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Quake Watch 2013
page: 137share:
Since I posted the first 6.2 this morning (NZ time) before going to work, there's been like 6 x near 6's today alone!
I can't remember any single day where there have been so MANY, without them being aftershocks to something much larger?
Also, really weird that these are all happening on the day that as Muzzy mentioned, is the 3 year anniversary of the Darfield 7.1
My gut tells me there's something BIGGER brewing
I can't remember any single day where there have been so MANY, without them being aftershocks to something much larger?
Also, really weird that these are all happening on the day that as Muzzy mentioned, is the 3 year anniversary of the Darfield 7.1
My gut tells me there's something BIGGER brewing
edit on 4-9-2013 by SpaceJockey1 because: spelling
reply to post by SpaceJockey1
This IS an unusual day!
Let's hope that does not become the understatement of the century!
This IS an unusual day!
Let's hope that does not become the understatement of the century!
reply to post by Elliot
Mag 6 and high end Mag 5's all round the northern part of the ring of fire, Merika about to lead us into WWIII, Fukushima radiation 18 time above normal, Portugal about to collapse, austerity killing economies all over Europe while lining the pockets of the elite - and of course ATS about to change it's theme to some ghastly mobile disaster.
Unusual? No sounds about normal to me!
ETA: A series of small seismograms from AK.ATKA from the Mag 7 to today so far.
This IS an unusual day!
Mag 6 and high end Mag 5's all round the northern part of the ring of fire, Merika about to lead us into WWIII, Fukushima radiation 18 time above normal, Portugal about to collapse, austerity killing economies all over Europe while lining the pockets of the elite - and of course ATS about to change it's theme to some ghastly mobile disaster.
Unusual? No sounds about normal to me!
ETA: A series of small seismograms from AK.ATKA from the Mag 7 to today so far.
edit on 4/9/2013 by PuterMan because: (no reason given)
Originally posted by PuterMan
Mag 6 and high end Mag 5's all round the northern part of the ring of fire, Merika about to lead us into WWIII, Fukushima radiation 18 time above normal, Portugal about to collapse, austerity killing economies all over Europe while lining the pockets of the elite - and of course ATS about to change it's theme to some ghastly mobile disaster.
Unusual? No sounds about normal to me!
You really should get out of this thread more.
Anyways, meanwhile back at the lab...
TA notices again that top magnitudes of Alaska quakes awful too close together, and issues mild warning for potential big one- that generate a megatsunami and destroy all warships at once...
While he also sees incoming quake about some 140 km's from Toba... (no joke)
edit on Wed Sep 4th 2013 by TrueAmerican because: (no reason
given)
One must get oneself down to the shops and do some panic buying, one thinks! : )
And as if all that wasn't enough, now Yellowstone is starting to fidget with a couple small quakes. Usually not an issue, but these appear to be
coming from somewhere near the Sour Creek Dome.
ANYWHERE, but there, please.
Crap, got a bigger now incoming at YS, same place. That one the USGS should post. *Gulp*. Don't sweetie, just stay calm... and crap, I gotta go to bed too... Oh no, not NOW!!
ANYWHERE, but there, please.
edit on Wed Sep 4th 2013 by TrueAmerican because: (no reason given)
Crap, got a bigger now incoming at YS, same place. That one the USGS should post. *Gulp*. Don't sweetie, just stay calm... and crap, I gotta go to bed too... Oh no, not NOW!!
edit on Wed Sep 4th 2013 by TrueAmerican because: (no reason given)
It was almost exactly a year ago when the 7 day quake tally of quakes 2.5Mag or over, which usually sits between 150 - 250 for a 7 day period jumped
incredibly to over 600 - about One year and two weeks ago - 365 + 14 = 378 / 2 = 189, anyone remember the 188 day Cycle?
www.abovetopsecret.com...
www.abovetopsecret.com...
Originally posted by PuterMan
reply to post by Elliot
This IS an unusual day!
Mag 6 and high end Mag 5's all round the northern part of the ring of fire, Merika about to lead us into WWIII, Fukushima radiation 18 time above normal, Portugal about to collapse, austerity killing economies all over Europe while lining the pockets of the elite - and of course ATS about to change it's theme to some ghastly mobile disaster.
Unusual? No sounds about normal to me!
PM, you paint a pretty MEAN picture!
Something mean and nasty coming up is on the cards....
