that all of you put into this.