This woke me up, quite severe, probably due to the time and the location ( back near the first July 5.7. 5.8, 6.5's in the middle of Cook Strait)
(6-12km N)
SNZO.IU.00.BHZ.2013.247[editby ]edit on 4-9-2013 by muzzy because: (no reason given)
Public ID 2013p666224
Universal Time September 4 2013 at 12:04:10
NZ Standard Time Thursday, September 5 2013 at 12:04:10 am
Latitude, Longitude -41.5003, 174.4235
Intensity ? strong
Focal Depth 16 km
Magnitude 5.1 (5.0729)
Location 35 km north-east of Seddon
Agency WEL(GNS_Primary)
Status ? reviewed
Total Reports: 2025
www.geonet.org.nz...
SNZO.IU.00.BHZ.2013.247[editby ]edit on 4-9-2013 by muzzy because: (no reason given)
reply to post by TrueAmerican
Hi TA....don't know if you remember me, but anyway...I have been gone for a pretty long time and just came back to ATS.....I was wondering if you could tell me the name of the guy who works at USGS who posted here on occasion ......John ? If you know who I am referring to could you remind me of his last name? BTW nice to be back and I hope you and everyone else are doing well!
Hi TA....don't know if you remember me, but anyway...I have been gone for a pretty long time and just came back to ATS.....I was wondering if you could tell me the name of the guy who works at USGS who posted here on occasion ......John ? If you know who I am referring to could you remind me of his last name? BTW nice to be back and I hope you and everyone else are doing well!
reply to post by muzzy
This could mean that another 6+ may come during next 5 days,but important is the china.
Is the china okay?
Is the china okay?
reply to post by StealthyKat
Happy to have you back!.. I know the questions was directed at TA - but he must be sleeping = John Vidale :-)
He's most likely very busy today with all the activity going on.
Happy to have you back!.. I know the questions was directed at TA - but he must be sleeping = John Vidale :-)
He's most likely very busy today with all the activity going on.
Here you goreply to
post by StealthyKat
Hi StealthyKat. Missed you. You always have interesting posts, and a good sense of humor.
Hope This helps you out. Nice person
Not the correct link. Give me a few to get it.
Well Dang. PNSN dropped that page. Nice blog from John about Mt St.Helens. Anyway this still gives you a way to contact him if you want.
Hi StealthyKat. Missed you. You always have interesting posts, and a good sense of humor.
Hope This helps you out. Nice person
Not the correct link. Give me a few to get it.
edit on 4-9-2013 by crappiekat because: (no reason given)
edit on 4-9-2013 by
crappiekat because: (no reason given)
edit on 4-9-2013 by crappiekat because: (no reason given)
edit on 4-9-2013 by
crappiekat because: (no reason given)
Here you
goedit on 4-9-2013 by crappiekat because: (no reason given)
Well Dang. PNSN dropped that page. Nice blog from John about Mt St.Helens. Anyway this still gives you a way to contact him if you want.
edit
on 4-9-2013 by crappiekat because: (no reason given)
reply to post by piequal3because14
The figurines are taking a nap ( laying down in the cabinet) for now.
Having trouble replacing the ones that broke, was a limited edition.
Repairing them isn't an option as they wouldn't be worth anywhere near what they were before.
Wee bit concerned about that 5.1, the most northerly of the 4.5+ events in the last 9 weeks, and since the 6.6 at Lake Grassmere (2nd 6) the aftershocks were trending into the foothils on the south side of the Awatere Valley.
Means closer to the Wellington Fault.
I'll be making sure I have plenty of water (to drink) and snacks and warm clothes with me when I go to work in the Hutt Valley the next 2 weeks, there are multiple bridges that could collapse and steep hills that could landslide between there and home in a big earthquake. Its quite a walk (50km), but its do-able even if the bridges are out. Maybe I should chuck a sleeping bag in the van!.
The figurines are taking a nap ( laying down in the cabinet) for now.
Having trouble replacing the ones that broke, was a limited edition.
Repairing them isn't an option as they wouldn't be worth anywhere near what they were before.
Wee bit concerned about that 5.1, the most northerly of the 4.5+ events in the last 9 weeks, and since the 6.6 at Lake Grassmere (2nd 6) the aftershocks were trending into the foothils on the south side of the Awatere Valley.
Means closer to the Wellington Fault.
I'll be making sure I have plenty of water (to drink) and snacks and warm clothes with me when I go to work in the Hutt Valley the next 2 weeks, there are multiple bridges that could collapse and steep hills that could landslide between there and home in a big earthquake. Its quite a walk (50km), but its do-able even if the bridges are out. Maybe I should chuck a sleeping bag in the van!.
Sleeping bag, small tent if you have one, LED flashlight, lighter.
reply to post by TrueAmerican
Most of that list do not appear in this thread. I do get out of the thread but onto other sites than ATS.
One magnitude difference is NOT a rule. It is a theory, or observation, but in the world of earthquakes things change. As I delight in pointing out, to base a rule on such a short period of reference by comparison to the age of the earth is just plain silly.
There are many places where this does not occur, most notably after the largest quakes. Main shock/aftershock, or swarm? Who knows? And if a swarm has alarger quake were the preceding one foreshocks?
You really should get out of this thread more
Most of that list do not appear in this thread. I do get out of the thread but onto other sites than ATS.
One magnitude difference is NOT a rule. It is a theory, or observation, but in the world of earthquakes things change. As I delight in pointing out, to base a rule on such a short period of reference by comparison to the age of the earth is just plain silly.
There are many places where this does not occur, most notably after the largest quakes. Main shock/aftershock, or swarm? Who knows? And if a swarm has alarger quake were the preceding one foreshocks?
reply to post by muzzy
If there's any chance you might have to hike any distance that changes things!
Backpack, 3 waterproof tarps or sheets of plastic, rope, gloves, waterproof poncho,
warm clothes, spare, sturdy, already broken-in, hiking boots & lots of socks.
A sleeping bag & tent would be a lot to hike with.
If you had warm clothes & some tarps or plastic sheeting, you could wrap up in one,
tie the rope between 2 trees, throw the other tarp over it for a shelter, &
put one down for a ground cover.
One of those forehead mounted reading lights,
so you can make a fire in the woods, in the dark with both hands free...
or anything else you need to do with hands free!!!
A compass & paper map if you aren't extremely familiar with the area & have to find detours!
One of those water bottles with the built in filter to be able to drink stream/rain water.
How are the steams there, safe?
If you have to hoof it, a water supply will be very heavy to carry!
Some spare cash so once you get to a main, intact road,
you can take public transportation, (assuming it's running!),
or offer somebody money to drive you somewhere!
Geeze...it's getting sooo involved!!!
Let's just hope it never comes to that...but if bridges go....!
Look how long construction takes under ideal circumstances!!!
Sigh! Plan for the worst...but hope for the best!
That sounds familiar?
WOQ
If there's any chance you might have to hike any distance that changes things!
Backpack, 3 waterproof tarps or sheets of plastic, rope, gloves, waterproof poncho,
warm clothes, spare, sturdy, already broken-in, hiking boots & lots of socks.
A sleeping bag & tent would be a lot to hike with.
If you had warm clothes & some tarps or plastic sheeting, you could wrap up in one,
tie the rope between 2 trees, throw the other tarp over it for a shelter, &
put one down for a ground cover.
One of those forehead mounted reading lights,
so you can make a fire in the woods, in the dark with both hands free...
or anything else you need to do with hands free!!!
A compass & paper map if you aren't extremely familiar with the area & have to find detours!
One of those water bottles with the built in filter to be able to drink stream/rain water.
How are the steams there, safe?
If you have to hoof it, a water supply will be very heavy to carry!
Some spare cash so once you get to a main, intact road,
you can take public transportation, (assuming it's running!),
or offer somebody money to drive you somewhere!
Geeze...it's getting sooo involved!!!
Let's just hope it never comes to that...but if bridges go....!
Look how long construction takes under ideal circumstances!!!
Sigh! Plan for the worst...but hope for the best!
That sounds familiar?
WOQ
Is it just me, or are you "professionals" getting nervous about what is going on right now?
Please note: I mean that in the most respectfully way, while I don't post here much, I subscribe to this thread and have been following it from the start, and even did the 2012 thread. A handful of you have obviously made this more than just a hobby, so I do trust what you say.
I really am curious about the "vibe" of the postings today. (And tomorrow, in Muzzy's case! )
Please note: I mean that in the most respectfully way, while I don't post here much, I subscribe to this thread and have been following it from the start, and even did the 2012 thread. A handful of you have obviously made this more than just a hobby, so I do trust what you say.
I really am curious about the "vibe" of the postings today. (And tomorrow, in Muzzy's case! )
It's probably nothing but I wanted to let people know that 1st of all I'm in Great Falls, Montana. We're in the middle of a 90' heat wave...
Still! It's been shamefully hot here all dang Summer. Anyways...
I'm here at home and I've heard at least 10 birds hit my windows of my house. I've been here 10 yrs and have only heard maybe 2 a week. I have a dog and she's acting fine ... I just think it strange so many are hitting today . So far only 1 has died. ( that I know of ) and it was a robin.
I'm here at home and I've heard at least 10 birds hit my windows of my house. I've been here 10 yrs and have only heard maybe 2 a week. I have a dog and she's acting fine ... I just think it strange so many are hitting today . So far only 1 has died. ( that I know of ) and it was a robin.
reply to post by TrueAmerican
I did not have time to get round to this part before our meal tonight so here I am back again.
What I find interesting about these Alaskan quakes is that there seems to be three distinct areas in play here
Here we have (in the same area as the current quakes) little series. Are they foreshocks to the mag 6?
Data from ANSS
If the 5.9 was the start then all of the quakes were less than 1 magnitude and even after the Mag 6 it was followed by 3 x 5.2.
Actually it is difficult to find any specific pattern as many are single one off quakes, but every one so far has aftershocks less than one magnitude.
Before this recent one 1996 was the last Mag 7, and this particular area 3 deg of latitude by 4 degrees of longitude has only 30 over Mag 6 in the ANSS database up to the end of 2012 and just 7 of Mag 7+
The 8.6 in 1857 follows the rule with a 7.2 following, but that is the only one.
I accept that I am looking at a small area - very roughly 300km square, but the 'rule' fails on virtually every occasion.
The pattern of several small 5+ followed by a 6+ seems to be common in the next box over as well. In 1971 a 7.1 was followed by a bunch of 5+, and again in 1975 a 6.5 was followed by a 5.1
In fact in the second box there are more instances of compliance but also many of non compliance and some weird ones like a 7.1 followed by a 5.
The third box is more compliant with the rule than not but again some weird ones, 7.4 followed by a bunch of 5.1 and ending in a 5.4
Even if the compliant sequences were 50% of the quakes which they might be perhaps, I don't think that makes a rule.
It would take a much deeper study to get the exact numbers but it is my belief that in this Aleutian arc the rule of one mag lower is by no means "the rule".
TA notices again that top magnitudes of Alaska quakes awful too close together, and issues mild warning for potential big one- that generate a megatsunami and destroy all warships at once...
I did not have time to get round to this part before our meal tonight so here I am back again.
What I find interesting about these Alaskan quakes is that there seems to be three distinct areas in play here
Here we have (in the same area as the current quakes) little series. Are they foreshocks to the mag 6?
ANSS40899034007 1986-05-08T01:06:15.610Z 51.60800 -174.69700 5.3000 Mb 33.0000 ANSS40899034008 1986-05-08T01:11:02.250Z 51.08700 -176.66700 5.9000 Mb 33.0000 ANSS40899034009 1986-05-08T01:15:15.030Z 51.18900 -176.81300 5.6000 Mb 33.0000 ANSS40899034010 1986-05-08T01:18:00.920Z 51.16100 -176.5650 0 5.4000 Mb 33.0000 ANSS40899034011 1986-05-08T01:20:57.000Z 51.14700 -176.90000 5.1000 Mb 33.0000 ANSS40899034012 1986-05-08T01:22:46.900Z 51.20400 - 176.90100 5.2000 Mb 33.0000 ANSS40899034013 1986-05-08T01:30:54.860Z 51.18400 -176.77700 5.2000 Unk 33.0000 ANSS40899034014 1986-05-08T01:45:19.300Z 5 1.00200 -176.95400 5.0000 Unk 33.0000 ANSS40899034015 1986-05-08T01:54:12.300Z 51.18600 -176.06200 5.1000 Mb 33.0000 ANSS40899034016 1986-05-08T02:04: 00.300Z 51.16400 -176.88700 5.5000 Mb 33.0000 ANSS40899034017 1986-05-08T02:32:54.850Z 51.33300 -174.81100 5.1000 Mb 33.0000 ANSS40899034018 1986-05-0 8T02:59:39.590Z 51.43200 -175.88400 5.0000 Mb 33.0000 ANSS40899034019 1986-05-08T03:23:40.600Z 51.15200 -176.64600 5.0000 Mb 33.0000 ANSS40899034020 1 986-05-08T03:44:06.700Z 51.31800 -175.24400 5.1000 Mb 33.0000 ANSS40899034021 1986-05-08T03:52:51.450Z 51.18400 -176.69000 5.2000 Mb 33.0000 ANSS40899 034022 1986-05-08T04:03:50.080Z 51.14000 -176.44200 5.8000 Mb 33.0000 ANSS40899034023 1986-05-08T04:27:58.640Z 51.37900 -176.15900 5.1000 Mb 33.0000 A NSS40899034024 1986-05-08T04:32:20.670Z 51.53500 -174.70800 5.0000 Mb 33.0000 ANSS40899034025 1986-05-08T04:45:17.720Z 51.37000 -174.13600 5.4000 Mb 3 3.0000 ANSS40899034026 1986-05-08T05:37:20.260Z 51.33600 -175.36300 6.0000 Mb 18.1000 ANSS40899034027 1986-05-08T06:04:18.770Z 51.10600 -176.12000 5.2 000 Mb 33.0000 ANSS40899034028 1986-05-08T06:41:59.860Z 51.37000 -176.16500 5.2000 Unk 33.0000 ANSS40899034029 1986-05-08T06:50:05.530Z 51.22700 -176. 32800 5.2000 Mb 33.0000
Data from ANSS
If the 5.9 was the start then all of the quakes were less than 1 magnitude and even after the Mag 6 it was followed by 3 x 5.2.
ANSS40899058000 2002-11-26T00:48:15.040Z 51.46500 -173.53700 6.1000 Mw 20.6000 ANSS40899058001 2002-11-26T04:33:38.890Z 51.55200 -173.65800 5.2000 Mw 33.0000
Actually it is difficult to find any specific pattern as many are single one off quakes, but every one so far has aftershocks less than one magnitude.
ANSS40899072965 2010-10-08T03:26:13.710Z 51.37400 -175.36100 6.4000 Mw 19.0000 ANSS40899072966 2010-10-08T03:49:10.720Z 51.28700 -175.18000 6.0000 Mw 27.7000 ANSS40899072967 2010-10-08T04:19:14.920Z 51.33400 -175.20300 5.7000 Mw 6.5000
Before this recent one 1996 was the last Mag 7, and this particular area 3 deg of latitude by 4 degrees of longitude has only 30 over Mag 6 in the ANSS database up to the end of 2012 and just 7 of Mag 7+
ANSS40899000006 1903-01-17T16:05:07.100Z 50.85000 -175.16000 7.0000 ML 0.0000 ANSS40899000052 1926-10-13T19:08:07.000Z 52.00000 -176.00000 7.1000 ML 25.0000 ANSS40899000111 1946-11-01T11:14:24.000Z 51.50000 -174.50000 7.0000 ML 40.0000 ANSS40899000157 1957-03-09T14:22:32.150Z 51.47000 -175.72000 8.6000 ML 33.0000 ANSS40899000162 1957-03-14T14:47:50.970Z 51.24000 -176.91000 7.2000 ML 33.0000 ANSS40899033984 1986-05-07T22:47:10.870Z 51.52000 -1 74.77600 7.7000 Ms 33.0000 ANSS40899049626 1996-06-10T15:24:56.000Z 51.47800 -176.84700 7.3000 Me 26.3000
The 8.6 in 1857 follows the rule with a 7.2 following, but that is the only one.
I accept that I am looking at a small area - very roughly 300km square, but the 'rule' fails on virtually every occasion.
The pattern of several small 5+ followed by a 6+ seems to be common in the next box over as well. In 1971 a 7.1 was followed by a bunch of 5+, and again in 1975 a 6.5 was followed by a 5.1
In fact in the second box there are more instances of compliance but also many of non compliance and some weird ones like a 7.1 followed by a 5.
The third box is more compliant with the rule than not but again some weird ones, 7.4 followed by a bunch of 5.1 and ending in a 5.4
Even if the compliant sequences were 50% of the quakes which they might be perhaps, I don't think that makes a rule.
It would take a much deeper study to get the exact numbers but it is my belief that in this Aleutian arc the rule of one mag lower is by no means "the rule".